Original link: https://www.latepost.com/news/dj_detail?id=1607
Consumption data in the first quarter exceeded that before the epidemic
According to preliminary calculations by the National Bureau of Statistics, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of this year was about 28.5 trillion yuan (28.4997 billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of 4.5% at constant prices, exceeding the market’s general expectation (4%).
Key economic data released during the same period include consumption, exports and investment. In the first quarter, the national total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.8% year-on-year to 11.5 trillion yuan, total exports increased by 8.4% year-on-year to 5.65 trillion yuan, and national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 5.1% year-on-year to 10.7 trillion yuan.
Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in the first quarter, with the rapid and stable transition of epidemic prevention and control, various policies and measures to stabilize growth, employment and prices have been put forward, and the accumulation of positive factors has increased. The national economy has stabilized and recovered, and the start Good, “but we must also see that the international environment is still complex and changeable, the constraints of insufficient domestic demand are obvious, and the foundation for economic recovery is not yet solid.”
Just looking at the data, the effect of consumption on the economy seems to have returned to the level before the epidemic. In the first quarter, final consumption expenditure contributed 66.6% to the year-on-year growth rate of GDP (including expenditure in public services).
However, as reminded by the macro research team of CITIC Securities, after removing the influence of the base based on the four-year average growth rate, the trend of commodity sales is very high and low. Typical high-end consumer industries such as tobacco, wine, gold, silver and jewelry grew rapidly, while home appliances, audio-visuals, clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles performed relatively weakly.
An important indicator affecting the stamina of consumption is the employment rate. According to the Bureau of Statistics, the national surveyed urban unemployment rate in the first quarter was 5.5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the fourth quarter of the previous year. Among them, the surveyed unemployment rate of the labor force aged 16-24 was 19.6% (18.1% in February 2023, 18.1% in February 2023, 16.7% in December 2022). This year, the number of undergraduate graduates and the number of candidates for postgraduate examinations across the country are all new highs. (Gong Fangyi)
Shanghai Auto Show 2023: Domestic cars become the absolute protagonists
The Beijing and Shanghai Auto Shows are the two major auto shows in China. The two places are held alternately every year, with Shanghai being held in odd-numbered years and Beijing in even-numbered years. Due to force majeure, only one 2021 Shanghai Auto Show will be held from 2020 to 2022.
This year’s auto show is the turn of Shanghai again. The venue is still set to be at the National Exhibition and Convention Center in Shanghai, not far from Hongqiao Airport and Railway Station. Some things need to be re-adapted. For example, exhibitors and booth layout (mainly electric vehicles) are already familiar, but from Weilai, Ideal, Xiaopeng, to BYD/Looking Up, Asking the World, the exhibition area of independent brands is larger, and there are more people onlookers . Meanwhile, some of the brands that sat next to them in the last two editions disappeared.
Gasoline vehicles are hardly seen anymore, and the audience at the media day does not seem to be very interested. This time Hall 8 has exhibitions of ultra-luxury brands such as Porsche, Lamborghini, Maserati, Bentley, and Rolls-Royce. Several new car brands gathered in Hall 6. We saw several salesmen standing next to each exhibited car in the ideal exhibition area. According to one of them, the car (L9, L8) at this auto show can enjoy nearly 10,000 yuan discounts, but on a “first come, first served basis”.
Now, after subsidizing tens of billions of yuan a year, Chinese electric car companies have produced millions of cars that can compare with joint ventures and imported cars in China. Today, the booths of these domestic electric vehicle brands gathered the largest audience.
The two days before the auto show are usually media days, and such a flow of people is more telling. The place where the content workers gather is likely to be the content that readers and short video viewers most want to watch. In the past few auto shows, the brand’s new imagination of different technical routes for vehicle electrification and intelligence has hardly been seen. (Gong Fangyi)
Uncertainty in the macro economy, new PE funds raised in the Asia-Pacific region decreased by more than 40%
Stimulated by quantitative easing, the value of PE transactions in the Asia-Pacific region once reached a record US$354 billion in 2021. However, according to the latest report from Bain Consulting, last year, this scale has dropped to 198 billion US dollars, a drop of more than 40%.
Last year, the value of PE transactions in major Asia-Pacific economies fell to varying degrees. Among them, Greater China fell by 53%, and Southeast Asia also fell by 52%, followed by Australia-New Zealand (-48%), South Korea (-39%), Japan (-28%) and India (-25%). %).
Chinese investors said they were most concerned about the epidemic and geopolitical tensions. Although the economies of major countries such as India and Southeast Asia have rebounded earlier, the general inflation rate is high – Southeast Asia as a whole is above 4%, and India exceeds 6%. Japan and South Korea are also facing currency depreciation. The yen and Korean won depreciated by 20% and 13% respectively last year.
With a record $676 billion in cash, PEs are more cautious than before. In the past year, geo-political conflicts fueled high inflation; the Federal Reserve began to tighten liquidity, prompting capital to return to the United States, leading to currency depreciation in emerging countries and financial market volatility; tightening tensions between the East and the West suppressed cross-border transactions and exacerbated uncertainty.
The situation in Greater China may be the most complicated. Last year, newly raised funds focused on the Greater China region also decreased by 77% year-on-year to US$25 billion. In addition to the economic outlook and geopolitical situation, it is also partly affected by investment restrictions in industries (such as telecommunications, airports, critical infrastructure and mining, etc.).
As the share of newly raised funds in Greater China decreased from 58% to 24%, the share of pan-Asia-Pacific funds (not focusing on specific countries and regions) expanded from 20% to 52% last year, a new high in nearly 22 years. The shares of Australia-New Zealand, Japan and India rose to 7%, 6% and 5% respectively.
Bain pointed out that as economic uncertainty increases and high inflation depresses long-term returns, funds will flow to industries with lower risks. The advanced manufacturing and energy sectors in the Asia-Pacific region were the only industries with an increase in transaction volume last year. As for future investment opportunities, Bain is optimistic about India’s infrastructure construction, Southeast Asia’s manufacturing supply chain, acquisition opportunities brought about by the depreciation of Japanese and Korean currencies, and Australia’s healthcare, while China depends on the recovery of consumption and exports. (Lin Guangying)
Apple Raises Savings at 10 Times the Industry Average
On Monday, Apple, the world’s most valuable company, announced that a high-yield savings account in cooperation with Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs was officially launched in the United States, with a deposit limit of $250,000, no handling fees, minimum deposits, and minimum balance requirements. Apple Card users can manage and spend deposits directly in the Wallet app on their Apple devices.
In order to attract savings, Apple offered an annual interest rate of 4.15%, surpassing the 3.75% of competitor American Express in one fell swoop, and 10 times the average interest rate of American savings accounts.
Goldman Sachs has long worked with Apple in the financial sector. In 2019, Apple and Goldman Sachs cooperated to issue the virtual credit card Apple Card, and on this basis, the “buy now, pay later” installment payment function was launched in March this year. Users can repay in four zero-interest installments within six weeks after payment.
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon has been working for years to boost retail banking, helping to hedge risks in trade and investment banking. The current retail banking business includes credit card business in cooperation with Apple, General Motors and other companies, as well as Marcus online virtual banking business focusing on personal savings.
But the retail banking business has never been profitable, and has lost nearly $3 billion since 2020, mainly from the credit card business. Apple Card credit card profits missed expectations in 2019. In the first nine months of 2022, the credit card business lost $1.2 billion. The CEO of Goldman Sachs admitted at the beginning of the year that its ambitions in consumer finance exceeded its ability to execute, and said it would reconsider its “strategic options” for its retail banking business. But it praised the Marcus deposit business, which has managed to collect $110 billion in deposits.
“Apple Card credit card + savings account” may be the first attempt of the new “strategic option”. It is reported that Apple and Goldman Sachs recently renegotiated the business arrangement and extended it beyond ten years. The deposit interest rate of Apple Card is also higher than Goldman Sachs’ own Marcus’s 3.9% interest rate. (Intern Meng Xiaohan)
OTHER NEWS
In the first quarter, the scale of domestic civil aviation passenger traffic recovered to nearly 90% before the epidemic.
According to data from the Civil Aviation Administration of China, China’s civil aviation industry transported 129 million passengers in the first quarter of this year, a year-on-year increase of 68.9%, and the passenger volume is equivalent to 80% of the same period in 2019. Among them, domestic routes completed 126 million passengers, equivalent to 88.6% in the same period in 2019; international routes completed 2.242 million passengers, equivalent to 12.4% in the same period in 2019.
Goertek’s net profit in the first quarter fell by nearly 90%.
The specific impact of Goertek being cut by Apple came. In the first quarter of this year, Goertek’s net profit fell by 88.22% to 106 million yuan (including 92.95 million yuan in government subsidies) under the premise that its revenue increased by nearly 20% year-on-year. Ivan Lam, an analyst at research firm Counterpoint Research, said that although Goertek is still in the Apple headset supply chain, the latter will adopt a multi-supply (multiple suppliers) strategy in the future. Previously, Apple cut orders for GoerTek due to yield issues.
Seventy percent of mobile phones in Russia are Chinese brands.
M.Video, Russia’s largest consumer electronics retailer, said that in the first quarter of this year, the sales of Chinese mobile phone brands in Russia increased by 42% year-on-year, and their market share increased from 50% in the same period last year to more than 70%. After the Russia-Uzbekistan conflict, Apple and Samsung reduced their business in Russia, and the sales of Chinese mobile phone brands surged. Currently, the top two are Xiaomi and Realme, while Apple and Samsung have dropped to third and fourth respectively.
“Egg Party” helped NetEase return to the No. 2 revenue among domestic mobile game publishers.
The data analysis agency Sensor Tower released the revenue list of Chinese mobile game publishers in March today. In that month, a total of 41 Chinese manufacturers entered the top 100 global mobile game publisher revenues, attracting a total of 1.93 billion US dollars in revenue. Among them, NetEase’s mobile game revenue increased by 11% month-on-month, returning to the second place on the list, mainly driven by “Egg Party”, which has topped China’s iOS mobile game download list for four consecutive months, and its revenue in March also hit a new high .
Anta issued new shares, raising a net fund of 11.731 billion Hong Kong dollars.
Anta Sports announced that it intends to place 119 million shares top-up, raising net funds of approximately HK$11.731 billion. Proceeds will be used to repay Anta’s outstanding financial liabilities and general working capital. Anta’s stock price fell by more than 8% at the opening today, a drop close to the discount of the allotment price of new shares compared with yesterday’s closing price. Last week, Anta released its first-quarter operating report. The retail sales of the main brand Anta increased by 4%-6% year-on-year, and the retail sales of FILA increased by 7%-8% year-on-year.
Hangzhou has strengthened the supervision of food delivery and clarified the rights and interests of food delivery staff.
The Hangzhou Municipal Market Supervision Bureau and other departments issued the “Hangzhou City Online Catering Takeaway Supervision and Management Measures” on April 18, clarifying the rights and interests of takeaway workers. This policy will be implemented in May. It requires food delivery platforms, food delivery agency companies and other entities to sign labor contracts with the delivery workers when the labor relationship is established. The delivery workers should participate in social insurance. A written agreement should be concluded to clarify the rights and obligations of both parties.
The Ministry of Transport will promote online car-hailing and freight platforms to reduce commissions.
The Ministry of Transport announced on April 17 that it will push major online car-hailing and freight platform companies to reduce excessive commission ratios or membership fee caps. According to the work plan, before the end of May 2023, all major online car-hailing platforms need to basically complete the work of lowering the upper limit of excessive rake ratios, and online car-hailing and freight platforms need to take the initiative to announce their work arrangements and commitments to the public. Last year, the Ministry of Transport promoted online car-hailing platforms to disclose the upper limit of the commission rate through apps, corporate websites, etc., and provided drivers with information such as the total amount paid by passengers, the driver’s labor remuneration, the commission rate, and calculation formulas.
Ideal’s first pure electric model will be equipped with CATL’s 4C Kirin battery.
Li Auto announced on April 18 that its first pure electric model will be powered by CATL 4C Kirin batteries. The 4C Kirin battery has more power and longer battery life, and can be charged in 15 minutes at a certain current intensity. This model will support 800V overcharging, which can last 400km after charging for 10 minutes. Ideal plans to include 1 flagship model, 5 range-extending models and 5 pure electric models by 2025.
Since the beginning of this year, more than 50 senior executives of Chinese banks have changed jobs or have other personnel adjustments.
On April 17, four bank executives issued resignation announcements. Among them, the executives of Bank of China and Sunong retired due to age reasons, and the executives of Bank of Zhengzhou retired due to personal reasons. According to media statistics, since the beginning of this year, a total of 53 senior executives in the banking system have changed, including the four major banks, Bank of Communications, and China Merchants Bank. The positions include chairman, vice president, and chief supervisor. At present, the chairmen of the four major banks are transferred from other banks and have no work experience in the bank before taking office.
Musk said that he is developing TruthGPT to replace ChatGPT.
In an interview with the media, Musk said that he is developing the AI chat robot TruthGPT, which he described as a kind of artificial intelligence that tries to understand the nature of the universe and seeks the truth to the greatest extent. Musk said that he believes that artificial intelligence that cares about how to understand the universe is unlikely to wipe out human beings, so TruthGPT is the best way to ensure the safety of artificial intelligence. It was reported earlier that Musk has established a new artificial intelligence company called X.AI and purchased about 10,000 GPU chips.
DeepMind CEO thinks AI may have self-awareness in the future.
Demis Hassabis, CEO of Alphabet’s artificial intelligence laboratory DeepMind, said in an interview that if consciousness is defined by self-perception, AI may one day acquire such capabilities. He believes that artificial intelligence is the most important invention in human history, and people will adapt to the changes brought about by AI as quickly as they adapt to smartphones. DeepMind was founded by Hassabis et al. in 2010 and was later acquired by Google in 2014. It is currently one of the largest AI research institutions in the world.
Apple MacBook assembler Quanta will invest $50 million to build a factory in Vietnam.
According to media reports, Apple plans to begin mass production of MacBook outside of China in the first half of this year. An executive at Quanta, Apple’s main computer contract maker, said in an interview that Vietnam has an abundant and affordable labor force and benefits from the industrial cluster effect. But he also said that China is still Quanta’s largest notebook computer manufacturing base. In order to reduce tariffs, some low-cost consumer electronics and server manufacturing have been allocated to factories in Thailand. Quanta will account for nearly 30% of the world’s notebook computer shipments in 2021. Previously, Apple’s foundries in Thailand and India mainly faced the problem of low yield rate.
Ford’s Chinese factory will export complete vehicles to the United States for the first time, mainly electric vehicles.
Ford’s Lincoln brand will import the Nautilus hybrid mid-size SUV from China next year. This will be the first time that Ford has imported a complete vehicle from China to the United States. This model is currently mainly produced at Changan Ford’s Hangzhou plant. Ford estimates that 35 percent of the plant’s output next year will be exported to North America. Ford is investing $1.3 billion to convert its U.S. factories into electric car factories.
The U.S. updated the tax break rules for electric vehicles, and Volkswagen, BMW, etc. lost subsidies.
On April 17 local time, the U.S. Department of the Treasury updated the list of electric vehicles that can receive tax relief. Volkswagen, BMW, Volvo, Nissan and other car companies will lose subsidies of up to $7,000 per vehicle, except for GM, Chevrolet, and Tesla. Except for American manufacturers, none of the electric models of overseas brands are eligible for subsidies. The new regulations require that 50% of the value of battery components be produced or assembled in North America, and a tax subsidy of $3,750 can be obtained; or 40% of the value of key minerals should be purchased from the United States or its free trade partners, and another $3,750 subsidy can be obtained.
Goldman Sachs profit fell in the first quarter, investment banking business downturn.
Goldman Sachs announced its first-quarter performance report, with revenue of US$12.22 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5%, lower than market expectations, and a profit of US$3.23 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18%. JP Morgan Chase and Citigroup, which have previously announced their first-quarter results, have both exceeded market expectations in terms of revenue and profit. Nearly 70 percent of Goldman’s revenue comes from Wall Street’s investment banking and trading operations. In the first quarter of 2023, global M&A activity fell to its lowest level in more than a decade, and Goldman Sachs’ investment banking transaction fee income fell by 26%.
Ernst & Young’s US branch will lay off 3,000 employees due to overcapacity, mainly from the consulting business.
Ernst & Young’s US branch said on Monday that it would lay off 5% of its workforce (3,000 people) due to “overcapacity”, mainly affecting the consulting business. Last week, Ernst & Young’s consulting and audit spin-off plan was shelved due to the division’s objections, but the company said it had nothing to do with the layoffs. In recent months, Accenture, McKinsey, KPMG and other consulting firms have announced layoffs.
The first Apple retail store in India opened today.
India’s first Apple retail store opened in Mumbai today, Apple CEO Tim Cook attended the opening ceremony. On April 20, Apple’s second retail store in India will open in Delhi. In 2022, Apple’s sales in India will increase by about 50% year-on-year to nearly $6 billion. Cook said in February that Apple attaches great importance to the Indian market. At present, the penetration rate of smartphones in India is less than 50%, and only 4% of Indian smartphone users use iPhones.
Broadway has officially suspended productions of the world classic musical “The Phantom of the Opera.”
On April 17, the world classic musical “Phantom of the Opera” ended its last performance on Broadway. The show is Broadway’s longest-running musical (35 years in theaters), with 14,000 performances to an audience of 20 million. Last year’s epidemic caused a sharp decline in ticket sales, and at the same time costs increased significantly (including very delicate sets, a team of 125 people, and technical special effects), resulting in weekly losses. After the crew announced at the end of last year that it would suspend performances in February this year, the box office increased significantly from $1 million to $3 million a week, so the crew extended the suspension time to the last date stipulated by the theater due to repairs.
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