1. The basic situation of foreign trade in May 2022
(1) General situation of import and export
According to customs statistics, from January to May 2022, my country’s total foreign trade import and export volume was 2,514.68 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. Among them, the export was 1,402.57 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%; the import was 1,112.11 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, and the trade balance was 290.46 billion US dollars. In May, the total import and export volume of my country’s foreign trade was 537.74 billion US dollars, an increase of 11.1% year-on-year, a month-on-month increase of 8.4%, and an increase of 10.1% compared with the previous month. Among them, exports were 308.24 billion US dollars, an increase of 16.9% year-on-year, a month-on-month increase of 12.6%, an increase of 13.5 percentage points from the previous month; imports were 229.49 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, a month-on-month increase of 3.1%, an increase of 5.9 percentage points from the previous month Percentage; trade balance of $78.75 billion. It can also be seen from Figures 1 to 3 that compared with April, my country’s imports and exports showed an increasing trend in May. In general, my country’s foreign trade situation has picked up, and the total import and export volume has shown a steady growth trend.
Calculated in RMB, my country’s total import and export volume from January to May 2022 was RMB 16,037.36 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%. Among them, exports were 8,943.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%; imports were 7,093.70 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%; trade surplus was 1,849.95 billion yuan. In the month of May, my country’s total import and export volume was 3.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6% and a month-on-month increase of 9.2%. Among them, exports were 1.98 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.3% and a month-on-month increase of 13.4%; imports were 1.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8% and a month-on-month increase of 4.0%; the trade surplus was 502.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.9%.
In terms of trade methods, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, from January to May 2022, the total import and export volume of my country’s general trade was 10270.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, accounting for 64.0% of the total import and export volume. Among them, exports were 5,713.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%; imports were 4,557.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%.
(2) Product structure characteristics of import and export
First, in terms of exports, from January to May 2022, the export value of most major products in my country will continue to maintain a medium-to-high speed growth trend, but the growth rate of export value of some products has begun to decline, and the export volume of many products has declined. situation. In May, my country’s export situation recovered, and the export value of most major products increased month-on-month (see Tables 1 and 2). Specifically:
First, the export of mechanical and electrical products continued to maintain a moderate growth rate. Although some of the mechanical and electrical products had a negative year-on-year growth, they rose month-on-month. From January to May, the total export value of my country’s mechanical and electrical products was 5,111.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, accounting for 57.2% of exports. In May, the export value of mechanical and electrical products increased by 9.4% month-on-month. Among them, the export value of general mechanical equipment, integrated circuits, and automobiles (including chassis) has a higher growth rate, and the month-on-month growth rate is higher; while the export value of other mechanical and electrical products has a low growth rate or negative growth, but most products have a higher month-on-month growth rate. . The export value of general machinery and equipment was 145.94 billion yuan, an increase of 10.7%, a month-on-month increase of 11.5%; the integrated circuit export value was 406.50 billion yuan, an increase of 15.4%, a month-on-month increase of 12.1%; the automobile (including chassis) export value was 119.05 billion yuan, an increase of 57.6% %, a month-on-month increase of 46.9%. The automatic data processing equipment increased by 1.7%, the growth rate was slow, but there was downward pressure on the growth rate, and the month-on-month decrease of 2.5%. It is worth noting that although the export growth rate of audio and video equipment and its parts and lamps, lighting devices and their parts all showed a downward trend, the downward trend has a certain slowing trend. Audio and video equipment and its parts had a negative growth of 8.0%, but a month-on-month increase of 0.2%; lamps, lighting devices and their parts had a negative growth of 0.6%, but a month-on-month increase of 6.1%; medical instruments and equipment had a negative growth of 2.9%, but the month-on-month increase 7.8%. The negative growth of ships was 14.5%, but the month-on-month increase was 23.5%. In addition, although the export volume of mobile phones continued to drop by 11.0%, the export value increased by 2.3%; while the export volume of household appliances decreased by 6.9%, the export value decreased by 7.7%, and the month-on-month decrease of 3.0%. Second, the high-tech products grew steadily on the whole. Its total export value reached 2,473.71 billion yuan, an increase of 5.4%, accounting for 27.7% of exports, a month-on-month increase of 5.9%. Third, the export value and export value of some labor-intensive products (including luggage, shoes, toys, etc.) have maintained a relatively high growth rate, and the growth rate has an upward trend. Among them, the export value of luggage and similar containers, shoes and toys has a high growth rate, and the growth rate has an obvious upward trend. The export volume of bags and similar containers increased by 30.3%, the export value increased by 30.6%, and the export value reached 81.07 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 26.0%; the export value of shoes and boots was 135.44 billion yuan, an increase of 27.0%, and the export volume increased by 9.8%, and the month-on-month increase was 135.44 billion yuan. A substantial increase of 35.3%; the export value of toys was 106.51 billion yuan, an increase of 19.9%, and a month-on-month increase of 17.8%. The export value of clothing and clothing accessories increased by 8.1%, and increased by 34.8% month-on-month in the same month; although the export value of furniture and its parts decreased by 0.3%, it increased by 5.1% month-on-month. The export value of ceramic products increased by 6.6%, and the month-on-month increase of 18.5%, but the export volume decreased by 5.7%. Fourth, benefiting from demand and price factors, the export volume and value of rare earth, unwrought aluminum and aluminum products have grown rapidly. Among them, the export volume of rare earth increased by 10.9%, and the export value increased by 89.9%, which was a month-on-month increase of 11.4%; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased by 34.2%, and the export value increased by 71.4%. Other steel-related products also grew faster. Although the export volume of steel dropped by 16.2%, the export value increased by 25.3%, and the month-on-month increase of 51.1%.
Second, in terms of imports, my country’s agricultural product imports from January to May 2022 will still maintain overall growth, but the import value of many other products has experienced negative growth, and the export volume of many products has dropped significantly. In May, the import volume and value of agricultural products increased month-on-month (see Tables 3 and 4). Specifically:
First, the import value of agricultural products reached 600.68 billion yuan, the growth rate rose to 5.1%, accounting for 8.5% of imports, and the month-on-month growth rate was 18.2%. Among them, the import volume and import value of dried and fresh melons, fruits and nuts maintained a growth trend, and the growth trend was obvious. The import volume increased by 13.0%, the import value increased by 3.3%, and the month-on-month increase by 54.1%; meat (including offal), edible vegetable oil The import volume and import value of China continued to decline significantly, but the decline slowed down; the import volume of meat fell by 34.2%, and the import value fell by 20.6%, but the month-on-month increase of 9.2%; the import volume of edible vegetable oil fell by 65.9%, and the import value fell by 46.4% , but the month-on-month increase of 26.1%. Although the import volume of grain, especially soybeans, has declined, the import value has continued to increase, and the growth rate has become an upward trend; the grain import volume decreased by 0.2%, but the import value increased by 22.5%, and the month-on-month increase of 20.0%; soybean import volume It fell by 0.4%, but the import value increased by 22.8%, and the month-on-month increase of 22.0%. This reflects that although the growth of food imports has slowed down, the value of imports is still high due to rising prices.
Second, the import value of resources and energy products generally rose by a large margin, and the upward trend was obvious, but the import volume of most subdivided products declined. Among them, the import value of copper ore and its concentrate reached 166.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, and the month-on-month increase of 15.2%, showing an obvious upward trend; the import value of iron ore and its concentrate reached 352.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.8% , but the month-on-month increase of 11.8%, the downward trend has slowed down; the import value of coal and lignite reached 97.70 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.5%, but the month-on-month decrease of 7.3%, and the import volume fell by 13.6%; crude oil imports reached 967.18 billion yuan Yuan, an increase of 53.0% year-on-year, a month-on-month increase of 3.3%, and a slight decrease of 1.7% in import volume; the import value of refined oil reached 51.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.5%, a significant month-on-month increase of 37.8%, while the import volume fell by 3.8%; natural gas imports The amount reached 171.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.5%, a significant month-on-month increase of 23.9%, but the import volume fell by 9.3%.
Third, the overall growth rate of electromechanical products declined, except for integrated circuits and automobiles (including chassis), but the growth trends of subdivided products were different. The total import value of mechanical and electrical products was 2,801.29 billion yuan, a negative growth of 2.3%, and a month-on-month decrease of 2.6%, accounting for 39.5% of imports. Among them, the export value of integrated circuits increased by 7.1%, but decreased by 6.3% month-on-month, and the growth trend slowed down; the export value of automobiles (including chassis) increased by 5.7%, down 22.7% month-on-month, and the growth trend slowed down. Automatic data processing equipment and its parts decreased by 0.2%, but increased by 5.7% month-on-month, and the downward trend slowed down; the export value of auto parts decreased by 18.9% year-on-year, but increased by 2.3% month-on-month, and the downward trend slowed down; the export value of medical instruments and equipment It fell by 6.5%, but the month-on-month increase was 25.5%, and the downward trend was obviously slowed down. The import value of high-tech products reached 2,026.32 billion yuan, accounting for 28.6% of imports, a negative growth of 0.6%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, with a steady growth.
Fourth, the import volume of other products such as fertilizers has declined, but the import value has still increased significantly. However, the downward pressure on the growth trend is relatively large. The import volume of fertilizers decreased by 16.0%, but the import value increased by 51.6% year-on-year, and decreased by 7.7% month-on-month; the import volume of pulp imports decreased by 6.7%, but increased by 6.2% year-on-year, and the month-on-month increase of 0.9%.
(3) Regional structural characteristics of import and export
From the perspective of the structure of import and export regions (see Table 5 for details), from January to May 2022, my country’s top five trading partners are ASEAN, the European Union, the United States, South Korea, and Japan, and the total import and export volume to the above trading partners is 23,669.6 and 22,039.7 respectively. , 19990.2, 970.71, 936.32 billion yuan. ASEAN is my country’s largest trading partner, accounting for 14.8% of my country’s imports and exports. Among them, the export value to ASEAN was 1,348.94 billion yuan, an increase of 12.0%, accounting for 15.1% of the export; the import value was 1,018.02 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4%, accounting for 14.4% of the import. my country’s exports to ASEAN countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines have grown at a very high rate. The EU is my country’s second largest trading partner, accounting for 13.7% of my country’s total imports and exports. Among them, the export value to the EU was 1,447.39 billion yuan, an increase of 17.4%, accounting for 16.2% of the export; the import value was 756.58 billion yuan, and the import growth rate decreased by 8.5%, accounting for 10.7% of the import. The United States is my country’s third largest trading partner, accounting for 12.5% of my country’s imports and exports, but in terms of export value, the United States is still my country’s largest exporter. Among them, the export value to the United States was 1,509.75 billion yuan, an increase of 12.9%, accounting for 16.9% of the export; the import value was 489.27 billion yuan, an increase of 2.1%, accounting for 6.9% of the import. In addition, the growth rate of my country’s exports to India, Canada, Australia, Brazil and other economies is relatively high, generally exceeding 18%.
2. Outlook of my country’s foreign trade situation in the second half of 2022
(1) Overall outlook on foreign trade trends in the second half of 2022
Overall, my country’s foreign trade performance was good from January to May, but the growth rate of imports and exports showed a downward trend, and the downward trend of imports was particularly obvious. In May, as the domestic epidemic gradually eased, the progress of resumption of work and production of enterprises accelerated, the manufacturing purchasing manager index showed an obvious upward trend, the import and export volume and value showed a clear month-on-month rebound, and the new export order index and import index both rebounded significantly. (See Figure 4 below). If the epidemic can be more effectively controlled in June and the economy can further return to a normal track, imports and exports are expected to improve completely in the second half of the year. However, the recovery of the domestic economy requires a process. At present, the growth rate of major economic indicators is still at a low level, and the foundation for recovery needs to be consolidated. In addition, the partial rupture of the industrial chain and supply chain caused by the epidemic control policy, the adverse impact on business confidence, and the impact on foreign buyers may continue for some time, and the recovery of the economy and foreign trade may take some time. In particular, with the complete relaxation of epidemic control measures in other countries and the recovery of production capacity, many foreign orders may be transferred abroad, and the export share may slowly decline, which will have a long-term impact on my country’s exports. And some of the top foreign-funded enterprises represented by Apple are transferring production capacity outward. Therefore, the foreign trade situation in the second half of 2022 is still relatively severe, and the task of stabilizing foreign trade is still relatively heavy.
(2) Positive factors for my country’s foreign trade exports in the second half of 2022
First, the current round of the epidemic has basically been effectively controlled, and the domestic economy has begun to stabilize and rebound. The epidemic situation in major cities such as Shanghai and Beijing has been basically brought under control, the epidemic control policy has been gradually loosened, the production and living order has gradually been restored, domestic and foreign logistics have begun to flow smoothly, the resumption of work and production of enterprises has been promoted in an orderly manner, and the industrial service industry has rebounded. In particular, the logistics of foreign trade has gradually improved, the production of foreign trade enterprises has recovered well, the backlog of foreign trade orders in the early stage has begun to be released, and the growth rate of imports and exports of goods has begun to pick up.
Second, there is a high probability that the epidemic will be completely and effectively controlled after June, and the epidemic prevention and control policies are expected to be more scientific and reasonable, which will be conducive to the recovery of foreign trade activities in the second half of the year. In response to the adverse impact of epidemic prevention and control on foreign trade enterprises, the Chinese government has realized the seriousness of the problem and has taken active actions. A series of measures have been taken to help affected enterprises, including foreign-funded enterprises, to relieve their difficulties, make every effort to maintain the stability and smoothness of the foreign trade industry chain and supply chain, and help foreign trade enterprises to resume work and production. With the introduction of this series of measures, the difficulties of foreign trade enterprises will be gradually eased.
Third, my country has recently launched a series of policies to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, which will play a certain role in stabilizing exports. Recently, the central government and local governments have issued a series of preferential policies for exports, such as large-scale tax reduction and fee reduction, strengthening export credit support, encouraging financial institutions to provide low-cost exchange rate hedging services, speeding up the progress of export tax rebates, and helping enterprises stabilize orders and production. In response to the overseas transfer of foreign-funded enterprises, a series of measures will also be introduced to encourage enterprises to resume work and production as soon as possible and provide various concessions. As these policies come into play, they will have a stabilizing effect on foreign trade.
Fourth, the United States is considering exempting or reducing tariffs on some Chinese products. my country can actively strive for it and try its best to maintain the growth of exports to the United States. Inflation in the United States is at its highest level in more than 40 years, and facing pressure to cancel some tariffs on Chinese products, U.S. government officials have released relevant information many times with strong desire. Since the United States is still my country’s largest exporter, the tariff reductions and exemptions by the United States on some Chinese goods will have a certain promotion effect on my country’s exports to the United States. This will also form a certain positive propaganda effect on other countries, which is one of the positive factors for my country’s export.
Fifth, the full implementation of the RCEP agreement will bring opportunities for trade between my country and ASEAN and other countries, making the industrial chain and supply chain between China and the Asian region more closely linked. At present, the number of RCEP’s 15 signatory member states has reached 13 effective members. After RCEP came into effect, the ratio of immediate zero-tariff ratio between China and ASEAN, Australia and New Zealand exceeded 65%, the ratio of immediate zero-tariff ratio between China and South Korea reached 39% and 50%, and the ratio of immediate zero-tariff ratio between China and Japan reached 25% and 57%. RCEP reduces tariffs and non-tariff barriers to intra-regional trade, and will deepen cooperation in regional industrial chains, supply chains, and value chains, and promote intra-regional trade in intermediate goods. In addition, my country is also accelerating the study of joining CPTPP and DEPA (Digital Economic Partnership Agreement). If it goes well, it will further release the export potential of my country’s digital trade and service trade, and promote the continued growth of exports.
Sixth, new trade forms such as cross-border e-commerce will play an important supporting role in foreign trade. At present, my country’s cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones have reached 132, basically covering the whole country, which helps to maintain the stability and quality of foreign trade. In 2021, the import and export of cross-border e-commerce will be 1.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 15%. In the first quarter of this year, it continued to grow, reaching 434.5 billion yuan. In addition, the number of overseas warehouses of cross-border e-commerce in my country has exceeded 2,000, with an area of more than 16 million square meters, which will play an important and positive role in the development of foreign trade. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, my country’s foreign trade enterprises have been accelerating the development of cross-border e-commerce trade and seeking new trade opportunities, and their comparative advantages have become more obvious.
(3) Prospects for import trends in the second half of 2022
From the data in May, the month-on-month growth trend of imports is at a low level, which is significantly lower than the recovery speed of exports, reflecting that both production-driven and consumption-driven import demand are facing greater obstacles.
On the one hand, affected by the current epidemic, my country’s processing trade is currently greatly affected, and the import of intermediate goods by enterprises is still at a low level. However, if the epidemic situation completely improves after June, the import growth rate is expected to gradually increase. As the epidemic eases, imports are expected to continue to maintain a medium-to-high growth rate in the third quarter. China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 49.6 in May from 47.4 in April, reflecting that companies’ production activities began to improve. Moreover, the import index rose to 45.1 in May from 42.9 in April, and may continue to rise in June.
On the other hand, the negative impact of the epidemic on employment may last for a period of time, the unemployment rate may remain high in the second half of the year, and it will be more difficult for people to increase their income, which will reduce domestic consumer demand and create greater pressure on imports. With the improvement of people’s disposable income, people’s demand for imported food, clothing, jewelry, tobacco and alcohol, electronic products and other products continues to rise. However, in the face of uncertainty caused by the epidemic and concerns about future income declines, consumers may be more motivated to save on a precautionary basis, and personal consumption may be more cautious, which will negatively affect consumer goods imports. Moreover, the employment pressure in the second half of this year may still be relatively large, people’s income may face the risk of further decline, and the possibility of large-scale growth of domestic consumer demand is not high. (references omitted)
Author: Liu Hongkui, Associate Researcher, Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
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