Many years ago, there was a topic on the website, which investor on Snowball is you willing to marry your daughter to? A golfer replied: There is one, @Daniel Book Iron Ticket , I have never seen him talk about others, who he has torn with, and he never brags when his net worth is high. I always believe that character comes first.
This year, Iron Coupon No. 1 $danshu Iron Coupon No. 1 (P000586)$ quietly appeared at the top of the Snowball Private Equity List. While many subjective bulls were still “struggling” at the early warning liquidation line, it achieved double-digit returns. The achievements are proud. But behind such a dazzling performance, what many people may not know is that in 2020, he was also under pressure because his net worth significantly underperformed the market.
After the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the market prefers prosperity and track stocks. For Dan Shu, who insists on low valuation and certainty , 2020 is obviously a difficult journey. In addition, the allocation of Hong Kong stocks and some high-prosperity companies have encountered black swans, and the market style and luck are not related.
At that time, the comments on the product page of Iron Voucher No. 1 were full of questions like: “Is the fund manager replaced?”, “Is the time-travelling man gone?”, but in fact, Dan Shu has never changed. , whether before the private placement, in 2020, or now.
I once heard the phrase “a fund manager is always in the middle of being over-acclaimed and under-deprecating”, and I think this applies to Dan Shu very well. Many people are used to using only one number to measure a fund manager. Maybe you thought he was bad two years ago and now think he is very good, but in fact he has not changed.
Dan Shu believes that there are no good or bad investment methods, and the one that suits you is the best. When the market style is not on your side, the most difficult thing is to be determined, and this also depends on whether you have a deep enough understanding of the stocks you buy, so that even if the stock price falls to the bottom, you can still stick to it. .
You can find a lot of posts about Danshu on Snowball, and Feng Yunjun has sorted them out, which may give you a better understanding of such a fund manager who “does not chase hot spots and bubbles, and can endure loneliness”.
1. Interview with Snowball Private Equity Danshu
Some of the coal companies we have allocated have low market attention, but we believe that coal will still be China’s main energy source for a long time in the future, but the business is not very sexy. The market classifies them as sunset industries and gives them a very low valuation. I think investment should be based on national conditions, less sentimental and more realistic.
2. Exchange of some issues about the iron bond fund
Most of the tickets that made a lot of money were those who bought tepid tickets, turned back three times, and shyly wanted to rise and fall. As a left-hand trader, the stock does not rise but has the opportunity to buy calmly. In the process of long-term tracking, you can fully understand the target you hold. Therefore, it is also easy to focus firepower to establish enough positions. Going slowly will always make you feel that the price is lower than the value, and make you continue to firm up your beliefs. At this time, time becomes your friend and the snowball will get bigger and bigger.
3. Iron Bond Fund & Investment Philosophy
There are a lot of hard things in investing. It is not easy to find a growth stock with a low valuation; it is also difficult to find a stock that can hold after a slump; it is even more difficult to still hold a position after a sharp rise. This requires not only long-term tracking and in-depth understanding of the enterprise, but also a forward-looking understanding of the industry, while overcoming human fear and greed. Sometimes it takes a little luck and a constant recharge of faith. Only by sticking to your heart can you get the sea of stars.
4. 2021 Investment Summary & 2022 Outlook
We advocate long-term investment, value investment, not sell if you die. Just like the private housing enterprises in the second half of the year, the once successful magic weapon of “fast turnover, high debt, and high land reserve” has become a negative teaching material. The turnover is slow, and the cost of capital cannot come down; the market has introduced better land, and the general land reserve has become a hot potato. The overall market environment has changed, and making the decision to close a position is not difficult. Although a lot of chicken blood has been beaten and a large amount of dopamine has been secreted, the market environment has really changed, and the logic of survival has changed. What can’t be sold?
The investment strategy of Iron Notes No. 1 focuses on finding targets with low valuations and certainty , holding good and cheap assets (measured by discounted future cash flow), and adopting a strategy of swapping stocks with full positions and moderate dispersion . The company believes that there are very few great companies in the market, the risk is rising, and the value is falling, so the position will be “the more it rises and the more dispersed, the more it falls, the more concentrated.”
6. Golfer’s point of view 1: The fifth of several snowball private equity funds I pay attention to
Danshu Tiequan (real name Chen Juntao), the manager of Tiequan No. 1 Fund, came into my field of vision when he gave a speech on “Asset Allocation in the Post-Real Estate Era” at the 2018 Shanghai Snowball Forum. His speech theory has a certain reference value for asset allocation and securities investment. In addition, his columns on investment in hard assets (airports, ports, water supply, electricity, etc.), sunset industries, and state-owned enterprise reform are very advanced. I noticed that he came from an industrial background and also issued private equity funds, and I followed him for more than a year.
7. Golfer’s point of view 2: Why is the iron coupon of Danshu, once known as the “traveling man” not working? (This article was published in 2020, which was the most difficult time for Iron Voucher No. 1)
When a fund has consistently underperformed benchmarks for a period of time, there are only two possibilities. One is that the strategy is permanently invalid. If it is judged that this situation occurs, of course, the earlier the stop loss, the better. The other is that the strategy is still valid in the long term, but it does not conform to the current market style in the short term. In this case, you can make flexible choices based on your investment period and risk appetite. Therefore, it is important to determine what kind of situation has occurred.
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