Officials of the World Health Organization (WHO) stated on January 11 that the difference between the latest variant of the new coronavirus, XBB. It is so large that it needs to be named separately with other Greek letters.
Maria van Kerkhoff, technical director of the World Health Organization’s response to the new crown epidemic, said at a press conference that although the XBB. It surpasses other popular strains such as BQ.1.1, but it still belongs to the Omicron family.
Most of the recent confirmed cases of the new coronavirus in the northeastern United States have been infected with XBB.1.5. Canadian biology professor Ryan Gregory recently gave it the nickname “Kraken” – a sea monster in Norse mythology. Professor Gregory believes that these new mainstream mutant strains should have a memorable name, so as to convey to the public the threat of the mutated Omicron virus, rather than just a string of letters and numbers. However, the mutated strain of the new coronavirus is named by the World Health Organization. Since Omicron was named a year ago, the organization has not named a new strain with other Greek letters. The Michelon family has not yet mutated into a new strain that would require renaming.
The immune evasion ability of XBB.1.5 against past infections and vaccines was about the same as that of previous XBB strains. According to a risk assessment of XBB.1.5 released by the World Health Organization on January 11, XBB.1.5 and BQ.1 are currently the two strains with the strongest immune escape ability, but the immune escape ability of XBB.1.5 seems to be Not significantly stronger than BQ.1.
At present, we also do not know whether XBB.1.5 will cause more severe symptoms than other new coronavirus strains.
The World Health Organization warned that its confidence in the assessment was “very low” due to a lack of data from outside the United States. The group concluded that the new strain “has the potential to lead to an increase in cases,” but did not make a specific prediction. The World Health Organization calls on countries to compare the transmission speed of XBB.1.5 with other strains in the next 1 to 3 weeks, then study its immune evasion ability in the next 2 to 6 weeks, and in the next 4 weeks Study its pathogenicity in weeks to 12 weeks.
Van Kerkhoff pointed out that the latest Omicron mutant strains are “the same in other behavior patterns” except that they are more and more transmissible. She also said that the World Health Organization expects that as the new coronavirus continues to mutate, it will have a higher transmission advantage and immune escape ability.
Once new mutant strains emerge with different behavior patterns, “we won’t be afraid to use new Greek letters,” she said.
As the coronavirus pandemic drags on, officials at the World Health Organization are debating how to better classify the strains. “If there is a different way to describe these variants in the future, we will announce that at that time,” van Kerkhoff said.
Experts believe that the current naming method is not desirable
With the continuous mutation of the new coronavirus, the World Health Organization decided to name it with Greek letters, but omitted some letters that could easily lead to misunderstanding or ambiguity due to various reasons, such as Nu, Xi, etc.
In a recent interview with Fortune, Gregory said that, in general, this nomenclature works, but it no longer applies to Omicron.
New variants of the Omicron family are increasingly infectious and immune-evading, able to evade previous infections and vaccinations. So it is no longer appropriate to use code names such as “Omicron” or XBB.1.5 to name them.
Based on input from professionals and “citizen scientists” around the world, Gregory compiled a series of memorable names from Norse mythology and other fields to name recent strains considered by medical scientists to pose a greater threat. Rong (centaur monster in Greek mythology), Argos (hundred-eyed giant), Basilisk (basilisk), Typhoon (Titan giant symbolizing storm) and so on. In doing so, he was inspired by a Twitter user who named the Omicron BA.2.75 strain “Centaur” in the summer of 2022, which was also adopted by the media and some experts. nickname.
After Gregory dubbed the virus “Kraken” shortly after Christmas, the name went viral, according to Bloomberg. Many domestic and foreign media, including “Insider” and Sky News, have adopted this nickname. The name “centaur” first appeared in several journal articles and was later used by prominent media such as Nature and the Guardian. The monikers have also become hashtags on Twitter.
Experts such as Gregory said that there are many mutant strains in the Omicron family. If these mutant strains have not been named, the public is likely to have misconceptions about them-for example, they mistakenly believe that the virus has not evolved, or that the virus has not evolved. Infection with Omicron once a few months ago will protect against the new Omicron mutant strain, which is not the case.
There is also a scientific basis for the World Health Organization not to name these new strains individually, because these new Omicron variant strains can still be traced back to the previous Omicron variant strains. But Dr. Eric Topol, founder of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, told Fortune in the fall of 2022 that such an approach is not advisable.
“And that’s not a good excuse for not naming them,” he said. “I would suggest that they give these strains individual names, because the public won’t be able to properly understand the numbers.”
Topol said he suggested renaming the BA.5 strain, which has recently become popular around the world, after the Greek letter Pi or Sigma because it is similar to the original Omicron BA.1 and the so-called “stealth Omicron”. “BA.2″ has a huge difference.”
He also said at the time that the recently emerged BQ.1.1 and XBB strains should also be named with separate Greek letters, because researchers believe they have “extreme immune evasion capabilities and resistance to monoclonal antibodies.”
“They should be named with individual Greek letters, not something someone invented,” he said of the new strains. “If the names were taken by different people, they would be as incomprehensible as the numbers and letters.”
“Kraken” that occupies a dominant position in the United States
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) on January 6, 18% of the confirmed cases of new coronavirus infection in the United States last week were caused by XBB.1.5. XBB.1.5 is a new strain formed by the recombination of two BA.2 sublines. The strain is expected to account for 28% of confirmed cases across the U.S. this week, making it the second-highest number of cases in the U.S., according to a Jan. 5 memo from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control. popular strain, and may soon become the most prevalent strain in the United States.
According to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, the number of cases caused by “Kraken” is doubling every nine days. Van Kerkhoff of the World Health Organization said last week that it is by far the most infectious mutant strain of the new coronavirus in the world. Due to its ultra-high infectivity, experts from all over the world are paying close attention to it.
Van Kerkhoff also pointed out last week that the XBB.1.5 strain is spreading rapidly in the northeastern United States, but it is unclear whether it has contributed to the increase in hospitalizations in the region. Some of the experts Fortune interviewed this week also endorsed her assessment. They caution, however, that XBB.1.5 is likely to have contributed somewhat to the region’s hospitalization rate. And as it spreads westward, the increase in hospitalizations is likely to spread as well.
Dr. Bruce Lee, a professor of health policy and management at the City University of New York School of Public Health, told Fortune: “If XBB. The increase in hospitalizations will also spread across the United States.”
While the majority of confirmed cases of XBB.1.5 have come from the United States (82%), the United Kingdom (8%) and Denmark (2%), the strain has also emerged in 38 other countries, according to the World Health Organization. According to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, these countries include Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden, among others.
A European public health organization recently stated that although “Kraken” may become the mainstream variant strain in the United States in the near future, its current transmission level in the UK is still low, so it is unlikely to become the mainstream strain in the UK in the past month . (Fortune Chinese website)
Translated by: Park Sung Kyu
New Omicron variant XBB.1.5, dubbed Kraken, doesn’t differ enough from other Omicron strains to warrant its own Greek letter, WHO officials said on January 11.
While Kraken, rapidly growing in the US, is “incredibly transmissible” and spreads faster than other circulating variants like BQ.1.1, it still belongs in the Omicron family, Maria Van Kerkhove, technical lead for COVID-19 response at the WHO, said at a news conference.
Canadian biology professor Ryan Gregory recently nicknamed the “high-flying” variant—the projected cause of the majority of COVID cases in the US Northeast—after the aggressive mythological Scandinavian sea monster Kraken. New variants rising to prominence need memorable names that conve public the evolving threat of Omicron, he argues, instead of just a string of numbers and letters. The WHO, in charge of assigning Greek letters to significant new COVID variants, hasn’t assigned a variant a new letter since Omicron roughly a year ago , arguing that developing variants haven’t evolved enough to warrant a new moniker.
XBB.1.5 is expected to escape immunity from prior infection and vaccination at about the same level as XBB, from which it evolved. XBB and BQ.1 COVID variants are the most immune-evasive yet—but it doesn’t appear that XBB. 1.5 takes that evasiveness much, if any, further, according to a risk assessment of XBB. 1.5 released on January 11 by the WHO.
It’s still unknown whether illness caused by XBB.1.5 is more severe than that caused by other recent COVID strains.
The WHO cautioned that its confidence in its assessment is “low” due to a lack of data from outside the US It concluded only that the new variant “may contribute” to a rise in cases, but did not say where. The report called on countries that have identified the variant within their borders to report on how rapidly it’s growing compared to other variants, in the next one to three weeks; on how immune-evasive it might be, in the next two to six weeks; and on its severity , in the next four to 12 weeks.
So far, new Omicron strains are all “behaving in the same way,” aside from becoming increasingly more effective at spreading, Van Kerkhove said, adding that the WHO expects to see more growth advantage and immune escape in variants as they evolve.
When new variants begin behaving differently, “we’re not afraid to use these Greek letters,” she said.
WHO officials are discussing how to classify variants as the pandemic continues, she added: “If we can come up with different ways to describe these variants in the future, that will be announced.”
No “good defense” for not assigning new Greek letters, expert says
When COVID variants began materializing, the WHO devised the strategy of naming them after Greek letters, skipping some that might be confusing—like Nu, which sounds like “new,” which would apply to all variants at some point—or offensive to some, like Xi, the surname of China’s president.
Generally, the approach worked, Gregory recently told Fortune. But Omicron muddled matters.
New strains of Omicron are becoming increasingly more transmissible and evasive, with the ability to dodge immunity from prior vaccination and infection. Using the term “Omicron” or something like XBB.1.5 to describe them just isn’t cutting it anymore, he said.
With input from both professional and “citizen” scientists around the globe, Gregory has compiled a list of memorable monikers from Greek mythology and other realms—Chiron, Argus, Basilisk, and Typhon—for the Omicron spawn that medical experts believe pose the greatest threats in the near future. He was inspired by a Twitter user who dubbed the Omicron strain BA.2.75 “Centaurus” this summer, and saw the media and some experts pick up the moniker.
Since Gregory began using the name Kraken—an aggressive sea monster from Scandinavian folklore—shortly after Christmas, it has quickly gained steam, as reported by Bloomberg. The term has been picked up by a host of other international and national news and outlets including Inside Sky News. Centaurus was named in journal articles and used by the likes of Nature and the Guardian. And some variant trackers are now using the proposed names as hashtags on Twitter.
Experts like Gregory worry that a lack of new and specific names for Omicron variants could lead members of the public to draw false conclusions—like that the virus isn’t evolving, or that a months-ago infection with Omicron will confer protection against newer strains of Omicron, which isn’t necessarily true.
The WHO’s resistance to assigning new names is based in science, since new Omicron variants can be traced back to older Omicron variants. But it’s not practical, Dr. Eric Topol, a professor of molecular medicine at Scripps Research and founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, told Fortune last fall.
“And it’s not a good defense for not naming them,” he added. “I would implore them to do so. The public can’t keep these numbers straight.”
Topol said he would have called BA.5, dominant globally until recently, Pi or Sigma because it’s “so distinct” from the original Omicron, BA.1, as well as the so-called stealth Omicron, or BA.2.
Two particularly worrying recent variants—BQ.1.1 and XBB—should have also been assigned Greek letters because researchers have called them “extreme in terms of immune-evasiveness and resistance to monoclonal antibodies,” he said at the time.
“They could be given new Greek letters names instead of the ones some people invent,” he said of the new strains. “If different people are going to make up names, it’s going to be just as confusing as the numbers or letters.”
Kraken on track for US dominance
XBB.1.5—a recombinant, or combination, of two Omicron BA.2 strains—was behind 18% of COVID cases nationally last week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said on January 6. It’s projected to be behind 28 % of cases this week, making it the second most common variant in the US—and putting it on track to become the most dominant in the States, according to a Jan. 5 memo from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) .
Kraken is estimated to double the number of people it sickens every nine days, according to the ECDC’s report. Experts are eyeing it because of its ultrahigh transmissibility, with Van Kerkhove saying last week that it’s the most transmissible COVID variant the world has dated .
It’s unknown if the variant is contributing to a rise in hospitalizations in the northeast US, where it’s thriving, Van Kerkhove said last week. In conversations with Fortune this week, experts echoed her assessment. But they cautioned that Kraken is likely playing a at least part in the regional rise in hospitalizations—and that the rise could spread, as levels of Kraken flow westward in greater volume.
“The rise in hospitalizations being seen in the Northeast may eventually be seen throughout the US, if the XBB.1.5 subvariant is helping fuel this rise and this subvariant continues to spread throughout the rest of the country,” Dr. Bruce Y. Lee, Professor of health policy and management at the City University of New York School of Public Health, told Fortune.
While the bulk of XBB.1.5 sequences (82%) have been reported from the US, in addition to the UK (8%) and Denmark (2%), the new variant has been seen in 38 countries, according to the WHO. Those countries include the UK, Austria, Belgium, Czechia, Denmark, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden, according to the ECDC.
While Kraken could become the dominant variant in the US in short order, it’s not expected to dominate the UK within the coming month, if at all, due to low levels of circulation currently taking place there, the European public health organization recently said.
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