A question was asked recently: Will electric vehicles completely replace gasoline vehicles in the future? almost all? Is this the case globally? Although I am very convinced that electric vehicles will gradually replace fuel vehicles and become the mainstream, I still do not dare to directly give a positive answer to the above questions. I have carefully thought and analyzed the following and shared them with you.
1. The general trend of energy development in human society
Human society has been developing for hundreds of thousands of years and has been advancing in the direction of more efficient energy utilization. From drilling wood to make fire to the availability of electricity, energy utilization has gradually changed from the direct combustion of traditional fossil energy (oil, coal, natural gas). For electricity production and reuse , the former is the direct use of primary energy, with high efficiency and low cost, such as burning natural gas for heating, burning coal to heat food, burning gasoline to drive cars, while the latter is the reuse of secondary energy, centralized production and distribution In addition to the above three main scenarios, it also has more diverse usage scenarios, such as air-conditioning refrigeration, air dryers, etc., which cannot be achieved by the direct utilization of primary energy.
In addition, fossil energy is not renewable and will be depleted within a limited time at the current consumption rate. At the same time, the greenhouse effect brought about by its direct combustion aggravates climate change and destroys the earth’s ecology. Facing the potential energy crisis, human beings are alleviating their dependence on fossil energy by accelerating the utilization of renewable and clean energy such as water, wind and photovoltaics. These clean energy can also be easily converted into electricity.
Therefore, the ongoing energy revolution in human society is unfolding simultaneously in two dimensions : the revolution of energy utilization: the transition from primary energy to secondary energy ; the revolution of energy sources: the transition from fossil energy to renewable and clean energy .
2. Changes in the form of vehicle power
In fact, electric vehicles are not new. They have appeared as early as the end of the 19th century , that is, they were invented in the early days of the application of electricity. Although the control and use of electricity were not mature at that time, it did not prevent the inventors from immediately thinking about it. Electricity can be used to drive the vehicle. At the same time, fuel vehicles were also in the early era of external combustion engines, which were also immature. According to the survey in 1900, among the 4,200 cars sold in Europe and the United States, 40% were steam locomotives, 38% were electric cars, and the remaining 22% were fuel cars. At that time, the mainstream energy utilization method was steam. Steam engines used coal or oil to heat water to generate steam to drive vehicles, which was more inefficient; fuel vehicles used external combustion engines, which were noisy and black smoke, and the user experience was extremely poor; electric vehicles were quiet. A lot, but battery capacity was limited and charging was inconvenient, and even so, it was briefly ahead of gasoline-powered vehicles during that period. In the 1930s, thanks to the development of oil extraction technology and internal combustion engine technology, as well as the improvement of production and manufacturing technology , fuel vehicles officially moved to the center of the stage, while electric vehicles were limited by backward battery technology and lack of power grids and did not have the conditions for promotion. gradually forgotten.
After a century of development, especially the popularization of electric power applications , human society gradually has the conditions for the development of electric vehicles. At the same time, the disadvantages of fossil energy (pollution and non-renewability) are becoming more and more obvious , prompting more companies to start. Turn to the development and manufacture of electric vehicles.
In a certain sense, electric vehicles are slowly returning to their rightful positions after a century of dormancy , rather than replacing fuel vehicles, because electric vehicles inherently have the advantages of being quiet, linear and direct in power output over fuel vehicles. People really like the roar of the engine, it’s just a habit developed in the past hundred years, and the shape of the fuel car is not inherently orthodox . From a longer time perspective, it is more like a temporary plan for a period of time. An internal combustion engine that temporarily burns gasoline and then outputs power is not advanced by any means. Compared to this, the current electric cars, with their clean chassis and simple front cabin, are more technologically advanced.
3. There are huge differences in the energy structure of various countries, resulting in different attitudes towards electric vehicles
After fully understanding the above two macro logics, the return of electric vehicles to the mainstream seems to be irresistible. However, in the real society, different countries have shown very different attitudes towards the development of electric vehicles. The root of the differences comes from their different energy structures.
As secondary energy, electricity can be converted from traditional primary fossil energy (coal, oil, natural gas) combustion, which is the so-called thermal power generation, or from clean energy (hydropower, wind power, photovoltaic) and atomic energy (nuclear power) As a result, it has great flexibility, and each country is making use of its own energy advantages and disadvantages to make layouts and realize power transformation.
The following table shows the electricity composition of major countries in the world:
China is a country with more coal and less oil. Excessive dependence on oil in economic life will hinder economic development. China’s resource endowment determines the urgency of comprehensive power transformation in the whole society. China’s oil relies heavily on imports. In addition to meeting the needs of industrial production, a large part of the imported oil is used to drive cars. Relatively speaking, China has sufficient coal reserves. Converting coal into electricity and then driving cars by electricity is a very good idea. strategy . As for wind power, photovoltaics, and hydropower, which are vigorously developed to cope with climate change, they will also reduce the cost of electric vehicles in disguise. After all, energy will naturally be cheaper when there is inexhaustible supply.
The United States has large reserves of coal and natural gas, and as the number one developed country, the United States has a very high level of science and technology .
Germany has considerable coal resources, but almost all of its oil and natural gas is imported. In the current crisis in Russia and Ukraine, the disadvantages of over-reliance on energy have become more deeply felt, which makes its desire to switch to renewable, cheap and clean energy more urgent. In the power structure, clean energy has accounted for a large proportion, so the transformation to electric vehicles is also imperative .
Both Russia and Saudi Arabia are big energy countries, and both have abundant oil, natural gas, and coal. In their power structure, thermal power accounts for a relatively high proportion, especially in Saudi Arabia, which is almost 100%. It is worth mentioning that its oil is used as a combustion product. The proportion has reached 41%. In fact, the main thermal power combustion products are concentrated in coal and natural gas, and direct combustion of oil is not common. For a country like Saudi Arabia, there seems to be no difference between the two methods of generating electricity and then supplying electric vehicles, or turning oil into gasoline and then burning it in the car. Therefore, the development of electric vehicles may or may not be done , but from another perspective, at least there is no disadvantage. , if you consider the longer-term future: the exhaustion of fossil energy and the cheapness of clean energy, electric vehicles still have certain advantages .
Japan ‘s energy is extremely scarce, and oil and natural gas are heavily dependent on imports. Before 2010, its vigorously developed nuclear power occupied a large share. However, after the Fukushima nuclear accident, the proportion of nuclear power decreased, and electricity was dependent on natural gas and coal. Generally speaking, both fuel vehicles and electric vehicles have high cost of use. It seems that the development of electric vehicles does not have any special benefits . Considering that there are few people in Japan and the number of vehicles is large, if all of them are converted to electric vehicles, it will consume more energy. 37% of the existing grid (see the table below), forming a great impact. As a result, Japan ‘s attitude towards the development of electric vehicles has not been positive .
Note: The calculation basis of the power demand in the above table is that each vehicle travels an average of 20,000km a year, and the power consumption per 100km is 15kwh.
4. Electricity price VS oil price, the use cost of electric vehicles has the advantage of rolling
The following table shows the household electricity prices and gasoline prices in major countries in the world ( data source GlobalPetrolPrices.com ), and at the same time, according to the electricity consumption of electric vehicles 15kwh per 100 kilometers, and the fuel consumption of fuel vehicles 7L per 100 kilometers, the use costs are compared.
The cost of electric vehicle driving in almost all countries is lower than the cost of gasoline driving , even in major fossil energy countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia. At first glance, this may seem inconsistent with our perception, but it is not surprising when you think about it: For the traditional primary fossil energy reserves, Saudi Arabia, Russia, they do have unparalleled crude oil reserves, but from crude oil to gasoline to drive cars. , still have to go through a series of industrialization, so that the corresponding domestic gasoline price is not as low as everyone subconsciously thinks, or their energy advantage is more reflected in the abundance of quantity rather than the low price . At the same time, these oil-rich countries are also rich in natural gas and coal reserves, and the low prices of raw materials for thermal power generation have led to relatively low domestic electricity prices.
For Germany, the current Russian-Ukrainian crisis has caused soaring electricity prices, and the cost of using electric vehicles is basically the same as the cost of using fuel vehicles. The data of this extreme situation also supports the following thesis: under normal living conditions , the cost of using electric vehicles is significantly lower than the cost of using fuel vehicles .
In the future trend, the addition of cheap and clean energy can continue to drive down electricity prices, but the non-renewable fossil energy makes it impossible for gasoline prices to be lower .
5. User experience + purchase cost parity will completely announce the end of fuel vehicles
If you consider the user experience of electric vehicles, the advantages of electric vehicles over fuel vehicles are even more obvious. This was accepted by users more than a hundred years ago. At that time, it was only the feeling of driving: quiet driving, smooth power, power Directly, today’s Internet, the popularity of electronic equipment and the future of automatic driving have all added too many functions to electric vehicles that fuel vehicles do not have. In a certain sense, the relationship between electric vehicles and fuel vehicles is not a function replacement, but a new Dimensionality reduction of species .
As for the parity of the purchase cost, it has not been achieved for the time being, but it is relatively close. With the development of the global electric vehicle industry and the achievement of economies of scale, the purchase parity will not be far away . Once realized, it will be the end of fuel vehicles.
6. A little challenge
The biggest challenge comes from the impact on the power grid after switching to electric vehicles. For China, the proportion of 12% is still acceptable. The challenge is mainly reflected in the impact of the relatively backward electricity configuration, but this can be solved. question. After Japan fully realizes electrification, it will face an incremental power demand of 37%, which will require a long period of grid expansion to cope.
————————————-
Write at the end:
Now to formally answer the first question:
In the future, electric vehicles will completely replace gasoline vehicles! Almost all! Globally!
The transformation of fuel vehicles to electric vehicles is not the subversion of the predecessors by the latecomers, but the return of the king . It is an inevitable direction for mankind to transform towards more efficient, cheaper, cleaner and sustainable energy, and it is an inevitable direction for mankind as a species to move forward.
There are 48 discussions on this topic in Snowball, click to view.
Snowball is an investor’s social network, and smart investors are here.
Click to download Snowball mobile client http://xueqiu.com/xz ]]>
This article is reproduced from: http://xueqiu.com/9461130401/232374776
This site is for inclusion only, and the copyright belongs to the original author.