On Wednesday, U.S. stocks fell collectively. The Dow plummeted 1,164.52 points and closed down 3.57%, the S&P 500 closed down 4.04%, and the Nasdaq closed down 4.73%, also the biggest drop since September 2020.
Target, the second largest retail consumer group in the United States, plunged 25% after its performance, and star technology stocks also fell sharply collectively. Meta fell more than 5%, Amazon and Netflix fell more than 7%, and Apple fell 5.6% to the lowest since the beginning of October last year. Microsoft fell 4.6%, Google fell nearly 4%, and Tesla fell nearly 7%, approaching the $700 integer, the lowest since August last year.
Amid the gloom and gloom, stubborn Wall Street bull Marko Kolanovic, a strategist at JPMorgan, said in a research note that he remains firmly bullish on the stock market, as “the stock market is now pricing in a 70% chance of a ‘near-term’ recession and the market may have priced in too much. A lot of negative factors. The U.S. stock market will get better over time and ‘can climb out of the bottom’ during the year.”
The economy will not be in recession this year, with summer consumer activity picking up on the back of a combination of reopenings and fiscal measures.
U.S. inflation may have peaked (or is about to do so), paving the way for a pullback in prices that will eventually allow the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of monetary tightening.
On Tuesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivered his most hawkish speech ever, saying the central bank will continue to raise interest rates firmly until there is “clear and convincing” evidence that inflation is receding.
Recently released data showed that the price of consumer goods in a range of consumer staples and discretionary spending categories in the United States continued to climb at the fastest rate on record, and inflation appeared to remain high in April, with no effective relief seen.
Most of the foreseeable black swan events this year have already occurred, including a very drastic policy shift by the Federal Reserve, aggressively moving toward tightening. And then the stalemate over the Russian-Ukrainian war, which I think had a more profound effect on consumer goods inflation, especially in Europe. Plus, there’s a chain reaction where most of the bad stuff has happened.
Marko Kolanovic is one of Wall Street’s most closely watched strategists, topping the world’s top corporate research and equity research teams in the 2021 Institutional Investor Survey. It’s worth noting that Kolanovic has underperformed this year in a big market overall. , has repeatedly insisted on singing “contrarian” with the big Wall Street, and firmly optimistic about the follow-up trend of U.S. stocks. In the past few weeks, he advocated increasing risk exposure at the peak of hawkishness, and said that the market overestimated the possibility of economic recession. In mid-March, he had already published that “the market correction is almost complete,” and earlier in February, he had shouted that “bond traders are overpricing the hawkish Fed.”
While there is no shortage of strategists in the market, such as BlackRock’s Kate Moore, who support Kolanovic’s view that fears of an impending recession are overblown, according to a recent Bank of America survey of fund managers, as worries about stagflation intensify, Most institutional investors are hoarding cash.
In addition to his bullish outlook for the macro market, Kolanovic also said that in terms of specific sectors, he sees huge opportunities in innovation, biotech and international growth stocks, but recommends staying away from defensive companies such as dividend payers and major stocks — He thinks these companies are expensive.
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