Supply side: Accelerated release on the output side, structural imbalance on the inventory side, weak import side
Accelerated release at the origin: In November, the monthly output of raw coal was 391.31 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and the growth rate was +1.9PCT in October, an increase of 5.7% month-on-month. The cumulative raw coal output from January to November was 4,094.08 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%. The increase narrowed by 0.3 PCT compared with January-October, the policy of increasing production and ensuring supply continued to exert force, and the release of raw coal showed a stable, medium and loose trend.
Unbalanced inventory structure: As of December 14, the coal inventory of Qinhuangdao Port/CCTD mainstream ports was 5.64/55.06 million tons respectively, showing a slight drop in the past month, mainly due to the cold weather and traffic obstruction; in terms of power plant inventory, As of December 10, the coal stocks of national unified power plants/national key power plants/power plants in eight southern provinces/power plants in sample areas were 17,500/10,430/3,039/30.96 million tons, respectively, all of which were high and continued to accumulate; comprehensively, the port inventory in the past month Slight decline, the high inventory of power plants continued to accumulate, and the inventory structure showed an unbalanced state, which was generally high.
Weak import performance: From January to November 2022, coal and lignite imports fell by 10.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 PCT compared with January-October. In November, coal imports were 32.313 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8% +9%), a month-on-month increase of 10.7%. Affected by the high base of imported coal at the end of the year, the performance of the import side in November was slightly weaker. It is expected that the annual import volume will not exceed 300 million tons, which is a decrease from 2021.
Terminal demand: infrastructure continues to improve, manufacturing/real estate still needs to be repaired
1) From January to November, the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment was 5.3%, which was 0.5 PCT lower than the growth rate from January to October. The cumulative growth rate of investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate from January to November was 11.65%/9.3%/- 9.8%, +0.26, -0.4, and -1 percentage points respectively compared with the growth rate from January to October, showing that the infrastructure has improved month-on-month, and the manufacturing/real estate side still needs to be repaired.
2) According to the data of total thermal coal demand and total supply, after the supply-side reform in 2016 to 2021, the total thermal coal consumption over the years has been slightly greater than the total supply, presenting a state of tight balance between supply and demand. According to the data in May and June 2022, thermal coal consumption is slightly smaller than the total supply. In July and August, the total demand is slightly larger than the total supply, and it shows that the gap between supply and demand is gradually widening, and the supply and demand pattern is moving toward a tight balance again. In September 1. The supply and demand structure in October was weaker on the basis of the peak season, showing a pattern of slightly greater supply than demand.
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