Is the U.S. stock bull market ending or continuing? Wall Street is divided

The bull market in U.S. stocks that began in 2013 is entering its 10th year, and the upward trend could continue into 2027, according to Stephen Suttmeier, a technical strategist at Bank of America. That optimistic view stands in stark contrast to pessimistic Wall Street peers.

Suttmeier said that the bull market that started in 1980 lasted until 2000 (20 years), and the bull market that started in 1950 lasted until 1966 (16 years). On the basis of past bull markets, the current bull market that started in 2013 is expected to continue. .

Suttmeier said the long bull market from 1950 to 1966 started with low interest rates, like now, and didn’t end until the 10-year rate hit 5%.

Suttmeier said the long-term cycle of U.S. 10-year Treasury yields is much longer than the long-term cycle of the S&P 500. During the bond bull market (falling yields) from 1920 to 1945, the stock market went through a bull market and a bear market after that. During the bond bear market (rising yields) from 1945 to 1981, the stock market also experienced bull and bear markets. During the bond bull market of 1981-2020, the stock market went through the first seven years of a bull market, a bear market, and another bull market.

Suttmeier said the 2020 pullback marks the “half time” of the current bull market and suggests that the uptrend can continue into 2027. This year, the S&P 500 has resistance at 5,000 and support at 4,800.

But cyclical bear markets weigh on longer-term bull markets. On Friday, the S&P 500 managed to hold a downside test level of 3,800. The 200-week moving average at 3475 is also a major test point.

Unlike the optimistic Suttmeier, Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson believes that the bear market rally has begun, and the decline in U.S. stocks is not over. Wilson expects the S&P 500 to end the year at 3,400.

Additionally, Goldman Sachs said a recession would push the S&P 500 to 3,600.

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