China National Finance Securities-Semiconductor Design in 2023: Recovery and Shifting (with report)

Industry Viewpoint

Industry inventories have reached historical highs, and active destocking may begin. The number of months of inventory of foreign and domestic manufacturers continues to rise, and has exceeded 4 months of safe inventory months. The terminal inventory is at the highest level in history. With the end of the epidemic, it is expected that consumption will gradually recover in the second half of 2023, and the pace of supply and demand adjustment is approaching. The semiconductor industry has gradually started the main theme of active destocking.

According to the three major signals, active destocking may start. 1) The capacity utilization rate of Fab plants began to decline, and capital expenditures were decreasing. In terms of 8-inch and 12-inch fabs, the capacity utilization rate has declined to varying degrees. Compared with the 12-inch fab, the capacity utilization rate of the 8-inch fab has declined even more. Portfolio switching made up for lower capacity utilization in the consumer segment. 2) Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturers began to enter the stage of active destocking in the third quarter of this year. We have tracked that the inventory of Taiwan’s original semiconductor factory began to drop slightly by 1 point from the previous quarter in the third quarter of this year, and started to actively destock. Referring to the previous rounds of cycles, the adjustment cycle of active destocking is 3-4 quarters, and then enters the prosperity of passive destocking. upward period. 3) The delivery time of automotive MCU and model chips with a high degree of shortage is shortening, and the Fab factory will switch its production capacity between weak applications (consumer products) and strong demand (automotive products, analog products).

Go to the weak and stay strong and continue to be optimistic about strong applications such as cars, servers, and industries. According to McKinsey, the global semiconductor market will exceed US$1 trillion in 2030. Among them, the automotive semiconductor market will grow from US$50 billion in 2021 to US$150 billion in 2030, with a CAGR of 13% in 21-30 years, ranking first in terms of compound growth rate. The market size of industrial semiconductors will grow from US$60 billion in 2021 to US$130 billion in 2030, with a CAGR of 9% in 21-30 years.

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