Original userfield deployment investment2022-10-16
Last Friday, the pharmaceutical sector ushered in a rare violent rise in recent years. According to the paragraph, the difference between the daily limit is only a 10% increase or a 20% increase.
In the early stage, the pharmaceutical index continued to be sluggish, and the market felt that there were logical flaws in the core track from CXO to innovative drugs to medical services. And this surge is a reversal of the combined force of policy easing and extremely depressed sentiment.
Earlier, we also mentioned that the policy eased several times, which brought the marginal improvement of the entire sector. Whether it is the exemption of Beijing Medical Insurance DRG for innovative medical devices or the price reduction of coronary stents compared with spinal centralized procurement. In fact, the pharmaceutical sector only needs to be “not so bad” to perform at the realization stage. After all, whether it is from the public fund position or the trend of the leading stock price on the track, it is basically in a clear state, and the bottom state is obvious. After chatting with my friends, I feel that The long-term is the bottom of the big bear market, and there are opportunities in the future, but the short-term sell-offs are also very miserable, and the confidence is lacking.
Short-term thinking is obvious
One is that the fundamentals are not so bad, but emotional reasons lead to oversold in the early stage, there may be a wave of repairs. The recent trend of spine orthopaedic companies is obvious for this logic verification. On Friday, the leaders of IVD also reacted violently to the easing of the policy on the centralized procurement of biochemical liver function. New Industries and Antu Bio have not raised their eyebrows for a long time. From the fundamentals of business operations, the head effect of these leaders has been in the past few years. It has continued to improve, but the market’s concerns about policies have overshadowed changes in the company’s fundamentals, causing the stock price to fall all the way. In fact, when we analyzed Mindray before, we put it forward, focusing on whether the market share of domestic leaders has increased, and the pattern Is it an improvement, not just a policy price cut.
The other type is demand improvement. Everyone’s interpretation of the medical equipment discount loan policy is actually worried about the industry’s demand in the early stage. Whether it is the shrinking of the market size caused by centralized procurement and price reduction, or the periodical fluctuations in the industry’s prosperity caused by the epidemic disturbance, they are all relevant. The outlook for the sector is unclear. Under the guidance of the subsidized loan policy, the orders allocated to different enterprises are uncertain, but at least it still allows everyone to see the country’s demand for medical care.
The longer-term thinking is to find new industries that are rising and the logical continuation of industries that have already grown. In the future, the evolution of the pharmaceutical sector will also change from “not so bad” to “new good”.
From the perspective of changes in the pharmaceutical industry, there are still some interesting bright spots in the industry, but they have not been listed before or are not hot spots, so everyone turns a blind eye.
In the field of large-scale imaging, we have watched Wandong and Neusoft for so many years, and we think this is a calm industry. However, it was not until after United Imaging went public that everyone discovered that after a round of epidemics, domestic breakthroughs in CT and other large imaging fields have come. A breakthrough in GPS is already on the way. Taking the listing of United Imaging as an opportunity, everyone’s research on the industry has been looking for opportunities for localization of core components from the market structure of the whole machine.
In the field of endoscopy , the 22-year growth rate of Longtou Kaili Medical has nearly doubled, which is also behind the change in the market’s view of the company’s expected low point to continuous performance improvement that exceeds expectations. At the industrial level, the opening of soft mirrors, Aohua, Mindray and Haitai of hard mirrors, all have good development and changes.
In the field of innovative devices, the state has approved hundreds of innovative medical device products through green channels, and these innovative devices have also cultivated a bunch of domestic leaders in the fields of heart valves, neurointervention, and early tumor screening. In the 18A Hong Kong stock market, which is easier to list in Medtech, we have seen many innovative medical device companies, and in the future, the new rules of the Science and Technology Innovation Board will allow us to see more innovative device companies landing in A shares.
In the ophthalmology hospital industry, after more than ten years of listing, Aier Ophthalmology has started to enter the capital market with second-tier ophthalmology companies, so that everyone can see more dimensions of this industry, whether it is from the product side, the client side or the growth path, it is worth studying. . It does not mean that there will be the next AIER, but the medical service sector is no longer a single company such as AIER of ophthalmology + Tongce of oral cavity, but more of a sector effect.
Upstream of life sciences: This broad concept sector is in the first low ebb of the sector, but from the operating status of these companies, it may be another potential sector that may cultivate bull stocks in the future after CXO. After scanning the relevant companies, I found that many companies are in the early stage of growth. Although the revenue and profit scale are not large before listing, the system construction of product research and development, enterprise structure, and sales has been completed. With the help of capital, the future industry trend is upward. And many are not aimed at clinical terminals, the policy is less repressive, and the volatility of market expectations is relatively small. Of course, this broad sector will not have the same industrial background and corporate advantages as CXO. The industry differences and development driving forces of different companies are still very different. The future is likely to be the principle of 28, and a few industries are booming. Those with strong business ability ran out, and most of them gradually became mediocre. Therefore, continuous tracking and screening are required.
Summarize
Therefore, the strong rebound of the pharmaceutical sector last week, let us remember that even in the downturn, the pharmaceutical industry is still an industry with value and opportunities. And looking forward to the future, new fields, new companies, and new logics are emerging one after another. I hope that after a shot of a cardiotonic, everyone can regain their confidence in medicine, and there are still opportunities for medicine in the future!
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