Industry Viewpoint
Under the background of the surge in demand for hydrogen in the fields of transportation, industry and energy storage, electrolytic hydrogen production equipment is the first to benefit. In 2025, the demand for electrolytic hydrogen production in the fields of transportation, industry, and energy storage will exceed 500,000 tons, the cumulative demand for electrolyzer installed capacity will exceed 15GW, and the cumulative market size will exceed 31 billion yuan. The inter-seasonal, daily peak-shaving energy storage fields of electric power, as well as the industrial and transportation fields with strict carbon emission restrictions will be the main demand side of electrolytic hydrogen production in the future. We estimate the cumulative situation of various fields in 2021-2025 as follows:
Transportation: Over 100,000 fuel cell vehicles, 12% green hydrogen penetration rate, 210,000 tons of green hydrogen demand, corresponding to 6.4GW electrolyzers, and a cumulative market size of 13.9 billion yuan.
Industry: Steel production exceeds 2 billion tons, green hydrogen penetration rate is 1%, green hydrogen demand is 100,000 tons, corresponding to electrolyzer 3GW, and the cumulative market size reaches 6.4 billion yuan.
Energy storage: The energy storage required for cross-quarter and daily energy storage exceeds 400 billion kWh, the penetration rate of green hydrogen is 1%, the demand for green hydrogen is 200,000 tons, corresponding to 6GW of electrolyzers, and the cumulative market size reaches 11.9 billion yuan.
Alkaline and proton exchange membrane electrolyzers are commercialized first, and the current mix and match of the two is the most cost-effective solution. Mainstream electrolyzer technologies are divided into alkaline electrolyzer (ALK), proton exchange membrane electrolyzer (PEM) and solid oxide electrolyzer (SOEC). The first two have been commercialized, and the last one is still in the laboratory to industrialization excessive state. Under the promotion of the current demonstration projects, the purchase cost is the primary factor, and the alkaline electrolyzer has significant advantages, which is expected to account for more than 90% before 2025; as the follow-up projects gradually transition to operation, the whole life cycle cost is the primary factor, when PEM electrolysis When the cost of tank equipment is 3-4 times that of alkaline equipment, the cost of hydrogen production between the two can be basically equal. Assuming an electricity charge of 0.3 yuan/kwh, the cost: mixed solution (80%ALK+20%PEM)<alkaline electrolyzer<PEM electrolyzer.
High efficiency, low cost, and large scale are the future trends of hydrogen production by electrolysis of water. The cost of electrolytic hydrogen production comes from electricity charges and equipment, and the future development trends correspond to: 1) High efficiency: improve energy conversion efficiency and reduce power consumption; 2) Low cost: cooperate with “three wastes” to effectively use fluctuating energy at low electricity prices; 3) Scale: technology update and large-scale production of equipment to reduce costs.
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