“The Wandering Earth 2” once mentioned: “Civilization without people is meaningless.” And when the NIO ES8 in the movie drove into reality, is NIO , which always holds the concept of “user-oriented” really true? We can usher in the vast sea…
Recently, the topic #威来春春高路转免电免费# has become a hot topic on Weibo, which has touched many NIO car owners and added a little warmth to the first “Road to Homecoming” after the epidemic is released. .
In mid-January 2023, Weilai Automobile officially announced: “From January 13, 2023 to February 5, 2023, 348 expressway swap stations across the country will provide unlimited free battery swap services to all Weilai vehicles (operating vehicles) Except), the swap station in the high-speed service area will provide services 24 hours a day.
Source: Weilai official website
At the same time, on NIO DAY in 2022, NIO announced that it will equip each of its third-generation power stations with dual Orin-X chips, sparking heated discussions in the industry. According to the information previously released by Nvidia, the computing power of a single Orin-X can reach the industry’s top 254TOPS (trillion operations per second), which means that the total computing power of NIO’s third-generation power station will be as high as 508TOPS. In addition, the current price of a single Orin-X chip is 400 US dollars, and the double Orin-X chip means a cost of about RMB 5,400.
Can Weilai, who has been questioned all the way, finally win this gamble? NIO changing battery, sailing to an isolated island or becoming a lighthouse?
01 Battery swap·those past
In fact, if we sort out the development path of the swap line, we can find that the initial starting point of the swap mode was 2007.
At that time, Better Place’s idea for the development model of electric vehicles was: to establish a complete set of electric vehicle charging, battery replacement station system and technology, so that electric vehicles can break through the battery mileage and slow charging bottlenecks by replacing batteries, so as to be faster. promote electric vehicles. However, due to the difficulty in achieving a balance between operating investment and income, it was unsustainable, and it finally declared bankruptcy in May 2013.
In the second month after the fall of Better Place, Tesla founder Musk released “the ‘battery swapping technology’ that can be completed in 93 seconds” in the United States. It was also on that day that Musk’s characteristic crimson complexion in Pretoria, South Africa, became even more flushed because of being too excited.
However, this seemingly precious brilliance soon faded.
At the beginning of 2015, Tesla’s first power station near the super charging station in California was put into trial operation. Of the 200 Model S owners invited to participate in the test, only 5 “arrived as scheduled”.
It is reported that the cost of a single battery replacement (60 to 80 US dollars) is too expensive, and the battery replacement process is relatively cumbersome (after the battery replacement, the car should be replaced back to the original battery on schedule). Therefore, the vast majority of Tesla owners prefer the Tesla overcharge mode with fast charging speed and zero cost.
In desperation, Musk had to “replace the battery” and cut it off himself.
02 Weilai will not fail, insist on battery replacement
So, neither of the two star companies has a successful battery replacement model, so how can NIO “come from behind”?
Is it the birth of policy?
On April 23, 2020, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the “Notice on Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles” (hereinafter referred to as the “Notice”).
One of these clauses stands out:
Models with a pre-subsidy price of more than 300,000 yuan (including 300,000 yuan) for new energy passenger vehicles will no longer enjoy preferential policies, and vehicles in the “battery swap mode” will not be affected by this regulation. That is to say, the “NIO Battery Swap Mode” has been officially stamped and approved.
Secondly, the battery-swapping mode focuses on the advantage of “fast speed”. It is claimed that the whole process is not enough from the mobile phone reservation, to the automatic parking at the power station, to the machine automatically removing the battery, replacing the battery, and then matching the battery with the strong power of the vehicle. 5 minutes.
Up to now, NIO has built a total of 1,307 battery swap stations in the Chinese market, including 346 expressway swap stations, and completed the layout of the high-speed battery swap network in 5 vertical, 3 horizontal, and 8 urban agglomerations.
In addition to the speed advantage, the separation of vehicle and electricity is realized in the battery swap mode. In June 2020, Weilai officially launched the BaaS (Battery as a Service) car purchase plan: when purchasing a new energy vehicle, users can only purchase the entire vehicle, while the battery adopts a leasing model, which greatly reduces the user’s car purchase cost and improves the user experience. The user’s willingness to buy a car. This is especially attractive to users under the background of high cost of power batteries. Taking the purchase of Weilai ES7 as an example, the user chooses to lease the battery and buy out the whole vehicle, and the cost difference between the two is 128,000 yuan.
At the same time, the battery replacement mode can also enable users to enjoy the latest battery technology at a lower cost. Judging from the development speed of power batteries in my country today, the experience of using a car is bound to be different.
With the advantage of speed, the tightening of car purchase costs, and the car company label of Weilai’s “user” concept, Weilai’s battery swap model does provide strong support for users to purchase cars to a certain extent.
03 “Battery replacement” has become a double-edged sword
Even so, there are still questions that need to be answered in Weilai’s battery swap model.
Source: NIO official website
As we all know, battery swap technology, as a supplement to electric vehicle charging, does solve some current pain points. But a fact that cannot be ignored is that the cost of battery replacement is much higher than that of charging. Therefore, when the battery cost of each vehicle remains unchanged, not only the construction cost of a large number of power stations will be increased for no reason, but additional battery costs will be generated, making it difficult to form a commercial closed loop. Previously, Weilai had announced that the cost of replacing the power station was about 1.5 million to 2 million. If estimated according to this figure, the 1,307 power stations currently owned by NIO Power will cost about 2.6 billion yuan.
Weilai once said that “if the brand does not fail, we must continue to insist on battery replacement.” Weilai’s battery replacement model has been shaped into an important component of brand image and value. Therefore, regardless of whether it is profitable or not, the replacement of power stations has to continue to evolve along with the increase in Weilai’s sales. What is certain is that in NIO’s constantly iterative battery swap stations, the user experience is bound to be significantly improved. In addition to the advantages of faster battery swaps compared to faster charging, complex battery swap scenarios after the user base increases, It will also be fully optimized after the overall intelligence of the battery swap system is improved. But for Weilai, under the premise of lack of self-developed batteries, the replacement station with larger battery capacity will undoubtedly further increase the cost of station construction.
It is worth noting that Qin Lihong, co-founder and president of Weilai Automobile, said in an interview: “In recent years, many people have regarded (Nio’s) battery replacement as a business, and (asked) when this business will be upgraded (profitable). It’s like you go to a restaurant and ask him: When will you make a profit (the business of delivering paper towels). It is a service.” However, Weilai’s problem is: battery swap assets (battery packs + swap station assets) are on the table In addition, NIO Power must have the ability to continue to serve, otherwise Weilai Automobile will not be able to continue to attract more people to pay.
In addition to the cost, when the old-fashioned battery replacement supercharger is stronger and weaker in the competition, the supercharger “only takes 5 minutes”, which also makes the public start to think whether the battery replacement mode has lost its meaning?
In September 2022, the Xpeng G9 will be launched. The biggest selling point of this car is that it is the industry’s first mass-produced 800V high-voltage SiC platform. The 4C version of the model can be charged for 5 minutes with the Xpeng S4 ultra-fast charging pile, and the battery life is 200km.
The Kirin battery under Ningde Times not only supports 4C charging rate, but also can achieve 10-minute fast charging (10%-80%); Tesla 4680 battery can realize 15-minute fast charging (10% -80 %); Energy technology SPS battery, the charge and discharge rate can reach up to 5C, charging more than 400km in 10 minutes.
In this context, with the continuous iteration of important factors such as batteries and charging technology, it is “undoubted” that the charging speed will become faster and faster. There is nothing wrong with such remarks as “super fast charging is the ultimate solution for electric vehicles”.
In addition, under the catalysis of the policy, more and more industry giants have also joined the exchange line.
Source: Weilai official website
On January 18, 2022, the power battery giant Ningde Times released the battery replacement brand EVOGO; in April, GAC Aian ’s first super charging battery replacement center landed in Guangzhou; in June, SAIC Motor launched a standardized battery pack Rubik’s Cube battery; “Barrel of Oil” joined hands with SAIC Motor and Ningde Times to jointly establish Jieneng Smart Electric Technology, and decided to enter the battery replacement track… Under such fierce competition, it is hard to say that Weilai can successfully maintain its original share.
According to the plan, in 2023, NIO will build more than 1,700 battery swapping stations and more than 20,000 charging piles in the Chinese market, so as to realize the effect of adding electricity more conveniently than refueling.
Looking back at the data, NIO will deliver a total of 122,486 new cars in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 34%. At this moment, it is important to ensure a sufficient number of power stations, but the more critical point is, with the continuous expansion of product inventory, when can we prove that the energy replenishment model we adopt has the ability to “support ourselves”.
04 write at the end
Undoubtedly, for consumers, they don’t care about the “intrigues” among car companies, but care more about what is the most convenient and quick way when trams need to replenish energy. Therefore, expanding to the entire battery replacement track, the various difficulties encountered by Weilai on the circuit replacement line are also common obstacles faced by other battery replacement companies in the future development.
Facing the national market, how will the density and layout of power stations be allocated? Will the brand new power station affect the frequency of use of the built power station? There are still “difficulties” ahead for electric car companies.
This article comes from the WeChat public account “SootoooNEV” (ID: SootooNEV) , author: Hao Danchun, editor: Qin Shaohua, 36 Krypton is authorized to publish.
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Event Tracking
- 2023-02-01 When NIO’s battery swap becomes a “double-edged sword”
- 2023-01-13 NIO : Free and unlimited battery swaps on expressways during the Spring Festival
- 2022-12-24 Weilai releases the new ES8 with a starting price of 528,000, and the starting price of EC7 is 488,000
- 2022-07-06 Qin Lihong responded to the short-selling controversy: Weilai is not profitable now, not because of battery replacement
- 2022-07-06NIO released the 2025 high-speed power swap network construction plan
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