Simply estimate the performance after the merger of Wubai
First, changes in online electricity consumption and operating income
The installed capacity of Baihetan Hydropower Station is 16 million kilowatts, and the designed annual average power generation is 62.443 billion kwh
Wudongde Hydropower Station has an installed capacity of 10.2 million kilowatts and a designed multi-year average power generation of 38.91 billion kilowatt-hours
The two power stations purchased in Wubai have an average annual increase of 101.3 billion kwh of power generation, and an increase of 57% in installed capacity
The joint commissioning of the six warehouses can increase 6-7 billion kwh. After the acquisition of Wubai, the average annual increase in power generation is 107.3-108.3 billion kwh
Calculated based on the average on-grid electricity price of 0.25 yuan, the operating income will increase by 26.825 billion to 27.075 billion yuan, and the income will increase by about 48%.
2. Changes in operating costs
The operating cost of CYPC mainly has two aspects, one is depreciation and the other is financial fees
a. Depreciation
Yangtze Power uses the average life method for depreciation, let’s look at Wubai’s fixed assets
As of June 30, 2022, the original book value of Wubai’s fixed assets is 175.1 billion, plus 66.1 billion of construction in progress, the total of the two items is 241.2 billion
It is also noted in the transaction report that the Baihetan hydropower station is expected to invest 52.069 billion in the future. If this is the case, after all the projects are transferred to fixed assets, the original value of Wubai’s fixed assets will reach an astonishing 293.3 billion. An investment of about 30 billion is enough. Let’s calculate a range. The original value of Wubai’s fixed assets is about 271.2-293.3 billion
It can be seen that as of June 30, 2022, among Yunchuan’s 175.1 billion fixed assets, 133.45 billion are water-retaining buildings, and the depreciation period of water-retaining buildings is generally longer, about 40-60 years, and other assets Less, and the assets that will be transferred to fixed assets in the future are mostly machinery and equipment, housing buildings, electronic equipment, etc., and the depreciation period is relatively short, so the depreciation data in 2021 and 2022 cannot be used to compare the same period. Analyze the specific situation of the asset
I think it can be calculated according to the depreciation rate of JCET at about 3.3%. The annual depreciation is about 8.9 billion to 9.7 billion, and the median value is 9.3 billion.
b. Fiscal fees
It can be seen that in the first half of 2022, Wudongde’s on-grid electricity will be 15.179 billion kwh, and Baihetan will be 13.753 billion kwh, totaling 28.932 billion kwh.
In the first half of 2022, the financial fee is 337 million, and the average financial fee per kilowatt-hour is 0.0116. I don’t understand this financial fee very well, and it is likely to be undercounted. The financial fees of the other four power stations of Changdian Electric Power Co., Ltd. are about 0.0116 per kilowatt-hour. Electricity 3 cents
Then if the power generation reaches 101.3 billion kWh, the financial fee is 1.175 billion.
The total operating cost of Changdian is 10.5 billion
Third. Business tax and surcharges
The business tax is magnified synchronously according to the operating income, which is about 1.8 billion, an increase of about 600 million
Fourth. Sales, management, research and development expenses
According to the data of Yunchuan Company, the sales cost is 15 million, the management cost is 350 million, and there is no research and development cost, the total increase is 365 million
Fifth. Financial costs
a. Interest expenses of Yunchuan Company
The non-current liabilities due within one year are 23.9 billion, and the long-term loans are 143.9 billion, totaling 167.8 billion. We will continue to invest in the future, and we will add another 30 billion, which is about 200 billion. Let’s calculate it according to 200 billion. The interest rate may be higher now , future financial replacement, according to the interest rate of 3.5%, the annual interest expense of about 7.5 billion
b. The loan interest required for the purchase of JCET
In order to acquire Wubai, 16.1 billion was paid for issuing shares, 16.1 billion was paid for private placement of shares, and 10 billion of self-owned funds. There is still a gap of about 40 billion in cash. According to the interest rate of 3.5%, the annual interest is about 1.4 billion.
A total of 8.9 billion new interest expenses per year
Sixth. Income tax
2022 is exempt from income tax, 2023-2025 is levied at 7.5%, and 2026 is levied at a rate of 15%. Here we calculate at a rate of 15%.
Seventh. Estimated increase in profit
The increased operating income is calculated on the basis of 27 billion. After deducting 10.5 billion in operating costs, 600 million in business taxes, 3.65 in sales management R&D expenses, 8.9 billion in interest expenses, and 15% income tax, the estimated increased profit is 5.6 billion
In the past 5 years, the average income of JCET is 23.8 billion, and if 5.6 billion is added, the combined income of 29.4 billion
Eighth. Share increase
At present, the total share capital is 227.42 shares. If the price of shares issued by raising supporting funds is 20 yuan and 16.096 billion is raised, 805 million shares need to be issued, and the 921 million shares of China Three Gorges Group, Yunneng Investment, and Sichuan Energy Investment are added. Issued 1.726 billion shares, after the transaction is completed, the total share capital will be about 24.5 billion shares
Eighth, average earnings per share
After the transaction is completed, the consolidated income attributable to the parent is 29.4 billion, and the total share capital is 24.5 billion. The average earnings per share is 1.2 yuan. According to the 70% dividend rate, it is about 0.84 yuan. According to the current price of 21 yuan, the pe is 17.5 yuan. about times
Remind everyone that after the merger with Wubai, Changdian has relatively high debts. After the dividend promise expires in 2025, the dividend rate may be reduced to repay the debt
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