Daily Research Report Selection | Institution: The epidemic catalyzes the “camping economy”, and Li Ning, Anta, etc. are expected to benefit

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“Daily Research Report Selection” keeps up with the latest research report trends of institutions, provides insights and sorts out the most representative market, industry, and individual stock views, provides third-party institutional analysis and rating reference for Niu You, and helps Niu You give an overview of investment banking trends in one article , easily grasp the investment opportunities!

Today’s Focus

  1. CICC: Moderately overweight Hong Kong stocks and A shares, and overseas assets are raised from underweight to standard

  2. Guotai Junan: The supply of international pulp market is expected to tighten, and the cost advantage of large-scale paper enterprises is highlighted

  3. Zhongyuan Securities: Short-term focus on investment opportunities in engineering construction, new energy, medicine, aerospace and military industries

  4. Soochow Securities: Optimistic about the upward flexibility of catering leaders in the post-epidemic era, and recommends Jiu Mao Jiu, etc.

  5. CITIC Securities: The volume and price of property insurance have risen, and life insurance has completed the bottoming. China Property Insurance and AIA are the first choices

  6. Sinolink Securities: The epidemic catalyzes the “camping economy”, and related industry chains are expected to benefit

  7. Goldman Sachs: Maintain China Merchants Bank “Buy” rating, target price cut 32.6% to HK$54.78

  8. BofA Securities: Maintain “Buy” rating on COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, target price of HK$21.5

  9. CMB International: Maintain Mengniu Dairy’s “Buy” rating with a target price of HK$47.9

  10. CITIC Securities: Maintain China Resources Cement’s “Buy” rating with a target price of HK$8

Selected Research Viewpoints

1. Macro market

  • CICC: Moderately overweight A shares and Hong Kong stocks, and overseas assets are raised from underweight to standard

CICC believes that in addition to policies, there may also be some positive changes in domestic and overseas fundamentals in May. It is recommended to be cautiously optimistic about risk assets, moderately overweight A shares and Hong Kong stocks, and increase overseas assets from underweight to standard. The domestic stock index has benefited from the marginal improvement of the epidemic and policy support, while the valuation is relatively low. The risk premium suggests that the stock index is expected to outperform the debt index by more than 15% in the next year. From the perspective of liquidity, the credit pulse also suggests that the domestic stock index will perform well in the next 1-2 quarters.

2. Industry sectors

  • Guotai Junan: The supply of international pulp market is expected to tighten, and the cost advantage of large-scale paper enterprises is highlighted

Guotai Junan said that under the disturbance of multiple supply factors and financial attributes, international commodity pulp prices are expected to remain relatively high in the short term, and domestic finished paper prices have risen one after another since the beginning of the year. Affected by the cost of raw materials, environmental protection, and dual control of energy, the industry’s small and medium-sized production capacity has accelerated to withdraw, helping leading paper companies to give full play to their cost and scale advantages. Leading wood pulp paper companies represented by Sun Paper and Chenming Paper (01812.HK) have a relatively high rate of self-sufficiency in raw materials. With the advent of the industry peak season in the second half of the year, the profitability of paper product price increases is effectively implemented. It is expected that the chain will improve first and pick up.

  • Zhongyuan Securities: Short-term focus on investment opportunities in engineering construction, new energy, medicine, aerospace and military industries

Centaline Securities said that the current average price-earnings ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 12 times and 45 times, respectively, below the median level in the past three years; the trading volume of the two cities on Monday was 671.4 billion yuan, which was the average daily trading volume in the past three years. the median area of ​​. The overall trend of the number of new cases nationwide and in Shanghai is expected to continue to decline, and the speed of orderly resumption of production and work has been accelerated in various places. In the future, the stock index is generally expected to fluctuate upwards. At the same time, it is still necessary to pay close attention to the changes in policy, capital and hotspots leading the rise. We recommend investors to pay attention to investment opportunities in engineering construction, new energy, medicine, aerospace and military industries in the short-term, and continue to pay attention to investment opportunities in low-valued blue-chip stocks in the middle.

  • Soochow Securities: Optimistic about the upward flexibility of catering leaders in the post-epidemic era, and recommends Jiu Mao Jiu, etc.

Soochow Securities released the 2021&2022Q1 catering and tea performance summary, saying that looking forward to the market outlook, the epidemic is still the biggest uncertainty in the industry. With the stable epidemic prevention and control, we are optimistic about the upward flexibility of the performance of catering leaders in the post-epidemic era. We recommend $909 (09922.HK)$, $Hailunsi (09869.HK)$ , $Haidilao (06862.HK)$ , $Naixue’s Tea (02150.HK)$ ; suggest to pay attention to $Yum China-S(09987.HK)$ ; optimistic about the opportunities in the catering supply chain under the general trend of catering industrialization, recommend $Yihai International (01579.HK)$ .

  • CITIC Securities: The volume and price of property insurance have risen, and life insurance has completed the bottoming. China Property Insurance and AIA are the first choices

CITIC Securities released a research report saying that the property insurance industry has come out of an unfavorable stage, and leading property and casualty insurance companies are facing a good situation in which both volume and price are rising. Property + policy friendly, $China Property & Casualty Insurance (02328.HK)$ is the first choice for insurance. The life insurance industry is expected to complete the bottoming this year, and bancassurance business has become the main growth point. The current value of life insurance stocks includes license value, balance sheet value and future value brought by transformation, focusing on the mid-to-high-end market and AIA with clearer future value Insurance (01299.HK)$ , pay attention to the extremely low valuation of the People’s Insurance Company of China (01339.HK)$ .

  • Sinolink Securities: The epidemic catalyzes the “camping economy”, and related industry chains are expected to benefit

Sinolink Securities pointed out that the textile manufacturing side recommends focusing on Huali Group with significant customer advantages and clear follow-up capacity expansion plans, Jiansheng Group with customer optimization and clear inflection points, and Decathlon’s global strategic partner and outdoor OEM leader Zhejiang Natural. On the brand apparel side, it is recommended to pay attention to $Li Ning (02331.HK)$ , which has significantly improved its brand power and its current valuation is very cost-effective, and $ANTA Sports (02020.HK)$ , which has a perfect brand matrix in the outdoor sector.

Third, individual stocks

Goldman Sachs released a research report saying that it maintained a “buy” rating for China Merchants Bank, and the target price was cut by 32.6% from HK$81.37 to HK$54.78. Given the unexpected change in management and other factors, the stock price has fallen more than 20% from its recent high, and because the risk buffer remains strong, with a non-performing loan coverage ratio of 463% and a CET1 ratio of 12.7% as of the first quarter, the bank believes that investors The focus now is whether China Merchants Bank can continue to bring returns to it.

Bank of America Securities released a research report saying that it maintained the “buy” rating of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, the first-quarter results were in line with expectations, and the target price was HK$21.5. However, this year’s earnings forecast was lowered by RMB 9 billion to reflect the weak freight rate and volume in the second quarter due to the impact of the epidemic. The forecast for 2023 is largely unchanged, and the earnings per share forecast for 2022-24 is expected to be 5.88/1.49/ 1.36 yuan. The bank believes that freight rates are likely to move higher in May as Chinese exports recover and annual contracts are re-priced.

China Merchants Bank International released a research report saying that it maintains Mengniu Dairy’s “buy” rating and expects the acquisition to have a limited dilutive effect on earnings per share. If all transactions go well, and assuming no profit or loss from the acquisition, FY2022-24 EPS is expected to be diluted by 1.8%/2.1%/1.8%, with a target price of HK$47.9.

CITIC Securities released a research report saying that it maintains China Resources Cement’s “buy” rating. Taking into account the impact of the epidemic and the pressure on raw material costs, the EPS forecast for 2022-23 is adjusted to HK$1.04/1.27, and the EPS forecast for 2024 is increased by HK$1.45. 8xPE, with a target price of HK$8. The sharp rise in coal costs in 2021 will have a certain impact on the company’s profitability. However, the dual control of energy consumption in the four seasons has led to a contraction in supply. The price of cement has risen significantly, and the profitability has been improved to a certain extent. Under the disturbance of the epidemic in 2022, the importance of stable growth of infrastructure has further increased, which will provide certain support for subsequent cement demand. Profits are expected to remain relatively stable, and the current valuation is at a low level.

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