$Yinhua Tianji-Quietly Ying(TIA05031)$ $Yinhua Tianji-Niannianhong(TIAA041001)$
As of the close on January 17, since the beginning of 2023, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 4.37% to close at 3224.24 points, the ChiNext Index closed up 8.47% to close at 2545.55 points, and the CSI 300 closed up 6.86% to close at 4137.24 points. point. It can be said that it exceeded market expectations and was too strong (Wind, 2023.01.17).
So what will the follow-up market development look like? Is there any possibility of continuing to exceed market expectations?
We think the answer is yes, and we will give our logical deduction later. However, before that, it is necessary to review the process of our market deduction since the second half of 2022, which is convenient for summarizing and thinking, and it is also convenient for everyone to observe and understand.
Looking back at our main logic and deduction process since the second half of 2022, it should be said that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks will rise sharply at the beginning of 2023. This situation has not exceeded our expectations, and it should be said that they are all within our expectations.
1. On May 29, 2022, we released the June strategy report “Don’t wait for the robin to sing to know that spring has arrived” , expressing our recognition and views on medium and long-term investment opportunities in the market; May At the close of trading on the 30th, the Shanghai Composite Index was 3149.06 points.
2. On July 3, 2022, we released the strategy report for the second half of the year “N or One, Where Are the Opportunities” , which analyzed market trends and investment opportunities. Judging from the trend of the Shanghai Composite Index in the second half of 2022, the market Out of a downward “N” character, the thinking about investment opportunities in the direction of reversal of difficulties, hard technology, medicine and medical care still has a certain reference value, and has also received feedback from investors and the market.
3. As a buy-side investment advisor, we will not just be bullish blindly. When we identify risks, we will also speak up bravely. On July 4, 2022, we released “Suspension of fixed investment does not mean bearish, it is In order to go more stable and farther” , the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3424.84 points the next day, which was the highest point in the second half of the year;
We guide everyone to moderately avoid short-term adjustments by stopping our own fixed investment.
It is a pity that many investors may not understand it correctly, and hope that the automatic follow-up investment function will be launched as soon as possible in the future. The investment advisory combination strategy can help everyone automatically complete follow-up investment, pause, double and other decisions. (Wind, 2022.07.05)
4. On August 28, 2022, we released the September strategy report “Strategic bullishness starts, pessimism has become a thing of the past “ . When there is an obvious opportunity in the market, in addition to publishing an article to remind you, we also guide everyone to seize the investment opportunity through double fixed investment for individual families.
It is also a pity that many investors may still not be able to correctly understand and take corresponding measures. They still have to expect the automatic follow-up investment function to be launched as soon as possible, and the investment advisory combination strategy can help everyone automatically complete follow-up investment and other decisions.
5. In the fourth-quarter strategy report “Fund Investment Advisory 2022 Fourth Quarter Strategy Report” released on October 9, 2022, we expressed our judgment on the market’s staged entry into the final bottoming stage, and our investment strategy and direction Explained again.
6. On October 30 and November 27, 2022, we released the strategy reports “Crossing the River” and “Waiting for Results” for November and December respectively, fully expressing our research and judgment on medium and long-term investment opportunities and investment direction concentration. (The above data comes from Wind, 2023.01.17.)
Looking back in 2022, since the launch of Yinhua Tianji-Quiet Yingying and Yinhua Tianji-Niannianhong, in terms of strategy and position control, they have successively experienced reductions in equity and gradually increased equity;
Changes such as reducing the proportion of hard technology holdings-balanced dispersion-appropriately increasing Hong Kong stocks’ holdings are in line with the medium and long-term changes in the market.
Of course, we are not always correct, especially in the short-term performance, and we are not particularly amazing, and even some individual mid- and long-term investment logics may have certain flaws;
However, through daily research and analysis, through intensive homework, most of the logical deduction has been verified in terms of the overall strategy of Yinhua Tianji-Quietly Ying and Niannianhong and the grasp of medium and long-term investment opportunities. .
Regarding the judgment of the future market trend, from the perspective of the trend, there is a relatively high probability that it will continue to go well, and it may even exceed expectations. Of course, no one is 100% sure. This is a matter of probability.
The reason for such a judgment is derived from our comprehensive analysis of fundamentals, policies, funds, technology, emotions, etc. When analyzing and deducing future market trends, there is a core variable, we Much more optimistic than the average person.
That is about going all out to fight for the economy in 2023. It seems that many investors are not so confident here, but we are just the opposite. Based on the changes in economic policies over the years, we give our commonsense judgment that March is important. After the meeting, from the measures to the results, it may exceed most people’s expectations, and we will look back at that time.
Regarding the situation of the subdivision index, since 2023, Hong Kong stocks, consumption, medicine, hard technology, financial real estate, etc. have taken turns to enter the market, but there is still no absolute main line. Judging from the current performance, there is a high probability that there will be three in the future. Features:
First, it is generally upward, that is to say, it shows a general upward trend;
Second, each leads the way, and the main line of the market at each stage is different, depending on factors such as capital preference, valuation, performance, and emergencies;
Third, growth leads. In the end, from a mid- to long-term perspective, the market may still prefer growth, especially in the stock economy environment, where the scarcity of growth is even more prominent.
In short, there is no need to be anxious or too timid. We will carefully implement the investment strategies of Yinhua Tianji-Quietly Ying and Niannianhong based on the market situation, and adjust positions from time to time to deal with market changes. Remind or suspend fixed investment, and maintain a high degree of communication with everyone at any time.
Before automatic car following is technically realized, everyone must pay attention to reading articles, pay attention to our risk and opportunity reminders, and of course, adhere to the principle of leisure money investment, do not invest in urgent money, and do not move frequently move.
I am silent, insisting on researching and analyzing funds every day,
An investment observation and reflection every trading day,
A “Fund Review” video every trading day,
A weekly strategy report is released every Sunday,
Maintain efficient communication and communication at any time, a fund investor who insists on improving research capabilities.
If you think the content is valuable, if you feel that Quiet Ying and Niannianhong Fund Investment Advisory Portfolio are trustworthy, and if you think the communication with consultants is very important, please like, leave a comment, and forward it. thanks.
【Information Sharing】
1. Quick reading of the fourth quarter report of domestic public funds in 2022 (funds)
According to data from Wind data on January 16, as of January 16, 2023, about 40 domestic public offering fund products (calculated separately for A/C shares) have released regular reports for the fourth quarter of 2022, of which more than half of the funds are In the fourth quarter of 2022, phase positive returns will be achieved.
According to the comprehensive report of the Economic Information Daily on January 17, according to the announcements on the official websites of various domestic public offering fund companies, domestic public offering fund products that have announced the fourth quarter report of 2022 generally increased their equity asset positions in the fourth quarter of 2022. , an overall increase of about 3 percentage points, and finally broke through the 90% position line.
It is worth mentioning that the increase of 3% positions seems to be very small, but considering that there is a “bottom line” in the domestic public offering fund industry, the equity asset holdings of many fund products in the third quarter of 2022 have reached about 88%. The actual 3% position increase is already very rare.
According to data from Flush on January 16, as of January 16, 2023, the domestic public offering fund products that have announced the fourth quarter report of 2022 will have a more balanced position distribution in the fourth quarter of 2022. Except for some industry-themed funds, the rest The funds have further balanced the industry distribution and individual stock weight of their holdings.
Integrating the views of fund managers in the fourth quarter report of 2022, a reporter from the Economic Information Daily found that all fund managers who have published the fourth quarter report of 2022 are optimistic about the overall trend of the capital market in 2023.
2. Chip-themed ETFs have become one of the key points for capital increase (semiconductors and components)
According to a comprehensive report by China Securities Journal on January 17, according to data from Wind data on January 16,
According to a report by the Financial Associated Press on January 17, the second Dishui Lake Industry Investors Conference was held in Shanghai on January 17, 2023. During the meeting, some guests mentioned that the industry with the most financing events in the Lingang area of Shanghai in 2022 It is the integrated circuit industry, accounting for 31.5% of the total financing in the area in 2022.
According to Flush data, Shenwan’s secondary semiconductor and component industry rose by 2.47% today, ranking second, with a net capital inflow of 3.473 billion yuan, ranking first.
Minsheng Securities pointed out in a research report on January 13 that there are many downstream branches of the semiconductor industry, so the analysis of the industry cannot be generalized, but overall, the recovery of the entire industry in 2023 is a high probability event.
Considering the specific pace of inventory replenishment, Minsheng Securities believes that the valuation repair in the power semiconductor field may be faster than other semiconductor segments.
3. The number of inbound tourists in Macau in a single day hit a new high in 3 years (hotels and catering)
According to a comprehensive report by the Financial Associated Press on January 16, according to data from the Macau Government Tourist Office, on January 14, 2023, the number of inbound tourists in Macau reached 55,000, a three-year high, which is equivalent to the average daily number of inbound tourists in 2022. nearly 3 times.
Flush data shows that today, Shenwan’s secondary hotel and catering industry rose by 3.54%, ranking first, with a net capital inflow of 351 million yuan, ranking eighth.
Dongguan Securities’ research report on January 15 pointed out that the Spring Festival holiday in 2023 will be longer than the New Year’s Day holiday, and with the further relaxation of entry and exit policies, the popularity of overseas people’s inbound travel will increase rapidly. Pay attention to subdivided areas such as ticketing and scenic spots.
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Reminder: This article does not constitute investment advice, the market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious.
Managed fund investment advisory services are provided by Yinhua Fund Management Co., Ltd. Regular fixed investment is a simple and easy investment method to guide investors to make long-term investment and average investment cost. However, regular fixed-amount investment cannot avoid the inherent risks of fund investment, nor can it guarantee investors’ income, nor is it an equivalent financial management method to replace savings. The investment advisory portfolio recommendations may include fund products managed by Yinhua Fund and fund products managed by other fund managers. Before using the fund portfolio service, investors are requested to carefully read the relevant agreements, business rules and strategy instructions, fully understand the details of the portfolio and the fund allocation of the portfolio, and confirm that the portfolio is in line with their own risk tolerance, investment period and investment goals. Investors should follow the principle of “buyer is responsible” when investing in fund investment advisory portfolio strategies. Based on a comprehensive understanding of the risk-return characteristics, operating characteristics, and appropriateness matching opinions of fund investment advisory portfolio strategies, investors should choose appropriate fund investment advisors based on their own conditions. Combination strategies, cautiously make investment decisions, and independently bear investment risks. Yinhua Fund does not guarantee a certain profit and minimum return of the fund’s investment portfolio strategy, nor does it make a commitment to guarantee capital. The risk characteristics of fund portfolio strategies are different from those of individual fund products. The past performance of investment advisory services does not indicate its future performance, and the income created for other investors does not constitute a guarantee of performance. The fund investment consulting business is still in the pilot stage, and there is a risk that fund investment consulting institutions will not be able to continue to provide services due to the cancellation of the pilot qualification. Funds are risky, and investment needs to be cautious. #Fund Creator Incentive#
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