Good evening everyone, I’m Brother Knife.
It has been 1 year and 4 months since the collapse of Zhonggai Internet in February 2021, and it has been almost 1 and a half years. In these 1 and a half years, the trend is really bloody:
The maximum adjustment is 1- 20.41/102.36 = 80%. The maximum adjustment range is 80%. Note that this is an index, and the adjustment range is larger than the financial crisis of that year, and larger than many stock market crashes in history, but this is a real adjustment.
There is nothing wrong with the fundamentals in itself. There are 3 reasons why it is so big:
1. The issue of domestic policy suppression, the core of “preventing the disorderly expansion of capital”, has put a sword on every Zhongguang’s head, including some Internet companies that were indeed fined, and some education stocks because of A4. The paper is directly wiped out;
2. According to the “Foreign Company Accountability Act”, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) audited the manuscripts of Zhongguang, and frictions with domestic regulators may lead to the delisting of some Zhongquan. Probably did a secondary listing in HK;
3. Some Chinese concept stocks had high valuations before the adjustment, and there was a certain bubble;
4. The impact of the domestic epidemic and the impact of real estate have a great impact on the domestic economy, and China Concept Internet Company has also been affected;
5. The potential decoupling between China and the United States has caused many foreign investors to close their positions based on compliance.
Combining the above reasons, Zhonggao has adjusted by up to 80% in the past nearly one and a half years. This means that some Chinese concept stocks can be adjusted by more than 90%, for example, the shells we are familiar with:
The maximum adjustment of this magnitude exceeds 90%.
Risks come up and opportunities come down. My personal opinion is that Zhongguang is still undervalued as a whole when the highest decline reaches 80% and now it rebounds slightly .
The worst-case scenario in the future is that most of China Probables will return to Hong Kong for listing, but many of them have already been listed in Hong Kong for a second time, which will not affect the valuation of China Probability.
The valuation of many companies has reached a very cost-effective range.
In particular, the domestic support for the platform economy and the support for Chinese companies listed overseas indicate that the policy has undergone a huge shift. At the same time, the fundamentals of Zhongguang are also recovering (the social value of Zhongguang can be seen under the epidemic).
From March 2022 to the present, I personally think that it is the bottom. This should be the best time for Zhongjing to open a position. From the perspective of business model, most of the companies in Zhonggao are very good, in terms of revenue, cash flow, net profit, gross profit margin, and net profit margin , they are all very good. These companies that everyone uses all the time, I believe that each of us has a steel scale in our hearts.
In fact, I personally have been investing in OTC funds since last year, but because of the purchase restriction, I did not buy much, but since March, I have increased the purchase of two funds (Hang Seng Technology Index and E Fund Asia Select: China Crisis: Falling from the bottom of the diamond ), because there is no limit on purchases, so I buy more, plus the recent rebound in Zhongquan, I have recovered a lot in general, but overall it is still in a state of loss, with a loss of more than 20%, Hang Seng Technology The index and E Fund Asia selection have a profit of about 10%. However, I have more confidence in the prospects of Zhongguang. I always believe that there are too many excellent companies in Zhongguang. We will not talk about the big companies. Some current small market value companies, such as Pinduoduo, Shell, Meituan, Ctrip and so on.
Two years ago, when Huabao Oil & Gas and Southern Crude Oil fell to the bottom, many people actually left when they rebounded slightly. Today, we may encounter a similar situation again. Recently, China has started to rebound. I intuitively think that there may be some people who will gradually reduce their positions during the rebound. The so-called right side is always just talking about it. Know what the right side is.
Finally, here are some of the China Concept Funds I currently invest in for your reference:
1. E Fund CSI Overseas 50ETF Link, 006327.
This should be the most positive China Concept Fund, with Alibaba and Tencent having the largest weights:
The ingredients can be viewed on the official website of China Securities Index, as follows:
The index has A and C, with a limit of 300. Since the beginning of this year, I have bought 600 yuan almost every day, which is not much, and the overall position I bought is not much:
2. BOCOM CSI Overseas China Internet Index, 164906.
The subscription has been suspended very early, probably because of the QDII quota. I bought some before, and I am still losing money.
3. Celestica Hang Seng Technology Index, 012348. This is considered to have been bought since March. Because of unlimited purchases, I bought more.
4. Zhang Kun’s E Fund Asia Selected Stock, 118001, also bought more because of unlimited purchases. At present, these two indexes have relatively good returns because of the recent rebound.
There are also some indexes in the market, but I have never liked the market very much, so I haven’t bought it in the market so far. The advantage of the venue is that there are no restrictions on purchases. However, it may also be a disadvantage. It may be uncontrollable, and the position will be given to Stud at a high level.
Statement: I hold long positions in these funds, but have no interest in these funds. And the above is only for personal investment and purchase, for your reference only. Investing is risky, you should be cautious.
Today, Meituan just announced its quarterly report, I read it, and it was pretty good. Meituan: Revenue in the first quarter was 46.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%; adjusted net loss was 3.586 billion yuan, compared with a loss of 3.892 billion yuan in the same period last year.
From a separate point of view, the new business (community group purchase) losses are still relatively serious, and this may have to be a choice in 1-2 quarters (either will see the direction, or really have to give up). I don’t know what Wang Xing thinks.
The core takeaway and in-store businesses are cash cows, which are performing well.
Investing in Meituan is different from investing in Alibaba and Tencent Holdings. Meituan is a venture capital investment, and Meituan is still expanding, so I personally don’t think it should be too heavy, and it should be a venture capital investment. This financial report, as a whole, seems to be a neutral preference, especially revenue, and a 25% increase, which is true.
There is one more thing today, Zhongshun Jierou: The actual controller proposed that the employees should increase their holdings of the company’s shares and the commitments have been fulfilled. As of May 30, 2022 (the date of calculation of losses), there are a total of 264 employees who meet the compensation conditions and are eligible for compensation. The number of compensation shares for conditional employees totals 1.1486 million shares, and the amount of compensation required is 25.4578 million yuan.
The boss really compensated. However, the amount of compensation here is not much, and the boss can afford it.
The problem with Zhongshun is that the company is not a great product, and it is unlikely to enjoy a high valuation, but the current valuation is not expensive.
Finally, I plan to write some stories about foreign trade people making money on our company’s official account. You can also pay attention to this account. When I have time, I will share articles on foreign trade, life, industry, business thinking, etc. on this account: follow Foreign trade people talk about making money ideas (1)
Oh, by the way, we have been unblocked since 5.31 pm. I have been outside for the past two days. It is really comfortable and magical outside, even if it is just for a walk. However, there have been a lot of rebounds in WeChat group postings these days, but it doesn’t seem to be that many in reality. At least for now, it’s still normal. I think the next week is very critical. If there is no rebound, the future may be normal, but the queuing problem of 72-hour nucleic acid needs to be solved.
Good night everyone, thank you for your likes and comments.
$China Internet ETF(SH513050)$ $China Internet Index ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$ $Meituan-W(03690)$
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