Original link: https://www.latepost.com/news/dj_detail?id=1337
Buy a house in the late six months, the interest can be reduced by 20%
Before the “November” holiday, the People’s Bank of China, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, and the Ministry of Finance successively issued a number of policies aimed at reducing the cost of buying a house, such as lowering the loan interest rate of the housing provident fund for the first home, allowing some cities to cancel the lower limit of the commercial loan interest rate for the first home.
According to incomplete statistics from Late Finance and Economics, more than 30 cities have lowered the first-home provident fund loan interest rate to the lower limit (3.1%), including Nanjing, Wuhan, Hangzhou, Hefei, Zhengzhou, Shijiazhuang, Harbin and other provincial capital cities. This is the first time since August 2015 that China has lowered the interest rate on provident fund loans.
In terms of commercial loans, Guangdong Yangjiang and Qingyuan lowered the lower limit of commercial loan interest rates for the first home to 3.9% and 3.7%, respectively, which is lower than the benchmark interest rate commonly used by banks (five-year LPR, 4.3%). Jiangmen, Yunfu, Zhanjiang and other prefecture-level cities have removed interest rate floors. The first-time commercial loan interest rate in Wuhan also dropped to 3.9%.
A private equity real estate researcher said that in terms of mortgage interest rates alone, policy support is close to the two-wave real estate downturn period in 2008 and 2014.
“Waidian Finance” inquired about Wind’s statistics on the average mortgage interest rate for the first home in the country. This year alone, it has dropped from 5.39% in February to 4.39% in August, which is already the lowest value since the statistics of this indicator (since January 2014). ). The five-year LPR has also dropped three times this year.
Note: The average mortgage interest rate for the first home and the trend of the provident fund loan interest rate of 5 years and above.
Lower interest rates on loans can really save you a lot of money. We take the national average interest rate for the first home in different periods, and estimate that the cost of borrowing is about 20% lower than that at the beginning of the year based on the assumption that the homebuyer will borrow 3 million yuan and repay the principal and interest in equal installments over 30 years.
The first is that the 3 million yuan is all commercial loans
- The interest rate is 5.39%, and the total interest is 3057792.68 yuan, 16827.2 yuan per month.
- The interest rate is 4.39%, the total interest is 2401840.18 yuan, 15005.11 yuan per month.
- Floating by 1 percentage point, saving 655,952.5 yuan in interest over 30 years, saving 21.45%.
The second is a combination loan of 2.5 million yuan for commercial loans and 500,000 yuan for provident fund loans
- The commercial loan interest rate is 5.39%, the provident fund loan interest rate is 3.25%, and the total interest is 2831531.94 yuan, 16198.7 yuan per month.
- The commercial loan interest rate is 4.39%, the provident fund loan interest rate is 3.1%, and the total interest is 2,270,163 yuan, 14,639.34 yuan per month.
- Combined, the latter loan interest rate combination can save 561,368.94 yuan in 30 years, or 19.82%.
The incentive effect of these policies on the property market remains to be seen. Buying a house is the biggest single consumption in most people’s life, and they carry half-life debt for it. Various realities and expectations for the future influence home buying decisions.
Nanjing continued to introduce policies to ease purchase and sales restrictions in April, and was one of the first cities to follow the interest rate cut recently. The sales area in August rose by 36.2% year-on-year, and fell by 28.5% in September. Compared with Shanghai and Beijing, which were the most powerful buyers, the sales area of commercial housing in the former turned positive year-on-year in September, while the decline in the latter narrowed to 1.7% year-on-year. However, in the first week of October, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities across the country decreased by 72.6% year-on-year. (Gong Fangyi)
How High Overseas Inflation Affects Consumer Confidence
Under the expectation of high inflation, the growth rate of consumption in Europe and the United States has slowed down, which has affected the clothing exports of China and Vietnam to a certain extent, which may also affect the market’s expectations for leading companies.
In August of this year, China’s apparel exports amounted to approximately US$18.49 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, a slowdown from the double-digit growth in previous months. In the first 8 months, the cumulative export of clothing was about 118.03 billion US dollars, an increase of 11.6% year-on-year. The value of Vietnam’s textile and clothing exports to the US turned negative in September (-10.44%).
FT said that Shein, which reached a valuation of US$100 billion in April this year, was recently sold by old shareholders at a valuation of US$65 billion to US$85 billion. The article said the valuation discount is partly due to growing expectations that the U.S. economy will fall into a recession, and that interest rate hikes that accompany high inflation are the incentives.
Shein told “Waidian Finance” that “there is no such old stock transaction, and any transaction needs to be authorized by the company in advance.”
Investors are still likely to deal privately. However, a Shein investor told Late Finance that there is no problem with the company’s own operations, and the rumors of valuation adjustments are mainly affected by the weakening of the capital market. This year, ByteDance and Instacart also have rumors that their valuations have shrunk. In the secondary market, the KWEB ETF, which is often used to represent the overall trend of Chinese concept stocks, fell by 32.2% during the year.
Legend: KWEB (yellow line), S&P 500 (red line), and Nasdaq (blue line) declined during the year.
Regarding consumer confidence in the United States, according to a survey conducted by Morgan Stanley in early September to about 2,000 consumers in the United States, inflation is the top concern of people, and 64% of the respondents listed this as their primary concern. In addition, low-income consumers are generally more worried about being unable to pay rent and other debts, while high-income consumers are more worried about the deterioration of the investment and political environment.
More than 60% of respondents said they may cut spending in the next six months. About 42% of respondents would switch from a well-known brand to private label, and 32% would consider switching to a cheaper retailer.
Another report by SPDB International, which analyzes changes in individual consumer behavior in the United States, mentioned the dual effects of previous over-consumption and current interest rate hikes. Citing statistics from Macrobond, they said that personal consumption expenditures in the United States will grow by about 7.9% in 2021, of which consumption of goods will increase by 12.2% and consumption of services will increase by 5.8%, which is significantly and continuously higher than the linear trend since 2005.
As the epidemic slows down, government subsidies are withdrawn, and lower income and savings will drive consumption down. In June 2022, the U.S. employment survey showed that the percentage of people who “believed that wages will decrease in the next six months” rose to 15.2%, the highest since September 2020.
Raising interest rates “by” raising borrowing costs, increasing interest rates and driving down asset prices, weakening the wealth effect and squeezing consumption.
The US 30-year mortgage interest rate rose from 3.1% in the fourth quarter of last year to 5.7% in the second quarter of this year. Analysts at SPDB International expect US household mortgage interest rates to rise from US$339.9 billion to US$637.2 billion in the same period. The three major stock indexes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq, fell 19.48%, 13.18% and 20.86% respectively during the year.
Shein could theoretically benefit from this change in consumer behavior. Fashion magazine WWD has reported that Shein has done a survey on inflation and consumer behavior. 89% of the respondents are worried about the overall impact of the increase in the cost of living, and 87% of the respondents said that they will be more affordable after the cost of living increases. s brand.
The risk is how deep and how long consumers’ pessimism goes. In the survey conducted by Shein, 89 percent said they would buy less clothes if living expenses continued to rise. 83% of people would not buy new clothes in this situation and continue to wear what they bought before.
This will test the brand’s grasp of the market trend, as well as its supply chain and inventory management capabilities. 36kr previously said that Shein had $16 billion in sales in the first half of this year. This scale has surpassed Zara.
H&M parent company, whose currency-adjusted sales fell 4% year-on-year in the quarter ended in August, has excess inventory in many places and is betting on a September back-to-school season. Meanwhile, Zara’s parent company fared much better, with revenue up 25% and net profit up 41% in the summer, and is preparing to stock up on more inventory. Pinduoduo’s Temu has entered the United States. (Gong Fangyi)
Haitian Flavor lost 35.8 billion yuan in market value in one day
On October 10, Haitian Flavor opened sharply lower by 7.99% and closed down by 9.35%. The total market value was about 347.9 billion yuan, and the evaporation exceeded 35.8 billion yuan in a single day. Another condiment company, Qianhe Flavor, opened at the daily limit, with a total market value of 15.9 billion yuan.
The pessimism of the market is still related to the recent debate over what and how to use food additives in different markets. At first, some people posted the ingredients list of Haitian soy sauce sold abroad on social platforms. There are only water, soybeans, wheat and other raw materials on it, and no additives. However, Haitian soy sauce sold in China has more additives, and there are double standards in product quality. .
Haitian Flavor issued a statement on September 30 and October 4 respectively, stating that the use and labeling of food additives in all products comply with relevant domestic standards and regulations, and that food additives are widely used in food manufacturing in countries around the world. All countries have clear regulations and standards for food additives, and these standards themselves are not high or low.
On the evening of the 9th, Haitian Flavor issued an announcement to respond to the soy sauce additive incident for the third time. It means that no matter in the domestic or international market, the company has products with different grades of high, medium and low, and both products with food additives and those without food additives are sold.
At the heart of the controversy is the sodium benzoate preservative added to soy sauce. Different countries have different standards for the use of additives. According to China’s current GB2760-2014 national food safety standards, the maximum use amount is 1.0 grams per kilogram. The Japanese requirement for sodium benzoate is 0.6 grams per kilogram. Haitian’s statement on the 5th stated that “the internal control standards for soy sauce at home and abroad are consistent.”
According to China’s current standards, based on an adult’s weight of 60 kg, a minimum intake of 38.82 grams of sodium benzoate in one day is required to cause harm to the human body, and the corresponding intake of soy sauce is about 39 kg.
Among China’s current 2020 mandatory national standards and 39,524 recommended national standards, most of them are formulated by leading enterprises in the industry. The market share of Haitian soy sauce in China has ranked first for many years in a row. In the first half of this year, Haitian Flavor’s revenue was 13.532 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.73%; its net profit was 3.393 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.21%. (Intern Zeng Xing)
Know it later丨Semiconductor equipment maker Fuchuang Precision went public and closed up 51% on the first day
There were at least 4 IPOs in A shares this week.
- Xinzhi Bio: Raised 330 million yuan to provide scientific experimental instruments and equipment for users in the field of life science research and industrialization.
- Fuchuang Precision: Raised 3.658 billion yuan, it is a domestic manufacturer of precision parts that can mass-produce semiconductor equipment with a 7-nanometer process.
- Bide Pharmaceutical: Raised about 1.3 billion yuan, focusing on the research and development, production, sales and synthesis customization of pharmaceutical intermediates related products.
- Kechuan Technology: Raised 596 million yuan, the main business is the design, research and development, production and sales of functional devices for consumer electronics and new energy vehicle power batteries.
There are at least 2 IPOs in Hong Kong stocks this week.
- Jianshi Technology: is a medical device company dedicated to developing innovative products for the treatment of structural heart disease.
- GC Construction: Hong Kong’s cement and water contractor, established in 2005, has been undertaking cement and water works as a subcontractor.
U.S. stocks have at least 4 IPOs this week.
- Japanese luxury residential developer Lead Real Estate
- Alopexx
- Israeli image and video company Beamr Imaging
- Genelux Corporation, a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company
CHART OF THE DAY | Q3 Survey of the People’s Bank of China
OTHER NEWS
The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2974.15 points.
On October 10, the first A-share trading day after the holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2974.15 points, down 1.66%. The stock prices of 3,912 companies in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing markets fell.
BOSS direct employment application for dual primary listing on the Stock Exchange.
On October 10, BOSS Zhipin submitted a dual main listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs serving as joint sponsors. Since the beginning of the year, a number of companies such as Shell and Lili Auto have successfully completed dual main listings in Hong Kong, China, while Alibaba has applied for dual main listings.
We have previously introduced two types of listing status for Chinese-funded companies in US stocks to return to Hong Kong, secondary listing and dual primary listing:
The regulatory and compliance requirements for secondary listing are relatively low, the listing process is relatively simple and time-consuming, and relevant companies can be included in the main constituent index of Hong Kong stocks, but they cannot be included in the Southbound Stock Connect for the time being.
Dual-listed companies can be included in the index and Southbound Stock Connect, but other regulatory requirements are higher, compliance requirements are higher, governance structure requirements are more complete, information disclosure requirements are more detailed, stocks in the place of initial listing cannot be converted, and they need to fully meet the regulatory requirements of the two places Agency reporting, auditing and other regulations.
Hema community group purchases only stay in Shanghai.
Hema’s neighborhood business closed Hangzhou and Nanjing on the 9th. Since last year, Hema has closed many Hema neighborhood sites. In April this year, it evacuated Beijing, Xi’an, Chengdu, and Wuhan again. At present, there is only one division in Shanghai for the group purchase business of Hema community. Hou Yi, the founder and CEO of Hema Fresh, once said that Hema Neighborhood is the most important strategy in the next decade.
Haidilao announced a repurchase of up to $240 million in bonds.
On the morning of October 10, Haidilao announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that the company is now making an offer. Haidilao currently plans to accept a maximum amount of US$240 million in the total principal amount of the notes in 2026. The price of the note jumped 2.15% randomly, the biggest one-day gain in more than a month.
In the first eight months of CATL, the global battery installation volume has exceeded that of last year.
According to data from SNE Research, a global information agency, from January to August this year, the total installed capacity of electric vehicle batteries in the world was 287.6 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 78.7%. Among them, CATL topped the list, with a cumulative installed capacity of 102.2 GWh, exceeding that of last year.
Mongolian Airlines operates a Boeing 737 MAX 8 flight from Ulaanbaatar to Guangzhou.
According to FlightRadar24 data, at 8:18 a.m. on the 10th, a Mongolian Airlines flight from Ulaanbaatar landed in Guangzhou, marking the first return of Boeing 737 Max to a route involving destinations in China in four years. According to the flight plan of Mongolian Airlines, its 737 MAX aircraft will fly this route again on the 17th and 24th of this month. The review of Boeing 737 Max in China is still in progress.
Wuxi Biologics, a subsidiary of Wuxi Biologics, has been removed from the U.S. “Unverified List.”
WuXi Biologics announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that its subsidiary Wuxi Biologics had been removed from the U.S. Department of Commerce’s “Unverified List” (UVL) on October 7. In February of this year, two Wuxi Biologics subsidiaries in Wuxi and Shanghai were added to the list, triggering a drop in the valuation of the company and the CXO sector. Wind data shows that from February to now, the average share price of CXO key companies has fallen by 37%, of which WuXi Biologics has fallen by 40%. The UVL list means that the U.S. government cannot verify end users and uses. According to the new regulations released by the United States on October 7, if the entities on the UVL list do not cooperate with the investigation, they will be included in the list of entities under strict export control.
On October 9, Guangdong added local cases “27+24”.
- On October 9, there were 373 new local confirmed cases and 1,566 asymptomatic infections.
- Beijing added 13 local confirmed cases and 3 local asymptomatic infections.
- As of 15:00 on the 10th, there were 12 new cases of local infection.
- Shanghai added a new local “3+31”, and Putuo District and Changning District suspended the opening of cultural and entertainment venues.
- On the 10th, there was a new case of local asymptomatic infection.
- Guangdong added local “27+24”, of which Guangzhou added “5+15” and Shenzhen added “9+1”.
- A clustered outbreak of a ship repairing and repairing company in Nansha District, Guangzhou, infected more than 69 people, and did not cause social spread.
- Inner Mongolia added 119 local confirmed cases and 559 local asymptomatic infections.
- Xinjiang added 70 new local confirmed cases and 376 asymptomatic infections.
- A total of 299 positive infections have been reported in this round of epidemic in Yuncheng, Shanxi.
- A total of 10 cases of positive infection have been reported in this round of epidemic in Yantai City, Shandong Province, and the virus is Omicron variant BF.7.
It is rumored that Tencent has suspended the acquisition of Black Shark mobile phones.
According to the “Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily” report, Black Shark Technology has recently laid off nearly half of its employees. Among them, the hardest hit area is the VR business. Insiders say that the proportion of layoffs is 60%. All positions still in the probationary period will be cancelled at one time. People familiar with the matter said that Tencent’s acquisition of Black Shark Technology has been suspended, or the reason for the layoffs.
Nearly 70 percent of U.S. LNG exports in September went to Europe.
According to media reports, a total of 87 cargo ships in the United States left the port in September, loading 6.3 million tons of LNG, slightly higher than that in August. Of this, 4.37 million tonnes were shipped to Europe, nearly 70%, up from 56% in August and 63% in July.
Japan’s saury shortage, civilian food is no longer cheap.
Since the start of the autumn saury fishing season this year, there has been a fish shortage in Japan. A fishing port in Hokkaido went to sea for the first time this year, and the catch was only one-tenth of last year. Due to the continuous reduction in catches, the purchase price of saury has doubled from previous years. The Japan Fisheries Agency said that this year, the resources of saury in the North Pacific region are only about one-third of the peak period, and the catch is expected to remain low.
Lee Kum Kee appoints former Tmall president as CEO.
Lee Kum Kee Sauce Group has announced the appointment of Jing Jie as Group CEO. According to official information, Jing Jie has held a number of high-level leadership positions in Alibaba Group, including group vice president and assistant CEO, and president of Tmall. Before joining Alibaba, Jing Jie was responsible for different levels of marketing and operations in Procter & Gamble and COFCO.
The net profit of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings in the third quarter is expected to decrease by 12.45% from the previous quarter.
On the evening of October 10, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings issued an announcement on pre-increase in performance, and it is expected that the net profit in the first three quarters will be about 97.206 billion yuan. On a quarterly basis, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings’ estimated net profit in the third quarter was 32.484 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.45% from the second quarter’s 37.105 billion yuan. The performance of the third quarter, which should be the traditional peak season of the container shipping market, was weaker than that of the second quarter. At present, the freight rates of the US West and US East routes have shrunk significantly and have returned to the level of 2020.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and other three won the 2022 Nobel Prize in Economics.
Sharing the award with Bernanke were Douglas Diamond of the University of Chicago and Philip Dybvig of the University of Washington for their research on the role of banks in the economic and financial crisis. The committee said Bernanke’s insights underpinned the Fed’s efforts to avoid a deeper recession during the subprime mortgage crisis and the coronavirus pandemic. For Diamond and Davig, the committee believes they have laid the groundwork for modern bank regulation, developing theoretical models that explain why banks exist, why they are prone to rumoured runs, and how to deal with that vulnerability.
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