Original link: https://www.latepost.com/news/dj_detail?id=1702
Cutting interest rates can’t drive away deposits
Following the lowering of medium and long-term deposit interest rates by major state-owned banks last week, China Merchants Bank, Ping An Bank and other joint-stock banks followed up this week, forming a de facto deposit interest rate cut.
This round of deposit interest rate cuts is mainly aimed at newly deposited 2-year, 3-year and 5-year fixed deposits (lump deposit and lump sum withdrawals). All banks generally lowered it by 0.1 to 0.15 percentage points. Taking China Merchants Bank as an example, lump sum deposits with 2-year, The 3-year and 5-year RMB time deposit rates were reduced to 2.05% (-0.1 pts), 2.45% (-0.15pts) and 2.50% (-0.15pts) respectively.
- Before the reduction, 1 million yuan is deposited for three years, with an annual interest rate of 2.6%, and the maturity interest is 78,000 yuan;
- After the reduction, 1 million yuan is deposited for three years, the annual interest rate is 2.45%, and the maturity interest is 73,500 yuan.
If the bank’s self-rising interest rate is not considered, the 5-year deposit rate is already lower than 3%. Deposits not yet matured will not be affected. An employee of a major state-owned bank in Shanghai told us that the real impact is likely to be on the 3-year fixed deposit customers, because the interest rate is 0.4 percentage points higher than that of the 2-year term and only 0.05 percentage points lower than that of the 5-year term, which is the most cost-effective.
The intention to reduce deposit interest is self-evident. In the first quarter, the average net interest margin of large state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks across the country declined to varying degrees, and only foreign-funded banks and private banks showed a trend of increase. After paying interest and accumulating a large amount of residents’ savings, the bank has not been able to easily find individuals or companies willing to lend at a higher interest rate as it did in previous years.
At the end of April, more than 70% of the nearly 130 trillion yuan of household savings across the country were regular savings, the highest proportion since statistics were available. We calculated last week that among the nearly 77.6 trillion yuan of corporate deposits in the same period, fixed deposits accounted for 52,577.492 billion yuan, accounting for 67.76%, both in scale and proportion.
During the same period, the amount of new loans to residents dropped sharply. In the first three months of this year, the net increase in household loans across the country was 1.71 trillion yuan, and the net increase in savings was 9.9 trillion yuan, an increase of more than 2 trillion yuan year-on-year. The RMBS conditional prepayment rate index in June was almost twice the average of the last two years.
In fact, before the current round of lower interest rates on resident deposits, the relevant regulatory authorities restricted agreement deposits (the agreed amount of corporate deposits enjoy higher interest rates than demand deposits) and call deposits (half demand deposits, with a certain period of notice in advance for withdrawals, enjoy higher interest rates than demand deposits) interest rate) floating upper limit of the interest rate.
The above-mentioned bank staff said that the number of people inquiring about interest rate changes has increased in the past two days, mainly the elderly. For depositors who want to transfer, the branch staff basically do not retain them, although deposits are still one of the branch assessment indicators. They also saw that some depositors accepted the reality of a stepwise decline in deposit interest rates, saying that some depositors said that even if the interest rate fell again, they would still consider depositing for a fixed period. (Gong Fangyi)
China’s second wave of new crown infections has passed its peak
According to the monitoring report released by China CDC on June 12, from February to early April this year, the epidemic situation of new coronavirus infection in the whole country (except Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, the same below) was sporadic, and it began to gradually increase in late April, and the upward trend in late May slowed down and is currently on a downward trend.
Specific highlights of the report include:
- In May, 2,777 new severe cases and 164 deaths were reported across the country;
- The number of fever clinics across the country dropped from a peak of 360,000 on May 16 to 294,000 on May 31;
- The proportion of influenza-like cases (fever + cough / sore throat) in outpatient and emergency department visits in sentinel hospitals across the country has dropped from 6.2% in the 20th week (May 15 to May 21) to 21 weeks (May 22 to May 21). 5.8% on May 28). The previous highest value appeared from December 19 to December 26 last year, reaching 12.1%;
- The proportion of Omicron XBB and its sub-branches gradually increased, reaching 92.4% in the last week of May.
Compared with April, the number of fever clinic visits, severe cases and death cases increased in May, but the overall level was low, far lower than the peak of the epidemic at the end of last year. The population is the main group, and the average age of the dead cases is 79.3 years old, and more than 90% of them have underlying diseases combined with new coronavirus infection.
China CDC stated that the WHO has announced on May 5 that the new crown no longer constitutes a “public health emergency of international concern”. The new crown is a Class B and B infectious disease in China. Published once a month.
Earlier, Zhong Nanshan’s team predicted based on calculations based on big data models that the second wave of domestic epidemics will reach a peak of 65 million per week by the end of June. At present, the peak of this wave of epidemics has come earlier than expected. We have sorted out before that the United States, which also ushered in the second wave of the Omicron epidemic in the summer (last year), had a single-day peak of about 30% of the first wave of new cases in the second wave of the epidemic. The single-week peaks were 29.7% and 16% of the first wave, respectively.
Regarding how to deal with the new crown at present, “Zhuang Shilihe”, the director of a Guangzhou medical department of Shengnuo and a well-known medical science blogger, suggested on his personal Weibo:
Take appropriate protection in high-risk situations, and prepare necessary over-the-counter drugs at home (consider whether to stock antiviral drugs based on personal knowledge and whether there are high-risk groups in the family). Healthy people who have been vaccinated with three doses of vaccine + positive test do not need to worry too much. You can consider waiting for the vaccine in autumn and winter this year, which may be a monovalent vaccine.
Industry inventory changes in the first quarter, who expands production and who clears goods
China Merchants Securities recently sorted out the first-quarter financial reports of A-share companies, and classified the industry into four stages according to the year-on-year growth rate of revenue and inventory: active inventory addition, passive inventory addition, active inventory reduction, and passive inventory reduction.
“Actively increasing inventory” means that both income (demand) and inventory (production) are increasing, which generally indicates that the industry is in a business cycle. Currently, three major types of industries have been observed.
- The first category is rigid consumption, such as beverages, dairy products, seasoning and fermented products, beauty care, etc.;
- The second category is industries rebounding from the bottom, such as hotels and catering, aviation and airports;
- The third category is sustained high-growth industries, mainly concentrated in new energy fields, such as batteries, photovoltaics, and passenger vehicles.
Among them, passenger cars are quite special. In the first quarter of this year, revenue increased, but profits fell. Inventory increased by nearly 60%, but capital expenditures still maintained high growth. The report reminds that the new energy industry and other industries have a long expansion cycle. If demand weakens in the future, or enters the stage of “passive inventory increase”, profits will be under pressure. At present, the market has significantly lowered the profit expectations of industries such as passenger vehicles, batteries, and energy metals.
According to data from the Automobile Dealers Association, the vehicle inventory coefficient of joint venture brands is much higher than that of domestic and imported brands.
Industries such as semiconductors, papermaking, and wind power equipment are already “passively increasing inventory”. Due to the release of early production capacity, inventory is still increasing, but revenue has decreased and profits have fallen sharply. In the first quarter of this year, the semiconductor industry’s inventory increased by one-third year-on-year, and profits fell by more than 60%. Inventories in the paper industry increased by 20%, and profits fell by 98%.
“Active destocking” includes steel, cement, household goods, computer equipment, etc. Revenue and inventory are declining, but most of them are still reducing capital expenditure. Both inventories and capital expenditures in the household goods industry fell 16 percent in the first quarter, and in the computer equipment industry, both inventories and capital expenditures fell 7 percent. The report pointed out that the current inventories of the two have fallen to extremely low levels in history, and once demand rebounds, it will directly stimulate production.
Consumer electronics, textiles and apparel, etc. are classified as “passive destocking”, but their revenue growth may be partly driven by promotions. In the first quarter of this year, the overall revenue of the consumer electronics industry increased by 1.7%, profits fell by 17%, and inventories decreased by 5.6%. Textile and apparel revenue increased by 4%, profits decreased by 3%, and inventories decreased by only 0.2%, which may be related to the increased stocking of new products.
The passive destocking cycle is generally short and is often regarded as a turning point. It could herald a recovery — companies ramping up production or expanding capacity if demand continues to pick up. But if the demand picks up only temporarily, companies may destock for a longer period of time and invest cautiously. (Lin Guangying)
Young people in the United States change their views on marriage, love and consumption, and the income of the world’s largest diamond dealer declines
In its most recent fiscal quarter ended April 29, revenue at Signet Jewelers, the world’s largest diamond jeweler, fell 9.3% year-on-year to $1.7 billion, with same-store sales down 13.9%.
Half of Emblem Jewelry’s revenue comes from selling engagement diamond rings. Company executives said that the decline in demand is because the new crown epidemic has hindered people’s dating, and inflation has shrunk everyone’s wallets. The weak demand is expected to continue throughout the year. To this end, Huiji Jewelry has lowered its annual revenue guidance by more than US$500 million, and plans to close 150 underperforming stores in the next year to achieve the newly established cost reduction target of more than US$225 million.
The reduction in revenue guidance exceeded market expectations, and Huiji Jewelry’s stock price fell 10.7% on the day, bringing down Pandora, Fossil Group and other peers.
On the earnings call, Insignia Jewelry CEO Virginia Drosos said the company expects demand for wedding rings to rebound next year. They divide the process of a couple from acquaintance to marriage into 45 “milestones”. If a couple can complete 27 of them, they are “very likely to get engaged”. Now consumers spend limited expenditures on services such as tourism Consumption, lovers travel more, and “traveling together” has a high weight in the company’s “marriage and love process”.
The market is concerned that Emblem and its peers have encountered a structural change rather than a cycle. In the United States, the headquarters and main market of Emblem Jewelry, the age of marriage for couples is generally delayed, and fewer and fewer people choose to get married.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the median age at first marriage in the U.S. will be 30.1 for men and 28.2 for women in 2022, up from 28.6 and 26.6 a decade ago. Even in 2019 before the epidemic, the American marriage rate has dropped to the lowest level since 1867 (with statistics) (6 pairs per thousand people). Also, not so friendly to diamond dealers, the American divorce rate is at a 50-year low.
In addition to the views on marriage and love, changes in young people’s consumption views are also affecting the demand for branded diamond rings. In China on the other side of the ocean, we have seen a significant change in the consumption trends of young people—buy products that are cost-effective, favorite, pleasing to oneself, and live in the present, rather than conventional, universal, and dispensable commodities.
For example, many young people have recently flocked to Shenzhen Shuibei, making a gold and jewelry wholesale market that was previously unknown to the public popular. There, some people are keen to find hot replacements for big-name jewelry, while others search for niche products such as Ultraman made of gold and gold excavators.
The pursuit of cost performance has also led more young consumers to accept cultivated diamonds whose crystal structure, physical and chemical properties are exactly the same as natural diamonds, but the price is only one-third of that. Bain Capital predicts that China’s lab-grown diamond market is expected to expand to 28 billion yuan in 2025, and the compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will reach 42%. (Qiu Hao)
Know it later丨The packaging suppliers of KFC and McDonald’s in China went public today
There is at least 1 IPO for A shares this week.
- Nanwang Technology: The main business is the research and development, production and sales of paper product packaging. The main products are environmentally friendly paper bags and food packaging. Established cooperative relations with KFC, McDonald’s, Starbucks, Anta, Xtep, etc. The net profit attributable to the parent in 2022 will be 75.5135 million yuan. It plans to raise 630 million yuan, which will be used for the construction project of green environmental protection paper product intelligent factory and the production and sales of paper product packaging. It rose 23.5% on the first day of listing.
There is at least 1 IPO for H shares this week.
- Kedi: A research and development-oriented biopharmaceutical company focusing on dermatology. It has developed eleven products for hair diseases, skin diseases and other fields, and has successfully launched two products so far. In 2021 and 2022, the losses will be 320 million yuan and 556 million yuan respectively, mainly due to the continuous expansion of research and development costs and administrative expenses. It plans to raise 465 million Hong Kong dollars, and rose 0.46% on the first day of listing.
There are at least 2 IPOs in US stocks this week.
- BranchOut Food: Produces and sells plant-based dehydrated foods. The dehydrated food produced is mainly sold through retailers such as Wal-Mart and Costco. In the first quarter of this year, the turnover was US$97,300, and the net loss was US$777,100. Plans to raise $9 million.
- Cava Group: An American restaurant chain group offering Mediterranean-style food and beverages. It currently has 263 stores in the United States and is expected to open 34 to 44 new chain restaurants this year. After a net loss of $59 million last year, it plans to raise $274 million this time. (Intern Fu Xiaoyu)
CHART OF THE DAY | The number of marriages in China will hit a record low in 2022
According to data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the number of marriages in China in 2022 will be 6.833 million, a record low since 1986 (the starting year for the Ministry of Civil Affairs to publish data).
- In 2013, China’s registered marriage population reached a historical peak of 13.469 million pairs, and has entered a downward trend year by year since then, with a cumulative decline of nearly half by 2022.
- According to the “China Census Yearbook-2020”, in 2020, the average age of first marriage for Chinese men is 29.38 years old, and for women is 27.95 years old. In 2010, the average age of first marriage of Chinese men was 25.75 years old, and the average age of first marriage of women was 24 years old. In ten years, the average age of first marriage has been delayed by nearly 4 years.
In terms of the divorced population, a total of 2.1 million couples registered for divorce last year (the statistics of the Ministry of Civil Affairs do not include court judgments and mediation divorces), which is a new low since 2012. (Qiu Hao)
OTHER NEWS
Messi will appear in the Taobao live broadcast room on June 14.
On June 14, Argentine football star Lionel Messi will appear in the live broadcast room of Taobao anchor Li Xuanzhuo’s “Yaowang Azhuo Pavilion”. minutes to start. According to the football player income list released by “Forbes” last year, Messi ranked second with an annual income of 120 million U.S. dollars, and his endorsement fees will reach 35 million U.S. dollars in 2021. Li Xuanzhuo is the anchor of the wine vertical category of Yaowang Technology. Affected by Messi, Yaowang Technology closed up 5.13% today.
Goldman Sachs does not expect a quick rebound in China’s property market.
A Goldman Sachs research report said that the real estate industry is expected to continue to slow down in the next few years, because China does not intend to use the real estate industry as a short-term stimulus tool, but hopes to reduce the economy’s dependence on the real estate industry. China’s residential market showed fresh signs of weakness, with the rebound in home sales slowing to just 6.7% in May from more than 29% in the previous two months. In addition, Goldman Sachs also said that the possible direction of China’s real estate is that China will reduce its economic and financial dependence on the industry, increase public housing, and gradually expand property taxes to more pilot cities.
In the first five months, Guangdong’s foreign trade exports increased by 30% compared with 2019, while imports decreased slightly.
According to the Guangdong Branch of the General Administration of Customs, Guangdong’s foreign trade exports in the first five months of this year were 2.13 trillion yuan and imports were 1.06 trillion yuan. Compared with 2019, exports increased by 30%, while imports fell by less than 2 percentage points. In addition, in terms of imports, general trade has maintained growth, private enterprises have played the main role in stabilizing foreign trade, and trade with emerging markets has continued to develop. The export of new products and agricultural products has increased significantly, and the import of bulk commodities and consumer goods has increased.
According to industry chain sources, Huawei raised its mobile phone shipment target to 40 million units this year.
According to the China Securities Taurus report, some people in the industry chain said that Huawei has recently raised its 2023 mobile phone shipment target to 40 million units, while the target at the beginning of the year was 30 million units. In the context of the current downturn in the entire smartphone market, Huawei is also the only mobile phone manufacturer that raised its shipment target. There was news in the industry earlier that Huawei plans to re-launch the 5G chipset in the second half of this year, but it will only be used on mid-range products at the beginning.
Mango TV’s revenue has surpassed that of Hunan Satellite TV.
Gong Zhengwen, general manager of Hunan Radio and Television Group, revealed in his speech that the revenue of Mango TV has surpassed that of Hunan Satellite TV. Launched in 2014, Mango TV has become China’s top streaming media platform by exclusively broadcasting Hunan Satellite TV’s variety shows and episodes online. Its current daily active users are second only to iQiyi and Tencent Video. According to Mango Super Media’s financial report, last year’s advertising revenue fell by about 26% year-on-year due to the impact of the macro economy, while membership business revenue increased by about 6% year-on-year, and the two were basically the same.
The French government has forced big food companies to cut prices as raw material costs have fallen.
Last Friday, the French Minister of Finance said that 75 food companies, including Unilever, have promised to reduce prices before July and will submit a list of price reduction products next week. Together, these companies produce 80% of France’s food. He said that because the cost of raw materials has fallen sharply, “all products whose prices have fallen in the wholesale market must be reduced in July” and that “there will be inspections and sanctions” for companies that do not comply with their commitments, and special taxes will be imposed to recover ” Improper” profits.
The ECB also noted at its April meeting that despite a “sharp fall” in commodity prices, food prices paid by consumers “remained little changed, suggesting that the expansion of profit margins is preventing a fall in inflation”. In May this year, although the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s world food price index has fallen to the lowest level in two years, French food prices still rose by 14% year-on-year.
Tesla may produce the pickup truck Cybertruck in the fourth quarter.
According to sources from Tesla suppliers, Cybertruck is expected to officially start production in early October, with a basic annual output of 375,000 units. In April of this year, Elon Musk said at the performance meeting that Cybertruck will hold delivery activities in the third quarter of this year and start mass production next year. Tesla originally planned to start mass production of the Cybertruck at the end of 2021, but it has been delayed several times due to supply chain issues and design issues with brakes, body sealing and suspension. At present, Cybertruck’s pre-orders have reached 1.5 million units. In December last year, Tesla delivered the first batch of electric truck Semi, which is currently mainly for enterprise customers, and PepsiCo is one of the first customers.
The largest nickel-producing country increases production, and the global nickel supply may become further surplus.
In 2022, Indonesia’s nickel production will increase by 54% year-on-year to 1.6 million tons, accounting for nearly half of the global supply. Indonesia’s existing planned nickel production capacity is about 5 million tons, which is expected to drive a further surplus of nickel. Last year, the average price of the three-month nickel contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was US$26,000 per ton, and the industry predicts that it will drop to US$24,000 this year and may fall below US$20,000 in the future, which is still higher than historical levels. Nickel is an important material for electric vehicle batteries. In March last year, the price of nickel on the LME once exceeded US$100,000 per ton.
BioNTech faces first lawsuit in Germany over side effects of COVID-19 vaccine.
Germany’s first lawsuit against the side effects of BioNTech’s new crown vaccine opened on June 12. The plaintiff, a German woman, claimed that she suffered from upper body pain, swelling of limbs, fatigue and sleep disturbance due to vaccination, and demanded at least 150,000 euros in compensation. BioNTech said it had no basis to believe its vaccine caused the symptoms. The German government provides financial support to individuals who have been permanently injured by vaccines, and individuals can seek compensation independently while receiving government financial support. When the EU purchased vaccines from companies such as BioNTech, it fully or partially exempted these companies from potential legal fees and liability, which may make governments bear part of the costs. There are currently about 350 similar cases in Germany.
Bezos bought 1 share of Amazon stock for unknown reasons.
Amazon founder Bezos bought 1 share of Amazon stock on May 25, his first recorded purchase since 2002, but the reason is not clear. Representatives for Amazon and Bezos declined to comment. Bezos currently owns 9.7 percent of Amazon and retains voting control of the 2.9 percent held by his ex-wife.
The European Union may conditionally approve Broadcom’s acquisition of VMware.
According to media reports, EU antitrust regulators will conditionally approve Broadcom’s $61 billion acquisition of virtualization software company VMware, provided Broadcom provides interoperability remedies to competitors to address competition concerns. In May 2022, Broadcom announced that it would acquire VMware at a price of approximately US$61 billion, which soon drew scrutiny from regulatory agencies in the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union.
Broadcom CEO Chen Fuyang is a well-known “merger maniac” in the industry. He had previously planned to acquire Qualcomm for US$130 billion, but was rejected by then US President Trump. According to estimates by Bernstein Research, VMware has a market share of 97% in virtualization software based on x86 chips. If the transaction is finally approved, Broadcom will make up for its software shortcomings and have a complete set of software and hardware solutions in the communications field.
Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi dies.
On June 12 local time, former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi died in a hospital in Milan at the age of 86. Berlusconi has served as Prime Minister of Italy three times and is also the one with the longest ruling period; he is also an Italian media tycoon, and he also acquired AC Milan in 1986 and became its chairman, making AC Milan one of the most brilliant football clubs in Europe one.
UBS finally set the risk boundaries for Credit Suisse.
According to people familiar with the matter, UBS executives have drawn up a list of more than 20 “red lines” restrictions, including prohibiting soliciting new customers from high-risk countries, issuing complex financial products, and using assets such as yachts, ships, and real estate as collateral for loans exceeding The $60 million needs to be approved. In addition, UBS said in an open letter that it has completed the acquisition of Credit Suisse.
Shanghai Blood Center and “Evangelion” are linked, donating blood can get limited souvenirs.
According to the official WeChat account of the Shanghai Blood Center, from June 17th to June 30th, citizens who donate blood at the blood donation car parked under the statue of the famous ACG landmark in Shanghai can stamp the Evangelion limited stamp and Get postcards and other collaboration souvenirs. In addition, the People’s Park Blood Donation Car on June 17 will also be synchronized for one day.
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