China’s population has shrunk for the first time in decades, earlier than expected, the government announced on Tuesday, due to a baby boom in the era of the coronavirus pandemic.
The news dramatically raises the possibility of a demographic shift: India overtakes China to become the world’s most populous country.
Last summer, the United Nations predicted that India would become the world’s most populous country sometime before mid-2023.
The United Nations estimates that by the end of 2022, China’s population will be 1.426 billion, and India’s population will be 1.422 billion. Therefore, China is still the most populous country in the world. The United Nations predicts that by July 1, the two countries will switch places, with India’s population growing to 1.429 billion and China’s population stabilizing at 1.426 billion.
However, China’s population figures for 2022 released on Tuesday showed that the country’s population is declining faster than the United Nations expected. United Nations models predict that China’s population will drop by 76,000 people. However, China’s population fell by 850,000 to 1.416 billion, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics.
The larger-than-expected population decline has further narrowed the gap between the populations of China and India, which may have surpassed China.
The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs did not immediately respond to Fortune’s request for comment.
When is India’s population expected to surpass that of China?
If India has already surpassed China in population, past predictions of when this transition will occur have been wildly wrong.
In 2007, Chinese experts predicted that China’s population would reach a peak of 1.5 billion in 2033. Before the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the United Nations believed that the exchange of places between China and India would not happen until 2027. When the United Nations released its latest forecast last year, it moved forward the date to 2023, as China reported a rapid decline in the number of newborns throughout the outbreak.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics also reported on Tuesday that the number of newborns fell to the lowest level on record and the death rate rose slightly.
What is the population of India?
India hasn’t had a census since 2011, when the country reported a population of 1.2 billion. The census was originally scheduled to take place in 2021, but the Indian government has blamed the COVID-19 pandemic for the multiple delays.
India’s official population forecast is not as large as the United Nations estimates. A 2020 report by the country’s National Population Commission projected India’s population to be 1.376 billion in March 2022 and 1.388 billion in March 2023. According to estimates, India’s population will not surpass China’s current population until 2026.
But India’s official estimates may underestimate the true population because poor and rural households in India often do not register births, skewing the data used to estimate population size.
After China and India officially switched places in the population rankings, the gap between the two countries will only widen further. The United Nations estimates that India’s population will balloon to 1.668 billion by 2050. By then, China’s population will shrink to 1.317 billion. (Fortune Chinese website)
Translator: Zhong Huiyan-Wang Fang
On Tuesday, Chinese authorities announced that the country’s population declined for the first time in decades, an event that came earlier than expected thanks to a COVID-era baby bust.
The announcement increases the chance that another long-expected demographic shift may have already happened: India overtaking China as the world’s most populous country.
Last summer, the United Nations projected that India would take the No. 1 position at some point before the middle of 2023.
The United Nations’ estimates for the end of 2022 still put China in first place, giving China 1.426 billion people and India 1.422 billion. The UN forecast that the two countries would have switched places by July 1, as India grows to 1.429 billion and China holds steady at 1.426 billion.
Yet the 2022 population China reported on Tuesday suggested a faster rate of decline than the UN expected. The UN’s model projected a drop of 76,000. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s population instead shrunk by 850,000 to 1.416 billion.
A larger-than-projected decline narrows the gap between China and India’s populations, raising the possibility that India has already overtaken China in size.
The United Nations’ Department of Economic and Social Affairs did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
When was India forecast to overtake China in population?
If India has passed China in population, past forecasts of when the switch would happen were wildly off.
In 2007, Chinese experts predicted that the country’s population would peak at 1.5 billion in 2033. Before the pandemic, the UN thought the swap wouldn’t happen until 2027. When it released updated projections last year, UN moved to 2 projected date 20 As China reported a rapid decline in new births throughout the pandemic.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics also reported on Tuesday a fall in new births to the lowest level on record and a slight uptick in death rates.
What is India’s population?
India has not conducted a census of its population since 2011, when it reported a population of 1.2 billion. A count was scheduled for 2021, but New Delhi has postponed the census several times, citing the COVID pandemic.
India’s official forecast doesn’t put its population as high as United Nations estimates. A 2020 report from the country’s National Commission on Population projected populations of 1.376 billion and 1.388 billion for March 2022 and March 2023 respectively. Based on t overtake China’s current population until 2026.
But India’s official estimates are likely to be an undercount, since poor and rural households in India often don’t register new births, skewing the data used to estimate population size.
The gap between India and China will only grow after the two countries officially switch places on the population rankings. The UN estimates that India’s population will swell to 1.668 billion by 2050. China’s population, by then, will shrink to 1.317 billion.
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