global macro

• The three major U.S. stock index futures rose slightly before the market on Tuesday

• European stocks broadly weaker on Tuesday

• Bullard: Will not rule out raising federal funds target rate by 75 basis points at May meeting

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a hawkish Fed official, said he would not rule out raising the federal funds target rate by 75 basis points at its May meeting. But he also noted that raising rates by 75 basis points is not his “base case”, but that he has often been ahead of other Fed policymakers over the past six months on tightening monetary policy.

• U.S. 30-year Treasury yields rose to 3% for the first time since early 2019

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to a new high of 2.909%, its highest level since late 2018. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 3% for the first time since early 2019.

• 88.8% chance the Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points in May

According to CME’s “Federal Reserve Watch”: the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points by May is 11.2%, the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is 88.8%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 0%; the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points by June There is a 0% probability of a 100 basis point hike or a 50 basis point rate hike, an 8.2% chance of a 75 basis point rate hike, a 67.7% chance of a 100 basis point rate hike, and a 24.1% chance of a 125 basis point rate hike.

• The Q1 earnings season of US stocks is worrying! Morgan Stanley warns of inflation ‘headwinds’

Morgan Stanley strategists said recently that rising costs have gradually eroded profit margins, while price pressures from the Russia-Ukraine conflict have hit consumer demand, and the positive impact of inflation on U.S. listed companies’ earnings growth has peaked. Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson said in a note on Monday that there were signs that the first-quarter earnings season “could be more disappointing than expected”, especially with forward-looking and performance guidance.

• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister: Russia intends to resume strategic stability dialogue with the United States at any time

According to satellite news, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said that Russia intends to resume the strategic and stable dialogue with the United States at any time, but the will of the United States cannot be seen at present.

• The situation in Donbas continues to heat up. Ukrainian representative: Russia is focused on its next phase of special military operations and has no time to consider negotiations

On the 19th local time, Podoljak, an adviser to the chief of the Office of the President of Ukraine and a member of the Ukrainian delegation to the Russian-Ukrainian negotiation, said that it is difficult to say when the next direct negotiations will be realized. Podoljak believes that Russia is so focused on the second phase of the special military operation currently underway in the Donbass that it has no time for negotiations. Ukraine believes that the Russian army has begun to attack the Donbas region, and the Russian side said that the operation in eastern Ukraine is proceeding in an orderly manner.

• Two oil futures fell 2.5%

Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil fell by 2.5% on the day, the lowest reported at 110.18 US dollars / barrel and 104.81 US dollars / barrel respectively.

• Standard Chartered: Oil market supply and demand balance in the second quarter, risks are biased towards excess

Analysts including Standard Chartered’s Emily Ashford and Paul Horsnell said in their latest outlook that oil supply and demand were balanced this quarter, with risks skewed towards excess. Before the Russian-Ukrainian conflict erupted, the market already had a supply buffer. The geopolitical conflict, coupled with rising oil prices and the impact of coronavirus lockdowns, have weighed on demand forecasts. Demand in the second quarter is expected to grow moderately by 594,000 bpd year-on-year, and may even fall short of expectations. Russia’s oil production in the second quarter is expected to fall by 2.45 million barrels per day, although the decline may be less than expected.

hot news

• Tesla Shanghai factory officially resumes production today

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ 8,000 employees at the Shanghai factory have arrived and officially resumed work and production today.

• Apollo Global Management is considering a bid for Twitter

Apollo Global Management is considering a bid for $Twitter (TWTR.US)$ , according to people familiar with the matter, according to The Wall Street Journal. Earlier, Musk offered to buy Twitter for $43 billion. Apollo has held discussions about a possible deal to back a takeover of Twitter, possibly offering equity or debt to Musk or other bidders such as private equity firm Thoma Bravo LP to back the takeover, while also considering its own companies Yahoo and Twitter. Twitter’s potential collaboration, but there’s no guarantee Twitter will accept it. Twitter is expected to reject Musk’s offer in the coming days, some of the people said.

• Mercedes-Benz to recall nearly 150,000 vehicles in U.S.

Daimler Benz (ADR) (DMLRY.US) will recall 147,749 vehicles in the United States, according to a notice from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

• Johnson & Johnson’s first-quarter revenue up 5% year-on-year, cuts 2022 guidance

$ Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US) $ announced first quarter 2022 results. According to the financial report, Johnson & Johnson’s Q1 revenue was US$23.426 billion, which was lower than market expectations, up 5% year-on-year; net profit was US$5.149 billion, down 16.9% year-on-year; diluted earnings per share were US$1.93, compared with US$2.32 in the same period last year. By region, U.S. sales were $11.414 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%; international sales were $12.012 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. Johnson & Johnson expects 2022 sales (excluding new crown vaccine revenue) to be 94.8 billion-95.8 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%-4.8%, and a previous forecast of 95.9 billion-96.9 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%-6.0%.

• American campus community company rose nearly 13% before the market, the media said that Blackstone will buy the company

U.S. Campus Communities Inc (ACC.US) $ U.S. stocks rose nearly 13% in premarket trading after media reports said Blackstone would buy AmericanCampus for $12.8 billion, including debt.

• Lockheed Martin US stocks fell more than 2% before the market, and the full-year performance forecast was slightly lower than market expectations

$ Lockheed Martin (LMT.US) $ 15 billion in net sales in the first quarter, compared with market estimates of $15.55 billion. Earnings per share were $6.44 in the first quarter, compared with $6.56 a year earlier. Lockheed Martin still expects full-year net sales of about $66 billion, compared with consensus estimates of $66.13 billion. Lockheed Martin still expects full-year earnings of about $26.7 per share, compared with consensus estimates of $26.77.

• TSMC plans to subsidize employees to buy their own stocks

$TSM (TSM.US)$ confirmed today that it is discussing subsidizing employees to buy their own company stocks, and the subsidy ratio and other related details are still to be decided by the board of directors. . It is reported that TSMC expects to recruit more than 8,000 employees this year, and will fully implement the “stock purchase subsidy” for more than 50,000 employees. Employees can deduct a certain amount of company stock from their salary every month, and the company will provide some subsidies. It is reported that the proportion of subsidies is approximately Below 15%, it is expected to be implemented in July.

Focus on Chinese concept stocks

• Li Auto Releases First Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Report

$Ideal Auto (LI.US)$ today released the first Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) report, which comprehensively shows the company’s achievements and contributions in five aspects: green operation, innovative products, compliance control, inclusiveness and care, and warm society . In 2021, Li Auto will respond to the national carbon neutralization goal with self-developed range extension technology and other actions, so as to promote the sustainable development of the company in the future. In 2021, Ideal Auto’s innovative R&D investment will reach 3.29 billion yuan. The main R&D and innovation achievements include: self-developed next-generation Zengcheng electric system and high-voltage pure electric technology, full-stack self-developed assisted driving system, and a comprehensive solution for in-vehicle interaction. Smart Cockpit System. By the end of 2021, Li Auto had accumulated 1,171 authorized patents and 494 registered and approved domestic trademarks.

• Li Xiang, CEO of Lixiang Auto: Auto brands should pay attention to the survival of small and medium-sized parts suppliers

Ideal CEO Li Xiang said on his social platform account that in addition to solving their own parts supply problems, auto brands should also analyze and investigate the survival problems of small and medium-sized parts suppliers, and provide decisive assistance. Li Xiang said: “In this round of Omicron’s epidemic, in addition to solving the problem of parts supply in front of them, all auto brands have to do a special management job: analyze in advance what you never need to manage. Small and medium-sized parts suppliers, including Tier 3, Tier 4, and Tier 5, are facing the problem of survival in this epidemic. In short, analyze and investigate in advance, and coordinate with Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers, and those supported by the aid will act decisively.”

• Geely Commercial Vehicles plans to introduce external capital and go public in the future

The reporter learned from people familiar with the matter that the $Geely Automobile (ADR) (GELYY.US)$ commercial vehicle group has considered the overall listing and is planning to introduce external investors to the society. Fan Xianjun, president of Geely Commercial Vehicle Group, previously said that Geely Commercial Vehicles has made some arrangements in the capital market, and “does not rule out the possibility of an IPO.”

Top 20 U.S. stocks by pre-market turnover

US macro case reminder

April 19

20:30 The total number of new housing starts in the United States in March, the total number of building permits in the United States in March

21:45 US President Biden holds a conference call on the Russia-Ukraine issue

April 20

00:05 Chicago Fed President Evans delivers a speech

02:45 US President Biden speaks on infrastructure

04:00 API crude oil inventories in the week from the United States to April 15

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