I’m really sorry, if you really want to know how the A-share market will go in the next month, Brother Sheng can’t give you any advice. After all, Brother Sheng has given up fortune-telling for a long time.
In fact, staring at the trend of short-term markets such as the next few days and a week will have more side effects for most ordinary investors, especially when the market enters the bottom area, it will often be covered by short-term problems and adjustments. I closed my eyes and forgot that it is precisely because of these short-term problems that there are good opportunities for medium and long-term investment layout.
This week’s weekly strategy, in addition to talking about the understanding of the market, brushes up some common sense and long-term logic, don’t be fascinated by the current fluctuations, and find medium and long-term investment opportunities.
1. The market is grinding the bottom
Looking back at the entire market last week, we can basically describe the continuous decline of the Shanghai Composite Index, the continuous shrinking of trading volumes in the two markets, and the continued sluggish confidence. It can be said that emotionally and technically, the performance of the entire market is not very good.
How to understand it?
If it is chasing up new energy, it may be really painful. CS Xinneng Vehicle ((399976.SZ)) fell 7.44% throughout the week, the photovoltaic industry (931151.CSI) fell 7.53%, and many stocks in the industry fell. It has reached or even exceeded 10-20% (Wind, 2022.08.29-2022.09.02). Since the beginning of July, we have repeatedly emphasized not to chase the price. The worry is that investors will encounter a relatively large drawback risk after chasing the price. is a historical law.
However, if it is not chasing high valuation directions such as new energy and maintaining a relatively balanced allocation, it is actually not that bad. The Shanghai Composite Index only fell by 1.54% throughout the week. , securities companies, home appliances, farming, etc., are fairly stable. (Wind, 2022.08.29-2022.09.02)
And on the whole, the valuation of the CSI 300 is only about 12 times (Wind, 2022.09.02), and the market is more like a bottom-grinding stage.
2. Why are you optimistic now?
Last weekend, we released “Strategic bullish open, pessimism is a thing of the past (fund investment and advisory portfolio strategy in September 2022)” , and launched our family’s fixed investment doubling plan on Monday (that is, our family plans to increase every Monday. The original fixed investment amount), many friends are very interested in our views, there are many inquiries publicly and privately, and we basically give answers.
So why are we starting to be strategically long now?
We have covered the core issues in the September strategy report. You can click the link above to view them. However, we can also try to give the answer from another angle, that is, the cyclical inflection point of the market is looming.
How to understand it?
We observed the phenomenon. First, the short-term impact of the epidemic, which everyone is more worried about, has obviously entered the middle and late stages, or even in the late stage, but it is not known how to solve it and when.
Then there is the part of real estate and the Internet, we will talk about it in the next paragraph;
Second, in the face of various negatives and pressures, the market’s ability to undertake and stabilize is beyond expectations. If it is weak, it is strong. It is necessary to believe that the market will speak for itself;
Third, the current valuation of CSI 300 is only about 12 times (Wind, 2022.09.02), and the adjustment has been carried out for more than 9 months. The expectation of economic recovery in 2023 is still relatively clear;
Fourth, why now? Why not the end of the year, not next year? how to say? On the one hand, you can wait until that time or when there is a clear signal to be strategically optimistic, but you must know that the A-share market has always attached more importance to expectations, and funds like to act in advance. Often when the signal is clear, the market has already performed;
On the other hand, this position is already a relative bottom area. If this position is fully laid out, it will lose some time at most. Isn’t it worth it?
3. How to view real estate and the Internet
For the governance of real estate and the Internet, no matter from any point of view, it should be correct. The real estate bubble has a certain suppressing effect on the economy, and the secondary impact in this process is also inevitable. The clearing process is over.
In this process, don’t have illusions and blindly participate in real estate stock investment. Before the real bottoming is completed, there are too many uncontrollable factors;
In addition, there is no need to worry too much about the impact of the real estate adjustment process. Looking back on every transformation in history, as long as enough space and direction are given, the probability of success is very high, and the real estate is just squeezing the bubble. The speculative part is driven out.
Regarding the Internet, it is fundamentally different from real estate. As we said in the previous video, some Internet companies have violated regulations. Now that they are managed well, they will still encourage development, and their logic is more like liquor. , Some leading Internet companies can still focus on improving economic efficiency, reducing costs, revenue and profit margins. This has been reflected in the second quarter financial reports released by various Internet companies recently. The profits of many companies rate is beyond expectations.
4. Why it is necessary to break through hard technology
In every era, there is a main line of social and economic development. The main line of the market in 2007 was the explosion of resource cycles, infrastructure and other industries brought about by global demand after China joined the World Trade Organization;
The main line of the market in 2015 was Internet+. The Internet was rapidly popularized in China and penetrated into all levels of people’s life needs. Only then did the Internet+ market explode.
The main line of these two rounds of market is the main line of China’s economic and social development at that time, but what is the main line of China’s economic development now?
It is hard technology. In the future, whether it is artificial intelligence or industrial intelligence, as well as the development of biological science, breakthroughs in the direction of hard technology are required. These directions all represent the future of a better life for mankind.
Therefore, hard technology is the future development direction, but don’t chase it when it rises too much in the short term. When adjusting, it’s good to consider active layout. It’s ok to maintain a certain concentration and basic configuration.
V. Strategic Opportunities for A Shares in the Future
Different from the pessimism of many people, the more we look at the long-term, the more optimistic we are about A-shares, and the more we feel that it is a strategic opportunity, which comes from the following aspects.
1. The stage has come. In general, the system construction of the capital market is becoming more and more standardized. The fraudulent behavior of listed companies and the inaction of intermediaries have been strictly controlled. There are reasons to believe that the capital market will be healthier and the value of investment will be will gradually appear.
2. The positioning has changed. In the past, the development of enterprises relied more on indirect financing with banks as the main body. With the establishment of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, the development of most hard technologies began to rely on the direct financing of IPOs based on the capital market. The risks and benefits are transferred to the capital market.
3. Demands have changed. In the past, ordinary people could maintain and increase their wealth by purchasing houses. Now, not only have most real estates entered a period of stable fluctuations, they may have lost their functions of speculation and appreciation, and many counties can easily have millions of houses. The threshold is also very high. Looking around, the advantages of the capital market are relatively obvious if it can meet the major categories of residents’ investment and financial management.
There is a saying: is it the era of heroes, or the heroes of the era? For the next few years or even longer, the main line of investment in the era is likely to be the capital market.
6. Why pay attention to fund investment
In last week’s message, a friend said that our fund investment and advisory portfolio is at a low position, and we can make a little money. I did not reply to him. This kind of thing can be left to the future.
However, we still have to say that the fund investment advisory portfolio is indeed not used to obtain high returns. From the design and starting point itself, the purpose of the fund investment advisory portfolio is not this, but through the investment + companionship in the investment advisory service, as much as possible. To expand the profit area and change the situation of “funds make money but Christian Democrats do not make money”, on this basis, strive for progress while maintaining stability as much as possible, and pursue a better rate of return.
In the future, if we can really help more investors get rid of the loss situation, and let them share the dividends of China’s capital market and realize profits, we are really proud, even if it is only “earning a little”, of course, we Will definitely strive for better yields.
I also kindly remind everyone here that it is not necessary to choose a fund investment advisory portfolio, but also to choose a fund. From the perspective of investment targets, the characteristics of funds, especially index funds, can avoid the black swan of individual stocks to a certain extent. To a certain extent, investors are prevented from making wrong decisions in the huge fluctuation of individual stocks, and the friendliness of investment is higher, which should be paid attention to.
The above is the weekly strategy for this week, for your reference only.
Tomorrow will be Monday, which is the day when our family routinely invests in Yinhua Tianji – Quietly Winning and Yearly Red, and it is also the second week of our family’s scheduled investment doubling plan. Will cherish the opportunities given by the market in the adjustment;
In addition, it should be noted that we have never only sung too much. Take a look at our articles “N is still one, where are the opportunities (Strategy report for the second half of 2022)” and “The suspension of fixed investment does not mean bearishness, it is for a more stable walk. Further, etc., we not only made an objective analysis and research on the possible risks and opportunities in the second half of the year, but also clearly prompted the short-term possible risks of new energy in early July, and stopped the scheduled investment.
Investment advisory business is from the buyer’s perspective and wealth management. It is a very meaningful and hard work to communicate and guide around investment value. After a long time, you will know the value.
This week, I will communicate with you about the above strategies. I wish everyone a smooth investment and a harmonious family.
risk warning
This article does not constitute investment advice, the market has risks, and investment should be cautious. Regular fixed investment is a simple and easy investment method to guide investors to make long-term investment and average investment cost. However, regular fixed investment cannot avoid the inherent risks of fund investment, cannot guarantee investors to obtain returns, and is not an equivalent financial management method to replace savings.
Investors are requested to carefully read the relevant agreements, business rules and strategy statement before using the fund portfolio service, fully understand the portfolio details and the fund allocation of the portfolio, and confirm that the portfolio meets their own risk tolerance, investment period and investment objectives.
Managed fund investment advisory services are provided by Yinhua Fund Management Co., Ltd. Investment advisory portfolio recommendations may include fund products managed by Yinhua Fund and fund products managed by other fund managers. Investors investing in fund investment and advisory portfolio strategies should follow the principle of “buyer is conceited”. On the basis of a comprehensive understanding of the risk-return characteristics, operational characteristics and appropriate matching opinions of fund investment and advisory portfolio strategies, they should select appropriate fund investment advisors based on their own circumstances. Combining strategies, making investment decisions prudently, and taking investment risks independently. Yinhua Fund does not guarantee the certain profit and minimum return of the fund’s investment portfolio strategy, nor does it make a guarantee of capital. The risk characteristics of a fund’s portfolio strategy are different from those of a single fund product. The past performance of investment advisory services is not indicative of its future performance, and the income created for other investors does not constitute a guarantee of performance. The fund investment consulting business is still in the pilot stage, and there is a risk that the fund investment consulting institution cannot continue to provide services due to the cancellation of the pilot qualification. Funds are risky and investment should be cautious.
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