Who is suitable for value investment, not experience, education, IQ, but character.
Four traits of character: independence, interest, courage, and patience.
A few years ago, I saw this that Buffett and Munger talked about, and I didn’t get much insight.
However, after five years of investing in Muyuan, from an enterprise to an industry, macro policy, cycle formation and judgment, I deeply understand the true meaning of character.
Made a post yesterday about pig prices. The formation analysis of late cycle judgment and price judgment is put forward.
Since 2018, the methods of analyzing and judging the cycle and the trend of pig prices have also followed various market data, official research, research reports of securities companies, private research, grass-roots research, and so on. None of the results were accurate.
But I still can’t find where the problem is.
Until July in the second half of last year, we began to track the changes in piglet prices and costs, and began to analyze the changes in business strategies brought by pig prices to business operators from the perspective of business operators.
And record for continuous observation.
What really affects the current and future price changes of fattening pigs is the price of piglets corresponding to 10 to 11 months ago. This is determined by the commercial nature of any industry, that is, the pursuit of profit.
From July last year when piglet prices fell below the industry cost, until April this year, monthly breeding has been decreasing month by month. This is determined by the company according to market changes and its own cash flow. rather than market data.
The number of fattening pigs to be slaughtered in the current month is determined by the industry’s monthly breeding 10 months ago.
No one can count the number of breeding in the industry, and can only follow the business nature of the industry.
The complete cost of piglets in Muyuan is about 380 yuan, and the cost of self-bred piglets by companies such as Wen’s, New Hope, and Zhengbang is between 500 and 700. Therefore, the cost of piglets for large-scale enterprises in the industry is generally around 500 yuan (except for free-range farmers).
Therefore, we must always pay attention to the price of piglets in the future.
Courage and patience in character are actually a pair of contradictions.
When the price of pigs fell from the second half of 2020 to April this year, the stock price of Muyuan also fluctuated and consolidated for nearly two years. Holding or waiting to buy requires extreme patience.
If you want to make a bold decision to buy or sell, you need an accurate judgment on the trend and cycle of pig prices. $Muyuan Shares(SZ002714)$
There are 28 discussions on this topic in Snowball, click to view.
Snowball is an investor’s social network, and smart investors are here.
Click to download Snowball mobile client http://xueqiu.com/xz ]]>
This article is reproduced from: http://xueqiu.com/8418018079/220608299
This site is for inclusion only, and the copyright belongs to the original author.