Original link: https://www.latepost.com/news/dj_detail?id=1158
Consumption is slowly recovering, and it took 8 months for Wuhan to return to the epidemic
From June 1st, Shanghai will resume community access, and public transportation and motor vehicle traffic will basically resume. Unblocking messages forwarded can be seen everywhere in WeChat groups and Moments. The comments included cheering, emotion, and self-deprecating overtime – the community or building was closed for reporting a case, or the person was taken away and quarantined due to close/sub-close contact.
The news of the unblocking was announced on May 30 by the “Shanghai Release”. The number of articles on the WeChat public account quickly exceeded 100,000, and the number of likes and views also rushed to five figures. Some friends from other provinces and cities cautiously inquired about their friends in Shanghai after seeing it, “Has Shanghai in the circle of friends been unblocked?”
The day before, Shanghai announced a number of policies aimed at resuming work and production as soon as possible and encouraging residents to consume. It seems that economic activities that have been suspended for nearly two months are about to resume, and some people are already looking forward to “retaliatory consumption.”
It is possible within a certain range. For example, people who have eaten group meals for two months or guaranteed supplies of supplies want to return to the state of eating whatever they want; people who don’t know when the community will be controlled again want to buy a freezer; Of… Considering that nearly 25 million people have been stunned for two months, even if only 10% is released, the scale is still considerable.
Residents’ employment expectations and income expectations in different environments affect their willingness to consume or save. This trend can be seen in areas where clustered outbreaks occurred in the mainland in the past few times, such as Guangzhou, Nanjing, Shenzhen, Zhengzhou, and Wuhan in early 2020. But that’s more like “restorative consumption” rather than the expected “retaliatory consumption.”
On the one hand, the economic restart is like the process of preparing for taxiing when the plane takes off. For example, Wuhan closed the city on January 23, 2020, and unblocked it on April 8. In April, local retail sales recovered to 73% of the same period in 2019, and then repaired month by month until December at the end of the year, which did not exceed the same period in 2019.
On the other hand, some consumption, such as the service industry, will disappear without it. Can’t make up for it. For accommodation and catering companies with an annual turnover of more than 5 million yuan in Hubei, the retail sales in April 2020 were only half of those in 2019, and at most 89.1% of the same period in 2019 (October) this year.
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Because people eat three meals a day, have their hair cut once every two weeks to a month, and stay in a hotel for one day when they go out for business trips, the suppressed demand is like lost time and cannot be recovered. Maybe people who dare to consume more food are better and more expensive. When they go out to play, they stay in a more expensive hotel. They were only washing, cutting and blowing, but now they are washing, cutting, blowing and ironing. But they don’t eat six meals a day, book two hotel rooms in one place, and get their hair cut three times a week.
There are also expectations for the future. After China brought the epidemic under control in the first half of 2020, it was once thought that it would be well controlled like SARS in 2003, and that the epidemic would basically no longer disturb the economy. Therefore, people dare to consume large-scale commodities, which supports the rebound of consumption to a certain extent. Take automobiles, for example, from April to the end of 2020, the national auto retail sales data is only lower than that of 2019 in June.
Since 2021, the above trends have become more pronounced. An outbreak occurred in Liwan District, Guangzhou from May to June 2021, with more than 170 people infected. The retail sales of goods and catering in Guangzhou in July, August and September were lower than those in the same period in 2019. The epidemic occurred in Nanjing from July to August 2021 and spread to many parts of the country. Compared with the same period in 2019, the local consumption growth rate of 30% fell to 4.4% in August, and it did not return to more than 30% until the end of the year.
Now, as Shanghai gradually resumes normal business activities, the epidemic in Beijing has also been brought under control, and many places have introduced policies to stabilize and promote consumption, such as issuing consumer coupons and direct cash subsidies. But this year things are more complicated.
A research report by the Changjiang Securities Research Institute said that consumption is usually conducted along the path of employment → income → expenditure, so theoretically, the stronger the employment expectations of residents, the more willingness to consume. Although the employment expectation index of the central bank’s questionnaire at the end of the first quarter rebounded, Baidu’s “unemployment” search index rose in stages, and residents’ willingness to save also increased.
In the first four months of this year, there have been two months of net repayment of housing loans in China, that is, residents have paid more money to banks than they have borrowed from them. The scale of regular savings of the four major banks has exceeded that of current savings. “Consumption willingness may remain under pressure, restraining the recovery in consumption growth,” the report said. (Gong Fangyi)
Huazhu’s occupancy rate in the first quarter was less than 60%, and losses expanded
Huazhu Group, which owns hotel brands such as JJ, Hanting, Manxin, and Orange Crystal, performed poorly in the first quarter of this year, with an overall occupancy rate of less than 60%, nearly 20% lower than the same period in 2019. Average revenue per available room fell to RMB 132, a decrease of 25%.
The group’s overall revenue increased by 15% year-on-year to 2.7 billion yuan. But the net loss reached 630 million yuan, 2.5 times that of the same period last year. The management said in the performance press release that the domestic hotel operation has encountered huge challenges, and for this reason, it has strengthened cost control, streamlined staff, reduced expenses, and sought rent relief from landlords.
However, under the influence of the epidemic, the number of hotels opened by Huazhu continued to grow. Among them, 302 hotels were newly opened in China (3 directly managed, 299 franchised), and 140 stores were closed (12 directly managed, 128 franchised). By the end of the first quarter, 1,299 hotels had been requisitioned in China, a significant increase from the 147 hotels in the fourth quarter of last year, accounting for 16.5% of the total number of hotels in operation. (Gong Fangyi)
Internet companies profit 35% less in April
- According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in April this year, domestic Internet companies with annual revenue of more than 20 million yuan had a pre-tax profit of only 16.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35%. Enterprises operating news, search, social networking, games, local life services, taxis, cloud computing and other businesses are within the scope of statistics as long as their income exceeds 20 million yuan.
- The revenue of these Internet companies totaled 120.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. According to the three major areas, data services (cloud services, big data services, etc.) have the fastest growth, online services (news, social networking, games, etc.) have a slightly higher growth rate than the industry average, while offline services (local life, car rental, tourism, etc.) fell significantly. The accumulated income in the first four months was about 20% less than last year, and the decline in April was deeper than that in March.
- Specific to the industry, a major source of income for online Internet companies is advertising. In the first quarter of this year, Tencent’s advertising revenue fell by nearly 20%. Although Kuaishou has about 30% more advertisements, the growth rate is only 1/5 of the same period last year. Cheng Yixiao said that all kinds of advertisers are becoming conservative.
- E-commerce is not doing well either, with Alibaba’s first quarterly GMV decline since its inception, and the percentage decline widened to double digits in April. JD.com’s revenue growth in the first quarter was half of last year’s. The growth of Pinduoduo’s advertising revenue has also slowed, and the growth rate is similar to that of the epidemic in early 2020.
- JD.com CEO Xu Lei said two weeks ago that the domestic epidemic two years ago was considered “good” for e-commerce, and offline consumption shifted to online; but this impact “should be a double kill for online and offline companies” “.
- It is more difficult to obtain income from offline contract performance. Taking online car-hailing as an example, the industry-wide order volume in April decreased by 40% compared with last year.
- In the first four months, the pre-tax profits of these companies also fell by 25% to 32.1 billion yuan.
- During this period, Alibaba and Kuaishou may have held back. In the first quarter of this year, Alibaba lost 16.2 billion yuan before tax, and Kuaishou lost 5.6 billion yuan. Tencent and Pinduoduo are companies that drive overall profits. The former’s pre-tax profit in the first quarter was 29 billion yuan, and the latter 3.1 billion yuan. (Wang Yuqing)
Musk: China leads the world in new energy vehicles; He Xiaopeng: It will take 10 years
- In response to a tweet today, Elon Musk said: “It seems that few people realize that China is leading the world in renewable energy generation and electric vehicles. No matter how you look at China, this is Facts.” This tweet is about China’s largest installed wind power capacity in the world.
- He Xiaopeng reposted this sentence on Weibo and said: “I don’t understand renewable energy power generation. China is only at the forefront of the world in the field of electric vehicles. To lead the world, in addition to leading in technology and products, it is more important to be in It will take at least 10 years to become a leader in the global market and to win in business.”
- To a certain extent, Musk is right: China’s installed wind power generation capacity, solar power grid-connected installed capacity, and hydropower generation are the world’s largest. The production and sales of new energy vehicles are also the first in the world.
- However, looking at a single brand, there is no domestic brand that can compare with Tesla’s sales. In 2021, 6.5 million new energy vehicles will be sold globally, of which Tesla will have 940,000, which is 1.6 times that of the second-ranked BYD. Weilai, Xiaopeng, and Ideal all have more than 90,000 vehicles, which are one-tenth of Tesla. In terms of global markets, Tesla has entered 48 countries last year, BYD has slightly more than it, and NIO aims to enter 25 countries by 2025.
- Upstream of the industry, in the manufacture of the three key components of new energy vehicles (battery, motor, and electronic control), the domestic advantage is the battery, with a global market share of 50%. However, there is still a gap between the high specific energy battery and the international level. The high-quality motors and electronic control chips with an efficiency of 97% also mainly rely on imports. (Wang Yuqing)
Policies to encourage car consumption, tax cuts, cash subsidies, and increased license plate quotas
- On May 29, Shanghai issued the “Shanghai Action Plan for Accelerating Economic Recovery and Revitalization”, which mentioned the need to vigorously promote automobile consumption and add 40,000 non-commercial passenger vehicle licenses during the year. During the year, individual consumers who scrap or transfer out qualified passenger cars and buy pure electric cars will receive a subsidy of 10,000 yuan per car.
- Earlier than Shanghai, more than a dozen provinces and cities have introduced measures to encourage car purchases. Guangzhou and Shenzhen have added new car purchase indicators. Shandong, Zhejiang, Tianjin, Shenzhen, Changchun, Shenyang, Taiyuan, Zhengzhou, Qingdao, etc. have subsidized car purchases ranging from several thousand yuan to ten thousand yuan. Hubei and Jiangxi also organized cars to go to the countryside, and Hainan subsidized cars. Enterprise promotion.
- Automobile consumption will account for 10% of the total retail sales in 2021. Coupled with the long industrial chain, it will play a significant role in supporting retail sales and ensuring employment. Therefore, when the macro economy encounters challenges, the government often chooses to stimulate automobile consumption.
- In this round of stimulus, what the market is most looking forward to may be the “phased reduction of 60 billion yuan in purchase tax for some passenger cars” clearly mentioned at the National Standing Committee on May 23. 10% to 5%). The previous two purchase tax reductions – in 2009 to 2010 and 2015 to 2017 – had immediate effects.
- This time things are a little different. Since June 2021, the retail sales of passenger vehicles in the narrow sense have been almost inferior to the same period in previous years, and only in February this year has achieved year-on-year growth. Data shows that in 2021, more than 60% of new car owners in China will use loans, compared with only 34% in 2015. The value of the car will depreciate when it is landed, and the purchase of such a commodity with a loan must be based on a relatively optimistic attitude towards future income, or the purchase of a car is just needed. (Lin Guangying)
Hong Kong, China to further ease immigration measures from next month
- The Hong Kong SAR government announced on Sunday (May 29) that as the global epidemic eases and prevention and control measures have been strengthened, it will relax some entry restrictions from June 1, including:
- Arrival passengers only need to show the nucleic acid certificate 48 hours before the trip, and no longer require the qualification certificate of the testing agency;
- Transfer or transit passengers are no longer required to provide nucleic acid certificates;
- If there is a passenger who does not meet the boarding conditions on the flight, the flight will not be banned immediately. Instead, a warning and a fine of HK$20,000 will be issued. If the violation is repeated within 10 days, the airline will be banned from flying for 5 days;
- However, passengers still need to be isolated in a closed-loop after arriving in Hong Kong, and the nucleic acid testing requirements have been adjusted from the 5th and 12th days to the 5th, 9th and 12th days. The person in charge said that doing one more test will help to find cases with a longer incubation period or infection in hotels earlier.
- Japan also announced last week that from June 10, tourists from 98 low-risk areas including China and the United States will not be required to be vaccinated, and will not be required to be tested or quarantined after entry; tourists from medium- and high-risk areas are still required to be vaccinated or quarantined for observation.
- Singapore liberalized earlier. From April 1, as long as the complete vaccination is completed, they can be exempted from isolation. From April 26, the complete vaccination will no longer be required to provide a nucleic acid certificate, and there is no need for testing or isolation after entry.
- According to statistics, currently 55 countries and regions have completely cancelled entry-level epidemic prevention measures, and over 30% are European countries. Including the United Kingdom, Austria, Iceland, Belgium, Switzerland, Sweden, Bulgaria, Jamaica, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Mexico, Maldives and more. Countries that are highly dependent on tourism revenue are more inclined to open up early. Mongolia was the first country in Asia to lift all restrictions (March 14) and Vietnam was the first in Southeast Asia (May 13). (Lin Guangying)
OTHER NEWS
Lai Jianfa, vice president of ZTO, has resigned and will be replaced by Lai Meisong, chairman of ZTO.
According to media reports, ZTO announced on the 29th that the company’s board of directors had approved Lai Jianfa’s resignation application on the 27th. ZTO said Lai Meisong, ZTO’s chairman and chief executive, will take over as Lai Jianfa’s vice president. Lai Jianfa served as the executive vice president of ZTO in 2013, responsible for the daily management of the company, and became the executive director of ZTO Express in 2015. Lai Jianfa, 53, is worth $1.6 billion, while Lai Meisong, 51, is worth $5.2 billion, according to Forbes’ real-time billionaires list.
The number of air ticket reservations for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday is 30% higher than that of “May Day”.
Based on data from travel platforms such as Ctrip, Qunar, and Tongjing.com, the number of air ticket bookings for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday has increased by 30% compared with the May Day holiday, and the price of air tickets has also increased by 28%. The Guangzhou-Shenzhen area, Chengdu-Chongqing area, Hainan and other places less affected by the epidemic saw the most significant growth in air ticket bookings. The Yangtze River Delta is also recovering, and the popularity of Suzhou, Changzhou, Hangzhou and other cities has increased by more than 50% compared with the May Day holiday; Shanghai ranks in the top ten most popular cities for same-trip travel—mainly because locals care about how to get out. Without tourists from big cities, the average price of high-star hotels dropped by 30%, and some dropped by more than half. More people choose to camp, and the order volume is 40% higher than last year.
This year VCs raised 47% more money for companies in Southeast Asia and India than for China.
Venture capital funds focused on investing in Southeast Asia and India have raised $3.1 billion so far this year, according to research firm Preqin, close to the $3.5 billion raised in all of last year and 47 percent more than VCs focused on China. At present, VC financing into China is about $2.1 billion, and it doesn’t look like it will return to the level of $27.2 billion last year.
The results of the Phase II clinical trial of Fubitai in China were announced, and 99.7% of the vaccinated people produced new crown antibodies.
The “Lancet” preprint platform published the results of the Phase II clinical trial of the mRNA new crown vaccine “Forbidi” in China. The study subjects were 959 Chinese people aged 18-85, some of whom had stable underlying diseases. Study subjects received 2 doses of the pre-vaccine or placebo 21 days apart. The vaccine was able to induce a strong immune response and was well tolerated in Chinese adults. 99.7% of the vaccinated people produced antibodies against the new crown in the serum. Adverse reactions following vaccination were only observed to be mild and moderate, and all resolved within a few days. Long-term safety tracking is still underway.
Xiaoice established a game studio to develop “emotional” NPCs.
Xiaoice announced the establishment of ICEGamer game studio, the goal is to use AI technology to make “emotional” game NPCs (non-player characters) and increase the game interaction experience. At present, the studio is working on the first open world mobile game, and the partner is Qichuangshe Bump World. The background of studio members includes major game companies such as Changyou, Perfect World, and NetEase, as well as some core AI teams in “Little Iceland”. “Little Iceland” is a “social network” composed of human users and AI previously developed by Xiaoice. Each AI in it has a different “character”, which is somewhat similar to game NPCs.
CATL may supply cylindrical batteries for BMW.
According to the Financial Associated Press, CATL has received BMW’s “Spotted Notice” and will supply cylindrical batteries for BMW’s new electric models. Cylindrical batteries are relatively cheaper to manufacture and more efficient to produce . According to people familiar with the matter, BMW’s new car with cylindrical batteries can store more energy per unit volume. Compared with Tesla’s cylindrical batteries, the energy density will be at least double-digit percentages higher, and the car’s cruising range will be reduced. longer. BMW did not officially respond to the news.
The second Moutai ice cream shop opened in Guiyang, which is more expensive than Haagen-Dazs.
On the opening day of the second Moutai Ice Cream, three new ice creams (pre-packaged), Classic Original, Green Plum Boiled Wine, and Vanilla were launched. The three new flavors are different from the previously listed products in terms of packaging and price. The price of the three models is around 60 yuan/cup, and the proportion of Moutai liquor is 2%, 1.6%, and 2%, respectively. In addition to offline store sales, Moutai has also opened online sales channels on the “i Moutai” App, but online sales are currently limited to some areas in Guiyang.
China hikes refined oil prices.
The National Development and Reform Commission announced that from 24:00 today (30th), the domestic gasoline price will increase by 400 yuan per ton, and the diesel price will increase by 390 yuan per ton. After this round of price adjustments, the price of 92-# gasoline was increased by 0.31 yuan per liter, and the 92-# gasoline in many places approached or exceeded 9 yuan per liter.
The spread of the epidemic caused a shortage of parts, and Toyota missed its April production target.
Toyota said on the 30th that global production in April fell by 9.1% year-on-year to 692,000 vehicles, which was less than its previous production forecast of 750,000 vehicles. At the same time, global sales in April also fell 11.1% year-on-year to 764,000 vehicles, and domestic sales in Japan fell nearly 17% to 103,000 vehicles (excluding Daihatsu and Hino). This is mainly due to the shortage of parts and components caused by the epidemic, which has affected production. Last week, Toyota also lowered its June global production forecast to 800,000 vehicles twice because of the same problem.
Blackstone’s Asia-Pacific credit business expanded ninefold.
Blackstone Group plans to expand the assets of its private credit business in the Asia-Pacific region to $5 billion in the short term, a nine-fold increase from the $500 million it committed in the fourth quarter of last year. The relevant person in charge said that Asia-Pacific companies are increasingly seeking financing from sources other than bank loans, and the demand for private credit is accelerating. Blackstone is targeting large-scale transactions in high-growth fields such as life sciences and technology, and a single transaction can exceed $1 billion. In the first quarter of this year, Blackstone’s global credit and insurance business scale was about 266 billion US dollars, with North America accounting for more than 80% and Europe about 16%.
American tourism is up, and there are not enough pilots.
According to data from aviation analyst Cirium, the six major U.S. airlines saw their domestic capacity drop by 8.3% in June compared with pre-pandemic levels, and by 6.6% in July. Mainly because of the lack of pilots, thousands of pilots retired early in the early days of the epidemic, and newly trained pilots couldn’t keep up with the speed of aviation recovery. According to travel booking company Embark Beyond, about 20% of users have encountered flight cancellations, delays, changes and other issues, compared with only 3% to 5% before the epidemic.
Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund acquires UK student housing properties for £3.3bn.
According to media reports, Singapore’s Government Investment Corporation (GIC) and US property developer Greystar have successfully purchased a British student apartment portfolio for 3.3 billion pounds, beating out rivals such as Blackstone. The market believes that the price of student apartments can be adjusted frequently, which is more resistant to the impact of inflation, and the return of students will also increase the occupancy rate. GIC has invested in a string of UK student housing over the past 10 years, and Blackstone last month finalised a $12.8 billion acquisition of US campus apartment properties.
SoftBank executives slashed pay after historic losses.
Four of SoftBank’s top six executives have seen their pay dropped, documents disclosed on Monday showed. Arm chief Simon Segars, who stepped down in February this year, earned an annual salary of about $9 million, nearly 40% less than last year; Ronald Fisher, who resigned as the leader of the Vision Fund’s U.S. division in April, earned about $1 million, a decrease of 86%. CEO Masayoshi Son’s salary remains unchanged at about $785,000. SoftBank posted a net loss of $13.1 billion in the fiscal year that ended in March, with the tech-focused Vision Fund losing about $20.5 billion.
Ernst & Young considers splitting its audit and advisory business in response to regulatory concerns.
According to media reports, Ernst & Young is considering splitting its audit and consulting business, possibly moving some services, such as tax advice, to the audit function and then providing consulting services to non-audit clients. Partly because advisory and tax services are more lucrative and growing faster, regulators are concerned it could affect the independence of the audit business. Ernst & Young generated $40 billion in global revenue in fiscal 2021, of which $13.6 billion was from audit and the rest from tax and advisory services.
The Pokémon Company doubled its operating profit last fiscal year.
The Pokémon Company, which owns IPs such as Pikachu and Duck, released its annual report for the fiscal year ended February 28 this year. In the fiscal year, sales were about 10.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.15%; operating profit was 3.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 115.29%. The Pokémon Company is a joint venture established by Nintendo, GAME FREAK and Creatures. It is mainly engaged in the development of Pokémon IP. In 2020, a subsidiary will be established in China to do games, IP licensing and film and television business in the Chinese market.
Text | Gong Fangyi Lin Guangying Intern Wang Yuqing Intern Yi Silin
Editor | Gong Fangyi
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