Central Bank survey: 16% of residents plan to buy a house in the next three months, a sharp drop in the proportion

The “Questionnaire Report on Urban Depositors in the Fourth Quarter of 2022” released by the central bank shows that in the next three months, 16.0% of residents plan to buy a house, which is significantly lower than the 17.1% in the third quarter and a record high since the second half of 2016. A new low (15.1% in the second quarter of 2016). At the same time, the proportion of residents who believe that housing prices will continue to rise is still decreasing. | Related reading (Tiger Sniff)

Chu Lanlan

The central bank conducts surveys of urban depositors, entrepreneurs, and bankers every quarter to become a barometer of the economy. Under the condition that the real estate policy continues to improve, residents’ willingness to buy houses declined in the fourth quarter and their confidence in rising housing prices is basically the same. The survey situation reflects the economic status, residents’ confidence and willingness to a certain extent.

Affected by the epidemic in the past three years, many industries have turned from prosperity to decline. 53.7% of entrepreneurs believe that the macro economy is “cold”, indicating that economic recovery will take time. In the past, when the economy was booming, everyone was thinking about how to make money, real estate and stock speculation to start a business. Now, 61.8% of the residents tend to “save more”. People have tight money and dare not spend it recklessly. This can also be seen from the fact that health care spending will rank first in the next three months. 49.1% of the residents in the survey think that the employment situation is grim, and the confidence index is declining.

Taking a comprehensive look at the various indicators of the survey, residents’ market confidence and willingness to consume and invest need to be improved. Residents are still not very optimistic about the real estate market at present. From the fact that only 14% of the residents are expected to “rise” in housing prices, it is normal that only a low 16% of residents want to buy a house. As the economy recovers and the property market picks up, residents’ willingness to buy houses may pick up in the next quarter.

leisurely

China has a vast territory and great differences. In the next three months, 16% of the residents plan to buy a house, which should be refined to make the improvement of future real estate policies more precise.

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