$Meituan-W(03690.HK)$ will announce results for the first quarter ended March on June 2.

Astaq’s comprehensive forecast of 14 brokerages indicates that Meituan’s Q1 Non-Gaap net loss in 2022 is expected to range from RMB 3.894 billion to RMB 5.099 billion, which is an increase of 0.05% year-on-year compared to the Q1 Non-Gaap net loss of RMB 3.892 billion in 2021. to 31%; the median was a loss of RMB 4.735 billion, an increase of 21.7% year-on-year, mainly due to the impact of the new crown epidemic on Meituan’s food delivery and in-house hotel and travel businesses.

According to Bloomberg, based on the opinions of 63 institutions, 58 analysts gave “buy”, accounting for 92.1%; 4 analysts gave “hold”, accounting for 6.3%; 1 analyst gave “buy” Sell”, accounting for 1.6%.

Goldman Sachs research report pointed out that although the epidemic blockade and control measures in March brought some negative effects, the performance will remain basically stable. Adjusted EBIT loss was RMB 5 billion, wider than the loss of RMB 4.6 billion in the fourth quarter of last year. The bank expects investors to focus on the latest impact of the outbreak on its core businesses, particularly storefronts, hotels and travel, followed by additional spending and cost impacts from the lockdown measures.

Lyon Research Report believes that due to the impact of the epidemic control measures, Meituan’s Q1 core food distribution and in-store revenue was 31.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15%; and it is expected that core revenue growth in the second quarter will decelerate to low single digits , but it is believed that it will rebound quickly after the lifting of the lockdown measures.

Takeaway business:

China Merchants Securities Research Report believes that the growth rate of Meituan Food Delivery slowed down in March due to the impact of the epidemic, and the short-term fluctuations did not change the long-term space. It is expected that the company’s food delivery business will grow steadily from January to February, but the catering supply in some cities has been affected by the epidemic since March. Due to the shortage of rider capacity, the growth rate of single volume has slowed down significantly in the mid-to-late period. At the same time, it is expected that the implementation of the bailout policy will have a small impact on MR. In the long run, take-out is a more efficient social catering solution, and the expansion of new businesses such as consolidating meals and group meals has also provided new impetus for the long-term growth of the company’s take-out business.

Shenwan Hongyuan Research Report believes that since March, affected by the epidemic in Shenzhen, Shanghai and other places, Meituan’s takeaway, offline catering and retail businesses have slowed down. The bank predicts that Meituan’s total transaction volume in Q1 is 162.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%; Q1 revenue is 23.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.0%; , mainly due to the decrease in commission and marketing service income during the epidemic.

Hotel business:

China Merchants Securities Research Report believes that the short-term impact of the epidemic is relatively obvious, and the long-term potential of the business is optimistic. It is expected that the company’s hotel and hotel business will grow well from January to February, and the growth rate will slow down significantly in March due to the impact of the epidemic. The proportion of first-tier cities is higher than that of take-out, and it is expected that the impact will be higher than that of take-out. In the long run, there is still room for a substantial increase in the online penetration rate of the hotel and hotel travel business, and the company has significant competitive advantages. We remain optimistic about the long-term development potential of this business, and maintain that the hotel and hotel travel business will achieve a revenue compound of more than 25% by 2025. Forecast of growth rate and operating profit margin above 40%.

Shenwan Hongyuan Research Report believes that Meituan’s demand for hotels and travel is shrinking, but its business prospects are still optimistic. The bank predicts that Meituan will achieve revenue of 7.55 billion yuan in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 15%; operating profit will be 2.54 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 34%. The bank said that the Q1 occupancy rate and average room price will be under pressure, but as the epidemic is under control, the demand for business accommodation will continue to rebound, the demand for low-end hotel travel will increase, and the conversion rate of advertising spending is expected to increase to the monetization ability of the store business. .

Community group buying business:

China Merchants Securities Research Report believes that Meituan is focusing on operating efficiency while developing at a high speed. It is expected that Q1 new business revenue will increase by 41% year-on-year, with an operating loss of 9.5 billion yuan, of which Meituan has a loss of 6 billion yuan. While maintaining the rapid growth of new businesses this year, the company has focused on improving operational efficiency. In April, the company preferred to gradually withdraw from areas with low unit density and weak profitability, such as the Northwest, mainly for the sake of ROI, without changing the long-term strategic value of community e-commerce. . In addition, the rapid development of new businesses such as flash sales, grocery shopping, Tuanhaohuo, and Kuaidong is expected to contribute to the company’s revenue and profit growth in the long run.

Zheshang Securities Research Report believes that Meituan’s new business revenue is expected to be 12.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, a month-on-month decline of 15.6%, and 13.0% lower than the consensus expectation. The operating loss rate has been significantly reduced, and the operating loss is lower than the consensus expectation. The bank said that this is mainly due to the strategic change in the community group buying business. Meituan’s community group buying business has switched from “share and growth priority” to “balanced development of share and growth”, especially in the face of more efficient and powerful This strategy is more sensible when the opponent is fighting a lot.

In addition, investors also pay attention to the latest business strategies of Meituan Select after exiting Gansu, Qinghai and other markets, product SKU (stock keeping unit) adjustment, how to improve economies of scale and return on investment (ROI), etc., as well as prevention and control measures in some parts of the mainland Impact on company operations and the latest guidance.

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