In recent years, Moutai has undoubtedly resisted the banner of value investment. Many of the banners of value investment in the past have fallen. Among them are Ping An, Vanke, Gree Electric and so on. Fortunately, Maotai is still there. In recent years, the reason why many value investment big Vs have achieved good performance is mainly because of the deployment of Maotai. And those who didn’t buy Moutai, often have a bad-looking account.
If at this time, I ask this question: As a value investor, is Maotai or CCB more valuable at this stage? Which is more worthy of our long-term holding? I guess more people will choose Moutai.
CCB is really sorry for the holders. Let’s look at a data:
At the end of December 2018, the share price of CCB was 5.20 yuan (before resumption), and Maotai was 563 yuan. On November 6, 2022, CCB’s share price was 5.29 yuan, and Maotai’s share price was 1,516 yuan. In five years, CCB’s share price has basically remained unchanged, while Moutai has risen nearly 200%. If at the end of 2018, different investors chose CCB and Maotai, it would be a double world.
One investor made a choice, his name is Dong Baozhen. In 2017, Maotai was sold and the bank was bought. He thinks bank stocks are cheaper than Moutai. I don’t know exactly what bank he bought into. Suppose he bought CCB. Such an operation made him fall from the cloud to hell. When holding Moutai, his fund net worth was as high as 12, and in the past five years, he has basically made no money.
Let’s put aside the fact that Dong Baozhen didn’t make money when he changed from Maotai to the bank. Just to see if Dong Baozhen’s choice at that time was justified. In 2017, Maotai’s price-earnings ratio reached 30 times, and Dong Baozhen thought it was expensive. At that time, CCB was trading at 6.x times earnings. It seems that CCB is more cost-effective. Although the stock price did not support Dong Baozhen, it is difficult for us to say that Dong Baozhen was obviously wrong at that time.
Let him pass the past, come to this point in time. November 6, 2022. I did a calculation. My model looks like this.
A. Moutai:
With a life span of 50 years, the compound growth rate of net profit in the next 10 years will be 13%, and the compound growth rate of net profit in the next 40 years will be 5%. The dividend rate is 50%. For Maotai, on the day of bankruptcy, the retained profits will be discounted by 30%.
Under this model, buying Moutai at the current price has a compound annual return of 7%.
B. CCB
With a life span of 30 years, the compound growth rate of net profit in the next 10 years is 5%; the growth rate in the middle 10 years is 2%; the growth rate in the last ten years is 0%. 30% dividend rate. In bankruptcy, the liquidation value is 0.
Under this model, the annual compound rate of return for buying CCB at the current price is 10%.
The current CCB is obviously more cost-effective than Maotai.
Of course, some investors may disagree with the development model I have established for Moutai and CCB. May also disagree with my calculations. After all, I have not published the detailed calculation process. But if you do similar calculations, you get similar results to Erma. So my question is, in this case, are you willing to choose CCB or Maotai.
If you choose Moutai, then the underlying reason is whether “the CCB is cost-effective, but it does not rise; and Moutai has risen in the past, you expect it will continue to rise”
If you choose CCB, do you think that the value will only be late and will not be absent. Will you be willing to wait 5 years like Dong Baozhen, and another 5 years.
The road to value investing is not easy. Moutai was dormant for eight years before it started to rise in 2016. Will 2021 be another 2007 for Moutai? Will those who buy Maotai in 2021 not make money for 8 years?
From the second half of 2016 to the first half of 2018, the share price of CCB doubled in two years. The debt has been repaid for the past four years. So, will CCB continue to repay its debts in the future, or will winter come to spring? Where is the catalyst for CCB to rise again?
The market can’t seem to escape the cycle.
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