1. Interpretation of coal production and consumption data
1. In 2022, coal production will be 4.45 billion tons, and coal imports will be 290 million tons. This is bright data, a record high. In 2021, I predict that the expected coal consumption data in 2030 will be like this.
2. How much water is there in the data in 2022? How to interpret it?
Some say that the quality of raw coal has declined, and some say that coal gangue has been mixed. It is said that the table is turned into the table. The data I have clearly obtained is only one item, which is that the unit coal consumption of Shenhua Power Plant has increased, which is calculated by ton, not standard coal.
Year, power generation (100 million kWh), coal consumption (million tons), 100 billion kWh coal consumption (10,000 tons)
2019, 1487, 64.5, 4337
2020, 1318.5, 57.9, 4391
2021, 1618.6, 71.4, 4411
2022 half year, 825.9, 38.1, 4613
2. Potential for increasing production of coal mines
1. Production growth. According to my observation, the coal mines of listed companies belong to those with good resource conditions, advanced technology and transparent data. In 2022, there will be no growth in Shenhua underground mines throughout the year, and about 5% growth in open-pit coal mines. Shaanxi coal industry increased by about 10%. China Coal Energy increased by about 4.5%. It should be said that this is the most advanced coal mine in China. What about other coal mine data? For individual investors, it is basically blank.
2. There are methods to increase production in existing coal mines. To put it simply, one is to speed up the excavation and establish a new working face faster. In fact, it is not easy. The second is to increase the new working surface. It is more difficult and requires layers of approval and technical upgrades.
3. Will it stabilize at an average of 12.5 million tons per day in the future? It is estimated that people in the industry can give a clear explanation.
The data relationship between the withdrawal of original production capacity, the addition of new production capacity and the increase in nuclear capacity is complex enough. I can’t tell.
3. Whether the domestic coal price rises or falls
At present, practitioners in the coal industry and senior investors investing in the coal industry mostly believe that it will be stable at a high level. I personally think that investors in other industries, such as thermal power investors, can just read the opinions, and don’t take it seriously. Many coal researchers and coal investors have not studied and understood the relationship between supply and demand. You can’t point to laymen to guide experts.
My view is, in the short term. The supply of coal has indeed increased, and the price of coal now depends on demand. There are too many variables in the demand for coal in 2023, and it is difficult for me to analyze it personally. However, I set a certain amount. When the demand is poor, the 5,500 kcal at the port is less than 700 yuan, and the 5,800 kcal at Yulin is less than 550 yuan. It is unlikely. If under this coal price, investors feel that the dividends they get are acceptable, then there is no problem.
Fourth, the full cost of coal mines
For investors, it is actually not easy to interpret the cost. I have studied for 2 years, and I can see that Yankuang Energy’s cost control is really good. Shaanxi Coal and Shenhua can control costs, but the cost of raw materials, fuel, power and labor has risen too fast in the past two years.
Difference between cost of sales, complete cost, and production cost? What is the impact of lower production on costs? Coal mine cost in vitro of listed companies? Neither is known.
5. The authenticity and ease of mining of coal reserves
1. Geological condition factors, coal reserves depend on the sampling data measured by drilling. However, underground water, rock and other geological conditions affect the amount of extraction during mining.
2. Mining factors. Shaanxi is mined according to the panel area, a panel area is 2-5 years, and the panel area mined earlier is generally slightly easier to mine. The latter might not be bad either. In some places, it is said that the upper seam coal is dug first, and then the deep area is dug, which is much worse.
3. The authenticity of reserves of small coal mines and technically upgraded coal mines. Due to factors such as refunds and combined reserves of technically upgraded coal mines, the reported reserves of coal mines are too large. And a serious waste of resources.
This is just me, a beginner’s chatter.
$Shaanxi Coal Industry(SH601225)$ $Yankuang Energy(SH600188)$ $China Shenhua(SH601088)$
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