core point
The United States has increased restrictions on the domestic chip industry, forcing the localization of upstream links to accelerate. On October 7, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) announced a series of new broader export control regulations, extending semiconductor manufacturing restrictions to DRAM chips of 18nm or less, NAND flash memory chips of 128 layers or more, and 14nm or smaller logic chips. We believe that although this move will have a negative impact on the short-term capacity expansion of domestic storage and advanced logic processes, it will force domestic fabs to accelerate the pace of verification and introduction of domestic equipment, materials, and components, and the localization of semiconductor upstream links will continue to accelerate. .
Semiconductor equipment components have high barriers and wide space, and the global market space exceeds 50 billion US dollars. Semiconductor equipment parts are in the upstream position in the semiconductor industry chain, and their direct downstream includes semiconductor equipment manufacturers and fabs: semiconductor equipment manufacturers purchase parts for the production of semiconductor equipment, and parts purchased by global semiconductor manufacturers are usually used as consumables or spare parts. On the direct purchase side of equipment manufacturers, we assume that the average gross profit margin of equipment manufacturers is 50%, and the direct materials of front-end equipment account for about 90%, then the global demand for components from semiconductor equipment manufacturers is 46.2 billion US dollars (global semiconductor equipment market size × equipment Manufacturer’s cost ratio × direct material cost ratio), the demand for components from semiconductor equipment manufacturers in mainland China is 13.3 billion US dollars; the procurement side of fabs, based on wafer output, the procurement of components from fabs in mainland China is about 13.3 billion US dollars. US$100 million in global fab parts procurement. Taken together, the global/Chinese market space for semiconductor equipment parts is US$56.2/14.6 billion.
The localization of semiconductor equipment parts and components has a broad space, and the rise of domestic equipment factories has accelerated the localization of parts and components. From the perspective of subdivisions, the localization rate of components such as quartz, sprinkler heads, and edge rings is only over 10%, and the localization rate of components such as RF generators and MFCs is 1%-5%. The localization rate of parts such as chucks and measuring instruments is less than 1%, and there is a large space for domestic substitution. In recent years, the proportion of domestic fabs purchasing domestic equipment has continued to increase rapidly, and domestic equipment manufacturers have also increased the purchase of domestic components. Under the double catalysis, domestic semiconductor equipment component manufacturers have ushered in a golden period of development. We continue to be optimistic about domestic semiconductor equipment components. Manufacturer-related business performance flexibility.
The downstream supply chain security demands superimpose local advantages and cost advantages, and domestic component manufacturers have sufficient growth momentum. At present, domestic equipment parts manufacturers have relatively few product lines, and most manufacturers focus on one or two sub-sectors. In the future, domestic manufacturers will benefit from the increase in the share of existing products in the client, and on the other hand, will also Continue to benefit from the development of product lines. The above growth logic is smooth, not only benefiting from the strong demand for supply chain security of downstream customers, but also benefiting from the local advantages and cost advantages of domestic manufacturers: For domestic equipment manufacturers and overseas companies’ production lines in the mainland, on the one hand, because domestic component manufacturers are close to The terminal market is convenient for parts repair, and the delivery cycle is easy to control; on the other hand, domestic parts manufacturers have certain advantages in cost due to factors such as freight costs and tariffs. Further cut into the domestic production line supply chain.
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