In the past few days, the rise of white chicken has been gratifying, but the rise and fall of chicken stocks are seriously divided. Many people feel very confused. Shengnong has risen so well, and Xiantan shares have risen so weakly. What is the reason for such a big difference in the section? I want to analyze and explain from the perspective of industry chain and supply and demand.
There are four main mainland listings in the white chicken section, Shengnong, Yisheng, Minhe and Xiantan. The industrial chain from upstream to downstream is mainly ancestors, parents, commodity and chicken. In a simple logic diagram, Shengnong can be summarized as follows: In the whole industry chain, Yisheng mainly produces parental generation, Minhe mainly produces commodity generation, and Xiantan mainly produces chicken.
The industry chain is clear, the next supply side is bird flu, the external bird flu affects the introduction of ancestors, and the internal bird flu affects the entire industry chain; the demand side is just consumption, and the most direct indicator is the price of pigs, the price of pigs Increased the chicken substitution effect.
The logic of its impact on the rise and fall of chicken stocks is as follows:
1. Supply-side dominance
At present, the external bird flu is serious, and the introduction of ancestors is blocked. It is expected that the upstream will be affected first, and then it will be transmitted to the parents, commercial generations, and chicken. That is to say, the benefits of external avian flu will be transmitted from upstream to downstream, and the upstream will be the first to benefit. , Downstream Finally, this process is the current stage, Shengnong> Yisheng> Minhe> Xiantan.
2. Demand-side dominance
When the price of pork rises sharply, the chicken substitution effect is obvious. At this time, breeding and selling chickens will benefit the most, and the downstream will increase the best. If the high pig price can be maintained for a long time, the chicken price increase will be transmitted to the upstream. Stocks began to follow suit. This process is the reflection of the stock price from April to September. During the period, the high and low spreads increased by high and low Shengnong > Xiantan > Minhe > Yisheng.
3. Co-conductance between supply and demand
During the National Day, while pork prices skyrocketed, public opinion on the most serious bird flu in European and American history broke out. Under the condition of co-fermentation of demand and supply, the white chicken stock section resonated and rose hand in hand, with no distinction between upstream and downstream.
In addition, there is another important factor, that is, the market trend, the overall bull market or bear market, will affect the overall valuation or the range of fluctuations.
To put it simply, to judge the reasons for the differentiation of individual stocks of white chicken stocks, we only need to look at whether it is upstream, or downstream, or both.
$ Shengnong Development (SZ002299)$ $ Minhe Shares (SZ002234)$ $ Yisheng Shares (SZ002458)$
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