core point of view
The new type of energy storage is ready to go, and it will grow at a high speed in the future. Due to the randomness and volatility of renewable energy and the mismatch between electricity loads, a large amount of energy storage is required to undertake the functions of peak-shaving and valley-filling, and time-space conversion. Traditional pumped storage has many limitations, and new energy storage is expected to usher in rapid growth. In the “White Paper on Energy Storage Industry Research 2022”, according to conservative and optimistic scenarios, the cumulative scale of new energy storage in my country in 2026 will reach 48.5 and 79.5GW respectively, and the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2022 to 2026 will be 53.3 %, 69.2%.
Sodium battery: The cost advantage is significant, and the battery and negative electrode hard carbon are given priority. According to Hu Yongsheng’s “Na-ion battery energy storage technology and economic analysis” data, considering the power loss, the upper limit of the cost of electricity per unit of sodium battery is 52.2% lower than that of lead-acid batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary lithium batteries. 32.4%, 54.3%. The economic advantages of sodium batteries make them widely used in A00 passenger cars, two-wheeled electric vehicles, and energy storage. According to the calculation of elasticity, the battery and negative electrode hard carbon links are given priority.
Vanadium battery: The industry is developing rapidly, and the electrolyte and proton exchange membrane are optimistic. Electrolyte: 1GWh vanadium battery consumes about 8000 tons of vanadium pentoxide. We predict that the demand for vanadium pentoxide driven by vanadium batteries will be 61,000 tons (pessimistic) and 129,000 tons (optimistic) in 2025. Assuming that the price of vanadium pentoxide is stable at 100,000 yuan/ton, the corresponding market size is 6.1 billion Yuan and 12.9 billion yuan. Proton exchange membrane: We predict that the demand for proton exchange membranes for vanadium batteries in 2025 will be 1.52 million (pessimistic) and 3.2 million square meters (optimistic). Assuming that the unit price of proton exchange membranes will drop to 2,000 yuan/㎡ in 2025, the corresponding market sizes are respectively 3 billion yuan and 6.4 billion yuan.
Lithium: The strategic resource attributes of lithium mines are prominent, and lithium prices are expected to remain at high levels and fluctuate in 2023. The recent lithium OPEC and Canada’s request for Chinese companies to divest lithium mines in Canada once again demonstrates the strategic resource attributes of lithium mines. We expect the global lithium supply to be 1.934 million tons LCE in 2025, with a CAGR of 38.0% from 2021 to 2025. The lithium industry is still in a state of tight supply in 2023. In 2024, due to the release of a large number of new mine production capacity around the world, the balance of supply and demand is expected to return to normal.
Cobalt: It is expected to be in a tight balance between supply and demand in 2022-2023, and the shortage will intensify after 2024. The amount of cobalt used for power and electric vehicles brought about by the rapid development of new energy vehicles is expected to maintain a compound growth rate of around 27% (2022-2025). The global supply of cobalt mines will grow rapidly in 2022-2023, and the cobalt industry will maintain a tight balance between supply and demand ; After 2024, new cobalt mines will be limited, and the shortage of cobalt supply will intensify.
Rare earths: domestic quotas are released in an orderly manner, and rare earths are expected to remain in a tight balance in 2022-2025. It is expected that the domestic quota will still be released in an orderly manner, and the overall increase abroad will be limited. Considering the pull of the three major demands of new energy vehicles, wind power, and industrial motors, it is estimated that the global demand for praseodymium and neodymium oxide will be 122,600 tons in 2025, with a CAGR of 14% from 2021 to 2025. It is estimated that the rare earth industry will remain in a tight balance between supply and demand from 2022 to 2025.
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