The photovoltaic industry’s two-year high-silicon material cycle and high capital expenditure cycle have entered an inflection point.
The price upward cycle and capital expenditure cycle in the past two years have caused the main contradiction in the industry to focus on the supply chain strategy. Whoever gets the short-term resources will enjoy the dividends, and whoever hoards products and long-term operations will enjoy the price difference.
High-priced silicon materials have reduced the weight of non-silicon costs in the cost structure of silicon wafers from 55% to about 10%, and the direction of change in the battery and module links is the same. Obviously, the weight of non-silicon’s leading advantages has been diluted, and the role of silicon cost-related technologies such as thinning, thinning, and the use of recycled materials for impurities has become prominent. Disadvantages are narrowed to accelerate activation.
With the adherence to the strategy of high turnover and low inventory to survive the price increase cycle, Zhonghuan strategically launched the first shot of price reduction, and the industry quickly entered the destocking cycle. During the rapid price reduction period, silicon wafers and the following links were worried about inventory impairment and further price reduction after receiving goods. Many of them chose to wait and see because of the impairment, resulting in light transactions and a rapid drop in the price of the industrial chain.
Different from the price increase cycle, the sweet pastry with a long operation cycle has become a hot potato, and the raw materials may experience depreciation every day from the arrival of the market to the shipment of the finished product. As the price of silicon materials quickly returns to the nature of industrial products, the proportion of silicon cost in the product cost structure will soon return to a low level. In fact, silicon wafers return to around 50%, and battery components are even lower.
Subsequently, starting in 23 years, the production efficiency improvement brought by the larger single-furnace output of silicon wafer end crystals, the advantage of the number of wafers per kilogram brought by the improvement of slicing yield rate, and the higher quality silicon wafers drive the battery yield rate. The increase of the flux effect brought by the large size reduces the production cost, the low risk of impairment caused by the high operation and fast turnover capacity, the impact of the reduction of the amount of silver and other precious metals on the cost of the battery, the cost performance of the high-density packaging brought by the shingling technology, Non-silicon factors such as the sensitivity of cell efficiency improvement to the impact on return on investment will highlight their importance as the weight of non-silicon factors increases. However, although the effects of silicon-containing factors such as thinning and thinning are still there, there will be a certain degree of passivation.
In any case, saying goodbye to silicon as king is a major opportunity for the further healthy development of the industry. The return of silicon material prices is a major positive for the outbreak of photovoltaic demand.
At this time, we should talk less about profit interception (especially many brokerages still look at an industry with rapid technological changes from the perspective of mutual game), and talk more about value creation, because profits never come from interception, but your differentiation The so-called profits created by competitive advantages and without barriers to differentiation will surely be a moon in the water and a flower in the mirror.
At this time, pay less attention to the short-term order vacuum, because these are the only way for more orders to explode in the future. Give less weight to short-term factors and more weight to long-term fundamental factors, because it is the longer-term and more fundamental factors that really make you money and determine the value of a company.
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