Original link: https://headsalon.org/archives/9049.html
【2022-02-06】
@whigzhou: I watched Don’t Look Up two days ago. Not only was the movie not well shot (my comment on Petal: All the points I wanted to show were enlarged ten times, I’m afraid the audience won’t get it. Use acting The method of making a movie with a sketch, scratching your armpit hard, but it’s not funny), and the meaning that the screenwriter wants to express is also very unreliable, and it is very low-level and unreliable,
I’ll just say something casually,
1) Cataclysmic prophecies have always been very popular, and there is no shortage of listeners and microphones. It has been like this since ancient times.
2) The media and politicians are especially keen on this, and this is an excellent opportunity for them to attract attention, mobilize the crowd, grab power, sell private goods…,
3) Some (probably most) cataclysmic prophecies end up being joked, entertained, or forgotten, but these are not early reactions, but heard too much *wolf is coming* and never seen Psychological adjustment after being a wolf,
4) Note that this is not just a question of whether people believe in this prophecy rationally, but a kind of psychological adjustment, because people cannot live in fear forever, since the disaster you mentioned never comes, no matter you Right or wrong, anyway, I can’t go on like this, or I’m going crazy,
5) So the kind of situation that the screenwriter complained about, in reality, can only be the result of crying wolf too much, not the early reaction he showed, which is very strange.
6) According to many people, this film is alluding to warm balls, so it is even more true. Is the warm ball problem occupying the microphone and attracting attention, is it still relatively small? Politicians rely on this prophecy to seize new power, and interest groups rely on this prophecy to earn money, isn’t it still small? Now being forgotten, ignored, and treated as entertainment is the result of years of wolves grinding their ears. The general public has long been bored, and there is no real movement.
7) One of the core complaints of the film is that even if the scientific community has reached a consensus on the prospect of catastrophe, politicians who only care about election gains and losses, entertainment media, greedy capitalists, and brainwashed masses will still prevent necessary rescue actions— —The question is, to what extent does this narrative correspond to any real-life case? In my opinion, there is none, of course, I am not saying that there will be no possibility in the future, but so far, there has not been one,
8) Let me take a warm-ball example, let me take a step back and assume that the IPCC report does reflect the consensus of the scientific community. What is this consensus? Isn’t it that the average temperature will rise by a few degrees in the next hundred years, and the sea level may rise by a few meters or more than ten or twenty meters? This is not a catastrophe at all. Climate changes of this magnitude have repeatedly occurred in the past hundreds of thousands of years, but on a scale of millions of years, it is simply a piece of cake. , Swinging up is always a good thing, and swinging down is a bad thing. It is the media/politicians/interest groups who have rendered it a catastrophe.
9) Of course, no matter the media, politicians, or interest groups, they have never been and will not be monolithic. Whether a certain media, a certain politician, or a certain interest group regards a certain catastrophe prophecy as their own opportunity, or One’s own catastrophe depends on their existing resource mix and market positioning. Therefore, although the media and politicians generally welcome catastrophe theory, it is not so sure whether a specific politician welcomes a specific catastrophe theory. , there are also problems with his personal judgment and adjustment ability. Some people can always adjust their strategies in time to turn disasters into opportunities.
10) Therefore, in any case, as long as a catastrophe theory has a minimum ability to spread, it will not be ignored by all forces. There will always be people who try to use it, and this is the most unreliable part of this film. Can’t you see When it comes to the contest between multiple forces, only a small group of prophets and scientists are challenging the entire dull world. Where is the Congress? Where are the factions of the two parties? Where is the contest between the various departments of the executive branch? Where are the various opposing lobbies? Where are the think tanks? Where are the independent bloggers?
A single presidential donor can influence such a big thing? joke
@whigzhou: Let’s do a thought experiment, what would it look like if this happened in reality?
I just thought of a few points, you can try too,
1) The fastest response is of course the stock market. As soon as the news came out, before the verification by other astronomers, aerospace concept stocks rose sharply, because there is a high probability that any intervention plan will need to launch something, and it will not be Small things may have to be distributed in large piles, and then this round of growth will continue to push upstream along the supply chain.
2) Next, a bunch of business people will jump out of bed, because everyone knows that big money is going to be thrown from the sky, just think, save the earth from the imminent and certain disaster! What Congress would sting on such a thing? How much money is raining, the key is, how much of it can fall on my head? At this moment, the minds of all businessmen are spinning fast. Where should I stand to have the greatest chance of getting the most money on my head?
3) Investment and lobbying activities will start immediately, and as more and more astronomers confirm this prediction, more and more people will participate in investment and lobbying activities, those with calmer minds and bigger pockets, Possibly also pays for independent experts to assess the reliability of the prophecy,
4) Once the trend blows, other potential stakeholders will also squeeze in, because such a big rain of money will not only fall on the production system, but will overflow to the surrounding fields, such as universities, think tanks, consultants, and lawyers , activists, politicians, all have the opportunity to make a fortune, whether it is money, prestige, honor, power, or a sense of accomplishment,
5) Of course, there will also be negative opportunities. While any catastrophe prophecy creates a rescue ecological niche, it will also create a corresponding opposing ecological niche, which may be called a soothing ecological niche, that is, to eat The food of the prophesied people, this ecological niche can also be very prosperous, supporting many people,
6) In an open society, these two kinds of competition – competition within the same ecological niche, and competition between two ecological niches – will be carried out under various market mechanisms, and you cannot only hear one Sound, unless you choose to plug your ears,
Do you think the media that entertains to death can hold back this wave? Isn’t their boss a businessman, why is he so stupid not to think about how much money can be thrown at him?
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