I have analyzed the countermeasures before Yi Fund Da Linsen resigned from the public offering and ran away. The conclusion at the time was: because the new fund manager did not have much historical performance to refer to, he was skeptical about whether the new fund manager could continue the previous performance. For details, please refer to the previous article: Answering two key questions after Lin Sen left .
From 2022-05-07, Lin Sen resigned and it is almost April. Now let’s review whether the analysis at that time is correct. The two products analyzed are: E Fund Ruicheng A and E Fund Safe Feedback.
E Fund Reach A
Lin Sen resigned on 2022-05-07, and Jia Jian took over directly without any management intersection.
If you want to judge whether the performance of the fund manager is better before and after the change, a very simple and simple idea is to compare the following two situations:
A: The firm management performance of the fund manager after adjustment;
B: Assuming there is no adjustment, the performance managed by the original fund manager;
If A exceeds B, it means that the new fund manager is doing better, and vice versa. But obviously B does not exist in practice, so we need to consider finding a benchmark to replace B. What I consider is the 30 funds with the lowest deviation from the fund’s return during the period from 2021-01-01 to 2022-03-31, to construct a virtual equal-weight performance curve as a substitute for case B. The fund manager only announced his resignation on 2022-05-07. Maybe earlier, the new fund manager began to adjust positions, so the time was moved forward a little.
Judging from the cumulative rate of return, the virtual equal-weight performance curve constructed is basically consistent with the cumulative rate of return of E Fund.
From the perspective of performance evaluation indicators, E Fund Ruicheng A slightly underperformed the virtual equal-weight performance curve, with an annualized rate of about 3.7%.
After having this foundation, consider the performance comparison of the whole range.
Judging from the cumulative rate of return, the management performance of the new fund manager Jia Jian can significantly outperform the virtual equal-weight performance curve constructed before.
Although there will be a certain error in replacing the original fund manager’s management level with the equal-weight performance curve, the margin of outperformance should exceed the range of error. However, it should be noted that after the change, the product’s return volatility and maximum drawdown also increased, indicating that the new fund manager may have a certain style drift.
Position Analysis
The above is to observe the difference before and after the change from the perspective of equity analysis, and the following is to analyze from the perspective of holding positions.
First of all, the shareholding concentration of the top ten heavyweight stocks is not high, less than 50% before, so the top ten heavyweight stocks announced in the quarterly report are of little reference, and it is best to observe all positions in the interim and annual reports.
However, from the perspective of heavy holding stocks, in the second quarter after the change of fund managers, there was a relatively obvious adjustment of positions, and the positions in the photovoltaic industry were more concentrated.
From the perspective of all positions, compared with the annual report of the previous year, it is more concentrated in the manufacturing industry, and in the cycle, infrastructure and real estate industries have significantly reduced their positions.
From the perspective of CITIC’s primary industry, the positions are concentrated in power equipment and new energy, machinery and electronics.
The industries that previously held positions were relatively balanced, but the new fund managers are more inclined to add new energy. The corresponding position style has also changed significantly. The situation is even more serious,
From the position style, it is more inclined to the growth style, and the dividend yield and profitability, the solvency has dropped significantly.
We can construct a simulated portfolio based on all positions held in the interim report and annual report, assuming that the position remains unchanged, to reflect the performance of the fund manager assuming that the fund manager does not take any action in the middle. By comparing the return rate of fund returns with the return rate of the simulated portfolio, we can observe the active management of the fund manager in the time period when the annual report and the interim report are published. From the perspective of the excess return of the fund’s return relative to the simulated portfolio, after the change of the fund manager, there will be a certain amount of position adjustment, and the excess return will fluctuate to a certain extent, but the fluctuation range is not large and not particularly violent, so the fund manager The rhythm of the repositioning rhythm is well controlled.
E Fund gives back with peace of mind
E Fund Anxiety Feedback This product is not the same as E Fund Ruicheng, in which the fund manager Lin Hu participated in the management of the fund before Lin Sen left, and it belonged to the dual fund manager system before. That is, between 2021-09-08 and 2021-05-07, which fund manager participated in the fund investment is uncertain.
Referring to the previous ideas, from 2021-03-01 to 2022-03-31, the fund’s return rate is higher than the virtual equal-weight performance curve, with a slight excess return.
If viewed separately, before the change, there was a certain excess return, but after the change it was a negative excess return. However, this change is not very large, and considering the possible errors in the estimation process, it is impossible to conclude that the performance of the new fund manager must be worse than that of the previous fund manager.
Position Analysis
From the perspective of the top ten heavyweight stocks, the concentration of the top ten heavyweight stocks is not high, so it is reasonable to refer to all positions in the interim and annual reports.
Judging from the changes in holdings in the second quarter, it does not seem to be a particularly good choice to add positions to Midea and China Merchants Bank. Positions in the second quarter were relatively more balanced.
Judging from all the positions in the Central Report and Annual Report, it is still mainly concentrated in the manufacturing industry. Among them, infrastructure and real estate have significantly reduced their positions and increased to the financial industry (mainly China Merchants Bank). The weight of other industries has not changed much.
From the perspective of CITIC’s first-tier industry, there have been some adjustments within the industry. Automobiles have reduced their positions, power equipment and new energy have increased their positions, home appliances (Midea Group) have increased their positions, and banks (China Merchants Bank) have increased their positions.
From the perspective of the style of holding positions, the profitability is weakened, and the growth ability and expected growth ability are slightly enhanced. After the adjustment, it is more inclined to the growth style.
Because the proportion of E Fund Security Rewards bond positions is relatively high, and all bond positions are not announced, the simulated combination calculated based on all positions announced in the interim report and annual report will have a relatively large error.
summary
From the above analysis, for E Fund Ruicheng A, the new fund manager Jia Jian has created better performance. For E Fund’s reassuring feedback, although the performance slightly underperformed the constructed equal-weighted performance curve, considering the estimation error, only It can be said that the performance of the new fund manager is not inferior to that of the original fund manager. From this conclusion, my previous doubts are broken. The new fund manager is not as “weak” as imagined.
The change of public fund managers is a relatively common phenomenon, especially now that the salary limit of public fundraising is strict, and it is estimated that there will only be more excellent fund managers “running away” in the future. Therefore, how to deal with the uncertainty brought about by changes in fund managers is a very worthy question. Personally, I don’t think this is a huge problem, and there are many ways to deal with this uncertainty.
First, from the perspective of asset allocation, reducing the holding ratio of a single fund can avoid the impact of a single fund on the entire investment portfolio;
Secondly, there are currently a lot of public funds. After the fund manager is changed, similar funds can be considered for replacement. This similarity can be in the dimensions of net worth, position, style and management philosophy. At present, there are thousands of public funds, many of which are interchangeable;
Again, even if it is irreplaceable, the performance of the new fund manager may not be worse than the original fund manager, or even better. This is related to the overall talent training mechanism and echelon of fund companies, especially large companies have stronger advantages in this regard. In addition to the above-mentioned Yi Fangda Ruicheng, the previous Bank of Communications Advanced Manufacturing, Liu Peng succeeded Ren Xiangdong, Bank of Communications Trend Priority, Yang Jinjin succeeded Han Weijun, these are similar cases. However, it is also possible that after the fund manager changes, the positions and styles of the new fund manager will drift to a certain extent, which needs to be monitored and paid attention to.
Combining the above three methods can minimize the impact of fund manager changes on the investment portfolio.
At this point, the full text is over, thank you for reading.
If you find any mistakes or omissions in my analysis, your corrections and additions are welcome.
The above content is only used as a personal investment analysis record, and only represents personal opinions. The analysis content is based on historical data. Historical performance does not indicate its future performance. It does not serve as a basis for buying and selling, and does not constitute investment advice.
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