Earnings Prospect | Pay for the exit of the Russian business! Can Netflix’s Q1 performance still exceed expectations?

Analysts expect Netflix to add 2.6 million subscribers in the first quarter, according to Refinitiv data.

Netflix (NFLX.US)$ will announce its latest quarterly earnings results after the U.S. stock market closes on April 19, Eastern Time. The market expects Netflix’s first-quarter earnings per share to be $2.9, a year-on-year decrease of 22.7%; revenue of $7.93 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%.

Netflix has beaten consensus earnings per share three times in the past eight quarters. Netflix has fallen 43.4% this year, making it the worst-performing FAANG stock.

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Weak new users

Analysts expect Netflix to add 2.6 million subscribers in the first quarter and 2.7 million in a seasonally weak second quarter, still below the average number of new subscribers added during the peak of the pandemic, according to Refinitiv data.

Analysts said the company’s subscriber growth will come from developing regions, where it has cut prices, while price increases in the U.S. and Canada will fund new content. Meanwhile, Netflix could lose about 1 million subscribers by pulling out of Russia.

Dan Morgan, senior portfolio manager at Synovus Trust, said: “Long-term, it’s hard for most investors to see a catalyst for another significant acceleration in Netflix’s net growth in fiscal 2023 or beyond.”

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Netflix is ​​pouring billions of dollars into more original movies and TV shows and developing mobile games to increase subscribers in a post-pandemic world, in fierce competition with HBO Max, Amazon and Disney.

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Entering the game field?

Netflix has acquired three game studios to diversify revenue streams, but analysts don’t expect a big jump in revenue from video games anytime soon.

“We don’t quite believe that users really see video games as a secondary feature,” said Morningstar analyst Neil Macker, adding that the move was just a “distraction” from its core business.

Netflix’s strongest challenger is Disney+, which launched in late 2019 and is expected to have about 230 million to 260 million subscribers over the next two years. Platforms such as HBO Max, Apple TV+ and Amazon Prime also saw significant growth in subscribers.

Netflix has been nominated for multiple Oscars in the past, while Apple became the first streaming company to win a Best Picture Oscar with “CODA.”

Editor/Viola

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