In the past, the link to the discussion web page always understood everything, and I didn’t understand it or I didn’t understand it. Seeing that most people can’t do without static thinking and observation can reproduce the changes of sows. I hope to clarify the problem through this article.
1. Dynamic detection of sow changes is actually a static view of the reproductive cycle
The price fluctuates around the value, and it is meaningless to change the number of breeding sows. In the long run, the price of pigs is around 10% above the cost, and it will fluctuate around 18-20 in the future.
According to my observation, everyone monitors the number of sows basically for timing, but industry data is not accurate at all. Basically, fixed monitoring points report monthly, so these floating production capacities cannot be counted. Another example is that some local governments began to subsidize last month, and farmers inflated sows to defraud subsidies. As a result, the statistical data deviates from the actual situation. Then the timing doesn’t make sense.
2. Understand the pig cycle from the perspective of the reproductive cycle
Those who monitor capable breeding sows simply do not understand why the cycle is unstoppable every 4 years, and they always think that the cycle is different.
The four-year pig cycle is determined by the production cycle of pigs. When the price of pigs rises, the market needs one year to replenish sows that can reproduce. Sows are not machines. Sows generally have a service period of 2-3 years. Eliminated, the price of pigs rose, and a new cycle began. If the production cycle remains the same, the pig cycle remains the same!
Assuming that all farmers in the market replenish 3% of the sows per month, the cycle will weaken. Assuming that all farmers in the market replenish sows at the same time in the first year, and then eliminate them at the same time after two years, then the cycle is a shock.
In addition, the production efficiency of sows during the service period is from low to low, and the resonance of efficiency has a great impact on the industry. Just looking at the number of sows ignores this important factor.
So when you know that in 2019 and 20 years, the market has replenished a large number of capable breeders, you should understand that these sows are destined to be eliminated in two years. It doesn’t matter whether the existing sows are 40 million, 50 million or 60 million. After the centralized elimination, the next cycle will come as promised.
Conclusion: This cycle of de-sizing has become a fixed trend. If the sow’s scattered replenishment cycle in the next cycle is weakened, the centralized replenishment cycle will be strengthened.
3. Understand the pig cycle from the perspective of capital
The driver of in-cycle sow recruitment is funding.
At the beginning of the cycle, the price of pigs rose, and the number of reproductives increased. At the end of the first year of the cycle, the reproductive capacity expanded to the maximum. In the second year of the cycle, the efficiency of sows was the highest. At the end of the second year, the price of fat pigs reached the lowest point. Flow slumps.
In the third year, farmers are faced with the situation that most of the sows in the pen are at the end of their service, and the funds in their hands are also very short. Farmers are faced with the problem of choosing one of two options. One is to leave the overdue sows to continue production, and the other is to kill the sows and be forced to retire. As time goes on, more and more people are forced to retire. After a few months, the number of fat pigs will decrease, and the price of pigs will rise. Entering the next cycle, the cash flow of the industry improves, and farmers focus on replenishing sows.
In terms of capital capacity, the capital capacity of the upward cycle increases and the downward capital capacity decreases. In addition, human nature drives the influx of capital from the upward industry in the next cycle, and the clearing of capital from the industry during the downward cycle, aggravating the shock of the cycle. Therefore, if there is no adjustment mechanism against the capital cycle, then the cycle will weaken and be long!
Conclusion: 1. Some people say that scale or capitalization will prolong this cycle, which is completely wrong. The past 20 years have been a process of continuous scale, but the pig cycle has not been prolonged except for the intensification of shocks. The pig cycle once every four years is determined by the production cycle of pigs. In the past few pig cycles, the shocks have only intensified. This is fundamental logic.
2. If a large amount of capital can be injected at the bottom of the cycle and withdrawn at the top, the capital-sow cycle can be reversed to a certain extent, prolonging the cycle or smoothing the cycle fluctuations. The rising cycle has collided with the largest loss in history (both the average loss and the number of heads are the largest); on the contrary, there is no capital inflow at the bottom.
3. Taking Wen’s shares as an example, the current cash inflow is the lowest since its listing, the debt ratio is the highest since its listing, and there have been no new loans for 2 consecutive quarters. The cost of raising pigs remains high at 20 yuan. The company is more vulnerable than in 2018 and 2019. . The industry is generally like this, so the next cycle will still come as promised, and the price of pigs is not low.
4. Our common sense is that large-scale pig enterprises will replace retail investors in the future, but the actual result is the opposite. Large-scale pig companies have more financing channels. Most of the listed pig companies not only failed to use financing to get through the bottom of the cycle, but allin the cycle highs, boosting the rise and falling, and fell into the quagmire of the capital cycle.
4. Understand the pig cycle with the inventory cycle
The pig price is estimated by the number of reproductives, ignoring the difference between the actual number of sows and the statistical number, ignoring the difference in the performance of sows, ignoring the deviation of the number of people entering the stock and the number of litter, and ignoring the difference in the weight of the slaughter (average when the price of pigs is high). The weight is 140, and the average weight is 110 when low).
If all the breeding sites in the industry are imagined as a big bucket, the current output determines the price of pigs, the piglets invested now determine the price of pigs 6 months later, and the weight of the stock determines the price of pigs in the next six months, then this The stock weight is the arithmetic problem of the water in and out of the bucket.
How many pigs a farmer puts into the pigpen depends on 1. the number of piglets (the number of sows), 2. the amount of capital, 3. the number of pig pens, 4. the manpower, and 5. the expectation of future pig prices . This is the same as the principle of wooden barrels. It is determined by the shortest board. In our country, manpower and pigsty are absolutely sufficient. Then the storage capacity is a wooden barrel, which is composed of three boards, including litter size, capital, and expected water. . Stock weight is the water in the bucket.
When the price of pigs rises, the capital of the industry increases, the ability to breed increases, and they are optimistic about the price of pigs in the future. The capacity of this bucket will increase. When farmers are optimistic about the price of pigs in the future, they will push the fence, sows will be kept for secondary fattening, and the water inlet will be increased. , the water outlet is intercepted, the bucket becomes larger, and the water increases . The closure of the water outlet leads to a further increase in pig prices, and the capital and sows are expected to further improve, and the cycle is positive until the capital inflow is not enough to support the consumption of the inventory.
When the price of pigs fell and the funds in the industry were sluggish, looking at the future, although there was still enough energy to breed, the capacity of the wooden barrels dropped sharply, and the piglets had nowhere to be placed. The bucket gets smaller and the water decreases. Accelerating the output of water leads to a drop in pig prices, further deterioration of capital expectations, and a negative cycle until there are no more pigs to be produced, the price of pigs rises, and the cycle begins again.
For example, in the first quarter of 2021, the number of litter in the entire industry was high, which absorbed more than a year of pig price funds. The outbreak of African swine fever brought too high expectations. The barrel overflows, and the big fat pigs are concentrated in the slaughter. It has created the bottom of the cycle with the largest loss in history (both the average and the number of heads are the largest).
When the price of pigs in the third quarter of 2021 was 10 yuan, many people calculated that June 2022 would be the low point of the cycle based on the fact that Nengfan had the most in August 2021. In fact, the price of pigs is already 15.5 today, because the wooden barrels were getting smaller and smaller at that time, and the stock weight was not enough to cause lower pig prices.
Conclusion: The cycle is driven from the outside to the inside by pig price → sow → capital → human nature (expected). The research on the previous cycles found that the resonance of human nature made the cycle shock aggravated again and again, and the African swine fever caused the concentration of production capacity. The synchronization of production is becoming more and more consistent, and the cycle oscillation is the largest. As I said in the previous article, the more you want to seize the cycle, the more you lose. The logical process is linked on the article webpage .
V. How Muyuan Co., Ltd. responds to the pig cycle
Muyuan shares listed 1 million heads in 14 years, 55 million heads in 22 years, and increased liabilities by 90 billion.
Wen’s shares listed 15 million heads in 15 years and 16 million heads in 22 years, with an increase of 50 billion in liabilities.
It’s clear that one company rides the cycle, growing rapidly, and the other company is stuck in the quagmire of the cycle.
With my superficial knowledge, I try to understand how Qin Yinglin copes with the pig cycle
1. Low-cost farming system
Get rid of cyclical capital fluctuations as much as possible. Muyuan’s fattening cost is 15.7, and Wen’s 20 should have nothing to say. Every loss in Muyuan is a signal of a reversal in the industry.
2. Counter capital cycle capital operation
From the end of the second quarter of 2021 when the pig price fell below the industry cost to the first quarter of 2022, Muyuan’s debt increased by 35 billion, Wen’s debt increased by 3.8 billion, and the debt ratios of the two companies were similar at the end of the first quarter of 2022. One borrows money at the high point of the cycle and loses it back at the low point of the cycle. I don’t know what to do at the high point of the next cycle; one makes money and expands at the high point of the cycle, keeps the financing quota at the low point to continue to expand, and doubles the profit in the next cycle. When the capital capacity of the entire market decreases, it is of great significance to maintain or increase your own capital capacity. Since it fell below the industry cost in the second quarter of 2021, Muyuan’s total assets have increased by 30 billion yuan, and Wen’s total assets have decreased by 10 billion yuan. In addition to the strong capital operation ability of Boss Qin, it is also partly due to the low-cost breeding system.
3. Low-cost binary backcross system
Some people say that Muyuan’s binary backcross system can be fattened to mother, give birth 9 months earlier than others, and quickly capture the rising cycle. This is also true, but Muyuan’s panning system is more complicated.
Muyuan currently has a capacity of 2.75 million sows. From June 2021 to April 2022, Muyuan has eliminated a total of 2.15 million sows in 8 months, so a round of sows can be replenished in 12 months, and after 4 births disuse. Once the price of pigs rises and the culling is suspended, the high-efficiency period of each sow corresponds to the high-price period. At the same time, 200,000 backups can be transferred to the reproductive system per month, and the number of pigs can soar to 4 million in half a year.
As the cycle peaks come to an end, the sows gradually enter the culling period. Once the downside falls below the industry cost, it will quickly change to the high-scouring and high-paying model.
Conclusion: The low-period and low-age sows were culled rollingly, and the period high-period culling was suspended, and the number of sows increased rapidly. The low-cost binary backcross system ensures the counter-period adjustment of Muyuan sows.
4. Be the opponent of pig cycle emotions
In the first quarter of 2021, I saw on the Muyuan vx sales system that the price of 6 litter sows with piglets was 8,000 yuan. At that time, a piglet was 1,500 yuan. I was very distressed. Wouldn’t it make more money if Muyuan didn’t sell it and keep it? If you can have another litter, you will earn blood, but just a few months later, the price of pigs has plummeted, and the price of piglets has also plummeted.
As the price of pigs fell, the sales of piglets were not smooth. At this time, just so, a large number of fattening houses were built and sent to fattening smoothly. After several months of reflection, I found that everything was not right, and the operation of the Muyuan cycle was clearly visible, which can be roughly divided into four stages.
1) When the price of pigs rises: Suspend the elimination of sows, change the fattening house to the sow house, and increase the number of breeding and littering.
2) Late stage of high pig price: The elderly can be bred and sold in packages, selling secondary fattening pigs, reducing body weight and speeding up the turnover of stalls. With the largest cash flow inflow, further new production capacity will be built, and some of the completed production capacity will be put into production.
3) The price of pigs fell: the sales of piglets were not smooth, the self-bred piglets were sent to the fattening house, the sales of sows were not smooth, and the elimination of sows was accelerated.
4) In the later stage of low pig prices: sows are scouted and supplemented, new fattening production capacity is released, financing is used to supplement cash flow, the fattening system is adjusted, and a large number of fattening pigs are released for slaughter. Wait for the next cycle.
The greater the fluctuation, the more people are fascinated by the price of pigs rather than the cost. However, Lao Qin’s extreme polishing of the cost, people abandon me to take, and the anti-human mechanism of people to take what I give makes Muyuan’s driving cycle grow rapidly.
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