“Doctor Doom”: The world economy has reached an unprecedented intersection

Roubini became famous because he predicted the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, and was dubbed “Doctor Doom” by the media. In 2010, he warned of the Greek debt crisis, and a “tortoise and the hare” between China and India consolidated his sharp insight. In recent days, Roubini, the doctor of doom, once again issued a warning, which has attracted the attention of the public.

It is true that the large-scale release of water during the epidemic in European and American countries has pushed up global inflation, and the Fed’s aggressive water-reduction action has brought the capital market into a slump this year. But in addition to the United States, there are other economies in this world. For example, China has stabilized and did not take monetary measures such as flooding during the epidemic.

Therefore, even if the economy further declines in 2023, countries represented by China can still handle their currencies with ease. And Europe and other regimes are not blind, so in the past month we have clearly found that France, Germany and even Australia have closely interacted with China. There may be a considerable recession in the United States, but in the current world situation, the US economy will not cause more serious trauma to the world than in 2008.

As for the Russia-Ukraine war, it is very likely that it will end in the first half of next year. On the one hand, Europe has been bloodletted too much this year, and the motivation to continue supporting the war has weakened. On the other hand, if the domestic economy of the United States is sluggish, even if the Biden administration hopes to continue blood transfusions into Ukraine, it will cause strong domestic opposition, which will not be conducive to Biden’s re-election in 2024. Of course, the most important thing is that no one really wants to start a three-war war, especially Russia, which was dragged into the quagmire by Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine now just need to find a step down piece by piece, while China just laid down a piece on the 21st of this month.

Finally, is Roubini always right? it’s not true. For example, he predicted in June 2011 that China would encounter a hard economic landing after 2013, and he was slapped in the face on this matter.