Standing at the end of the Lunar New Year and the beginning of the new year, looking back on 2022, it is an extraordinary year and the most difficult year since masks.
1. Market review in 2022
Over the past year, internationally, we have experienced the Russo-Ukraine war, the energy crisis, global inflation, and the appreciation of the dollar.
This year, the domestic economy has become more difficult, with continuous blockades in various places, and logistics and people flow blocked. Housing prices continued to fall, projects were unfinished, and mortgage payments were cut off. Consumption shrinks, deflation, and household deposits have increased by a record 17.84 trillion. China’s population has officially entered the era of negative growth, a little earlier than expected.
This year, the capital market has seen both stocks and debts, and A-shares have continued to plummet, and they have repeatedly staged 3,000-point defense battles. In November, bank fixed-income wealth management broke the net on a large scale. The CSI 300 fell 21.63% for the year, and the partial stock fund index also closed down 21.74%. Only coal and oil and gas resources performed well.
2. Personal real account inventory
1. Pension account
In order to ensure the quality of life after retirement, I opened a pension investment account in June 2022. I plan to invest a certain amount of principal every month and make long-term investment in the form of fixed fund investment. 10%, the investment time is 25 years, until the age of 60, no withdrawal in the middle.
In 2022, the average monthly investment is 6,000 yuan, and the actual cumulative amount is 44,800 yuan. At the end of the year, the market value is 43,437 yuan, the floating loss is 1,363 yuan, and the yield is -3%, outperforming the market.
In terms of industry funds, new energy, medical, and consumer themed funds are allocated, which are long-term standard allocations. I selected the star fund managers among the track fund managers, and invested in the funds of Yao Zhipeng, Zhao Bei and Zhang Kun respectively.
For index funds, I configured Shuangchuang 50 and Hang Seng Technology.
The investment in Shuangchuang 50 is based on the long-term optimism about the growth of the domestic technology industry, and the second is that the valuation is cheap after the oversold.
Investing in Hang Seng Technology is a timing investment, which started in September 2022. First, it is oversold, falling by nearly 70% from a high level, which is very cheap. Second, domestic governance of platforms has basically ended, and policies have gradually begun to shift.
The picture below is the K-line chart of Hang Seng Technology starting from September. This is a perfect smile curve with a return of 14%. Although the fixed investment cannot buy the lowest point, it can get a good return steadily. This is the benefit of the fixed investment, and you can invest slowly without rushing.
In addition, I also allocated a balanced growth fund. I chose to invest in E Fund’s Chen Hao, who has 10 years of experience in the industry and an annualized return of 16%, which is very good.
2. Family Wealth Appreciation Account
This account manages funds that have not been used by the family for more than two years. With reference to market valuation and sentiment, it makes fuzzy timing, rotates stocks and bonds, and builds positions in batches. The investment goal is to surpass the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index income.
The account will start investing in November 2021, with a total investment of 160,000 principal. By the end of 2022, the total market value of the account will be 138,910 yuan, the accumulated loss will be 21,090 yuan, the yield rate will be -13%, and it will outperform the target index by 8% .
At the beginning of 2022, this account is dominated by partial debt funds. After penetrating through positions, bonds accounted for more than 70%, and stocks accounted for a lower proportion. The main positions are mixed bond funds and convertible bond funds, and a small amount of CSI 300 and CSI 500 index funds are allocated.
In view of the more optimistic judgment on the equity market after a long period of decline, I began to gradually reduce the holdings of partial debt funds in September. By the end of February, the goal was to increase the holdings of stock funds to about 70%.
The transferred positions were bought in batches of Hang Seng Technology, Shuangchuang 50 and medical themed funds. At present, bonds account for 55%, stocks account for 40%, and money market funds account for 5%.
When the two accounts are combined, the annual rate of return in 2022 is -11%.
3. Market outlook in 2023
1. Macroeconomic aspects
Compared with last year, in the context of economic recovery and policy easing, my view of 2023 is of course more optimistic, but we need to be moderately cautious in optimism.
Reasons for optimism: last year’s base was low, and masks were released. As the first year after the 20th National Congress, the new leadership should introduce more powerful economic support policies. The GDP growth rate should not be low year-on-year. Brokers generally predict More than 5%.
However, from the analysis of the three main factors of GDP growth, consumption can make more contributions, and exports are unlikely to make a greater contribution under the expectation of recession in Europe and the United States. Investment is mainly concentrated in infrastructure, real estate and manufacturing, which depends on policies, markets and confidence.
The economy has been sluggish for many years, and it is not easy to get out of the recession.
First, people’s expectations of housing prices will not change easily if housing is not for speculation. The contribution of real estate to GDP is an unknown variable.
Second, under the policy support, if the CPI rebounds too high in the second half of the year, the stimulus policy will be weakened.
The third is that the conflict between my country and the United States is still an important factor affecting the development of our country. This problem will exist for a long time, and we need to be cautious.
2. Market cycle
Investment depends on the cycle, and the cycle is of great use.
Since last year, China’s economy has been sluggish, inflation has fallen, and stocks have fallen. These are typical recession performances.
However, starting in November, the bond market began to turn around, coupled with the loosening of masks, and the gradual improvement of macro data, it is certain that we are now in a critical period of transition from recession to recovery. After all, there is no winter that will not pass.
Now the domestic and foreign economic cycles are dislocated. The U.S. economy is growing strongly, with high CPI and bright employment data. The U.S. economy is clearly in the “overheating period” cycle. Under the continuous interest rate hikes, the U.S. is likely to enter a cyclical recession in 2023.
From the analysis of Merrill Lynch clock theory, in the domestic market on the eve of recovery, the income of major assets is stocks>>bonds>>cash>>commodities. As for the U.S. market, if it falls into a recession, bonds will be king, followed by cash, stocks will be weak, and commodities will plummet.
The market has never been a simple linear reasoning, and this configuration idea can only be used as a reference.
4. Broad base and industry track
Regardless of the broad-based index or the industry track, the valuation is still relatively low, and there is a certain cost-effectiveness of investment. It is a good way to continue to invest or build positions in batches, but be careful not to chase high.
1. In terms of broad-based index
Focus on Shuangchuang 50 and Hang Seng Technology, and moderately allocate CSI 300 and CSI 500 enhanced index funds.
The weekly line of the China Securities Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 Index shows that the market is clearly in the bottom area.
The weekly chart of Hang Seng Technology is as follows. The rebound from the bottom has exceeded 40%, but it has only stepped out of the downward trend line and is still in the bottom area.
2. Industry track
Regardless of the market trend every year, A-shares will have a structural market, and only by betting on the right track can they have excess returns. For example, funds with high coal content in 2022 will perform well.
So what about this year? This question is not easy to answer.
Inferred directly from logic, coupled with personal preferences, I will continue to invest in consumption, medicine, and new energy.
Consumption: Under the Sino-US game, anti-globalization and foreign recession expectations, boosting China’s economy mainly depends on domestic consumption. This is such a simple logic. Therefore, although the valuation is not too low, it still needs to be configured.
Medicine: First, from February 2021 to the present, after falling for nearly 2 years, the valuation percentile in the past 10 years is 14%, which is relatively underestimated. The second is that in the face of the rapid aging of our country, there will be a huge demand for medicine in the future, but we need to pay attention to the adverse effects of centralized medicine procurement.
New energy: This is a long-term national policy. In this energy revolution, it is an important strategic fulcrum for China to return to the number one in the world. Under the dual carbon commitment, as long as the price falls, it is a good opportunity for allocation.
In addition, military industry, technology, gold and the US stock index in the second half of the year may all have staged investment opportunities this year, and a pullback is a buying opportunity.
5. How to invest in a family account
In the domestic market, if the rate of return wants to significantly outperform the market, it needs effective timing + betting on the right track , both of which are difficult. The market is unpredictable, but it can be dealt with. So make the following plans first:
1. Pension account
The monthly surplus wages will continue to be invested in the pension account for regular investment, combined with valuation, location, and emotions, stop profit and not stop loss.
The fixed investment fund remains unchanged, and military industry and technology are added in due course.
2. Family Wealth Appreciation Account
The first is to continue to reduce the proportion of partial debt fund investment, and the target is lowered to 30%. The second is to continue to buy Shuangchuang 50, Hang Seng Technology, and medical themed funds in batches. The third is to increase positions in military industry funds at an appropriate time.
Six, write at the end
Make a decision before acting, know what to stop and gain something, persist in investing, and change your life.
In 2023, the market as a whole is optimistic, but there will definitely be repetitions, so don’t chase higher.
Investment is a process of pursuing a fuzzy correctness, which requires us to lower our expectations, implement discipline, resist temptation, eliminate noise, persist for a long time, and slowly become rich.
Investment is a marathon, a lifetime of practice. Don’t worry about the gains and losses of one year or two years. Once you have identified the general direction, you will then determine your asset portfolio and investment strategy, and then implement it in a planned way. how to buy? What is the proportion of holdings? What conditions to sell? Believe in the power of persistence.
Today is the first day of the Lunar New Year of the Rabbit, and I sincerely wish a happy new year.
The above is my simple judgment for this year. Most of it may be wrong. Please read carefully and treat it rationally. It does not constitute investment advice. Operate accordingly at your own risk.
#2022投资摘要# @雪球创作者中心@今日话题@雪球基金@ETF星迷官
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