Everyone knows that I have always been optimistic about Haikong, but I only do range trading, I am lucky, I have caught several bands well, and the holding period of each time is no more than two months.
There are several reasons for not long positions:
One is that I took his brother’s position in COSCO SHIPPING (02866)$ which was too heavy. This was a ticket that made me sad. Although there was some profit and the big drop was avoided, I exchanged the 00716 Shengshi container before the dividend. Yes, the shipping price is slightly higher than the current price, but the dividend per share is less than 40%. Haifa must have a future, I firmly believe, so it does not move like a mountain.
The second is that there are too many things to track in Haikong’s reports and fundamentals. I am a relatively lazy person, so I have not conducted in-depth quantitative analysis of Haikong, but only rough qualitative judgments, so I only dare to do it when I am emotionally low. Speculate and flee after a certain profit. From the results, the previous operation is relatively successful.
The third is that before Haikong’s half-year results, it was actually impossible to judge whether the low profit was hidden or whether the management was running and leaking. The so-called positive impact of long-term contracts on profits has not been confirmed.
At the end of last month, I built some speculative positions at the low point of 01919. I bravely blocked the hole that day, and a large order was placed in seconds, and it made an intraday low, but the closing price did not follow. It’s lower than my buying price, and it’s a bargain. The results came out the day before yesterday, I thought A shares at least a few boards, H at least more than 10%, but I was wrong, the market actually gave a chance, so I finished the remaining bullets yesterday, and decided to start a long position in COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, until the institution started Heavy warehouse.
The reasons are as follows:
1. The long-term contract began to take effect, and the profit continued to grow rapidly under the circumstances that the spot freight rate began to plummet, the freight volume fell, and the Shenzhen and Shanghai epidemics were blocked.
2. Under the circumstance of decreasing cargo volume, all alliances will stop sailing at the same time to ensure the loading rate, which shows that the alliance is more stable than everyone imagined. If you don’t sail, there will be no variable costs. Everyone knows what to do, and we will share the great era of shipping.
3. Except for Yixing’s idiot, all the others have huge amounts of cash. This huge amount of cash can actually be compared to nuclear weapons, you can not use it, but you can’t do it. When everyone has a huge amount of cash, no one can launch a price war to kill their opponents. It can be said that all the damn shipping companies are dead. Now this pile of all-you-can-eat people is willing to come out and kill them. Therefore, there is no way for COSCO SHIPPING Holdings to distribute large dividends from its profits last year. Some people have never been in business, have never learned strategy, and are blind to BB. They really paid dividends, and the market is different.
4. The freight forwarding has been reversed this year. When Haikong pulled up last year, many freight forwarders were buying it, just like Maotai, $Pien Tze Huang (SH600436)$ and Jiuguijiu. This year, the freight forwarder will not work, and there must be many people who have no money to sell stocks. This is also an important reason why the stock price cannot rise. But there is no middleman who makes the difference, and everyone understands the result. In fact, the big background is that the entire shipping business process has been simplified electronically. Shipping companies can easily serve direct customers. When I raised the issue of the freight forwarder being dried up last year, there was a freight forwarder who refuted it. I don’t know if he is okay this year.
5. New ships and new entrants, new ships have not always been a problem. In recent years, the entire shipping industry has been overloaded. Bulk carriers have come to support them across the border, but what should be demolished is still to be demolished. Speeding still needs to be slowed down, crew members who are not on vacation also need to take vacations, and major repairs and maintenance, desulfurization, installation of sails, etc. have to be arranged, and a bunch of ships that are not in line with environmental protection have to retire. As for the new entrants, there are no new entrants even if the stock has not risen. They are all less than 1PB, and they are all historical costs. How expensive is it for you to build your own ship? How long is the shipbuilding schedule? do you have a dock? What is the new entry, isn’t it fragrant to buy 1919 stocks directly?
I’ve placed a bet that the market is always right, and if it isn’t, just wait. $COSCO SHIPPING Holdings(SH601919)$
Chinese institutions are accustomed to zero-sum games, predicting your predictions. Just like what Han Jun hinted yesterday, don’t you look at the valuation? The current 1919 valuation is inexplicable no matter which system is used. New energy can be valued hundreds of times and thousands of times. Are they really growing better than these stocks in the old economy? Find out about Goldwind Technology and look at the annual K line of Ya. There are also Wuxi Suntech, Hanergy, Yingli, LDK. . . . This year’s epidemic is like this, what will happen to those subsidies?
A Chinese institution’s track thinking can be compared like this. A child is born with 50CM, 3 years old is 100CM, and doubled in 3 years, so after 30 years, it can grow to 1KM, so now 2 meters 26 Haikong is not tall, and Maybe Haikong will fight and break his leg in the back.
However, I believe that institutions will still build large-scale warehouses and Haikong, and the reasons are their own.
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