Zhengzhou hits the “first shot”: the loan interest rate of the first home has entered the “3” era

Since the second half of last year, the relevant national departments and local governments have increased policy support for the real estate industry, and have taken all-round measures for real estate companies, banks, securities, and bond markets, loosening and blood transfusion, activating the high-quality real estate industry to start construction, and “guaranteeing the delivery of buildings.” On the home buying side, from increasing the supporting benefits for home buyers to reducing the down payment and lowering the interest rate, the “double reduction” will give benefits to home buyers. The Central Economic Work Conference has set the status of the real estate industry as a national pillar industry, making the real estate industry a good start in 2023. The first-home loan in Zhengzhou has dropped to 3.8%, which has won many attentions.

The country’s real estate regulation and control in recent years, “housing is not for speculation”, the ultimate goal is to return the house to the essence of living. The real estate industry under regulation has experienced fluctuations, coupled with the economic difficulties under the influence of the three-year epidemic, the production and sales of the real estate industry have been hindered. The national policy supports the recovery of the real estate industry. The final foothold is to make the just-needed ones affordable and dare to make a decision to buy. Last year, Zhengzhou made an article on lowering interest rates at the beginning of the year, and this year it went ahead of the whole country. “Double reduction” is a huge benefit to rigid demand. With the end of the epidemic and the expected improvement in the economy, the first set of rigid demand has been waiting for a long time. It is almost time to sell. The increase in demand for housing purchases under good policies will drive a small upsurge in real estate sales in Zhengzhou, which will be beneficial to the entire real estate industry. Recovery is all good.

Demonstration is obvious. Zhengzhou’s first home mortgage interest rate has dropped to 3.8% from now on, becoming the first city in the country to relax policies in the New Year. It is worth mentioning that Zhengzhou’s approach does not have any difficulties and thresholds in market access, and other cities can follow suit. It can be expected that other cities will be on par with Zhengzhou within a month at most.

I can’t laugh or cry. On the funny side, the reduction in interest rates on first-home mortgages has brought real, tangible benefits to homebuyers. The bad news is that the price of new houses has declined year-on-year and month-on-month. For example, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that since 2022, the sales price index of new commercial housing in Zhengzhou has dropped by 3.4% year-on-year; the second is a cliff-like decline in sales. For example, according to Kerui Henan regional data, Zhengzhou property market sales have declined for four consecutive years since 2019, and will fall below 10 million square meters in 2022. Trading volume was almost halved. The sales area of ​​commercial housing across the country has dropped by 24.3% compared with 2021, which is the largest drop since statistics began in 1992. The sales volume has dropped by 26.7% compared with 2021, a decrease of nearly RMB 5 trillion, and dropped back to the level of 2017. Third, investment has dropped sharply. According to the 2022 data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on January 17, industrial real estate investment in 2022 will drop by 10% year-on-year, which is the first decline since records began in 1999. It must be pointed out that looking at the overall situation, the above-mentioned three major problems are actually “three big mountains”, and we must know the heavy burden and forge ahead.

The price-to-income ratio remains high. my country’s current “house price-to-income ratio” is 2-3 times the international average. This indicates. China’s current housing prices still have the possibility of continuing to decline, and the downward trend is also necessary.

In short, China’s real estate industry has entered a new stage of “high-quality” development. In the future, local governments, enterprises, and people who still hold “low-quality” old boat tickets may not be able to board “new passenger boats” or may even All previous efforts were wasted, or it was terrible.

Lowering interest rates is only an expedient, and lowering housing prices is fundamental. The ratio of housing prices to income is too high, the pressure on young people is doubled, the burden is heavy, and the willingness to have children is low. To lower housing prices, land prices should be lowered first, and land resources cannot be used to raise prices.