Welcome to the WeChat subscription account of “Sina Technology”: techsina
Text/Chen Ping’an
Source/Bohu Finance (ID: bohuFN)
A few days ago, Musk said in a conference call on Twitter, “I think we are in a recession, and I think there will be a pretty serious recession in 2023.” He believes the severity of the 2023 recession will be “comparable” to that of 2009, when big-ticket items like homes and cars will be “disproportionately affected.”
This is not the first time Musk has expressed pessimism about the economy. In June of this year, according to news from Reuters, Musk expressed his concerns about the economic environment and started layoffs.
The past year has not been easy for Tesla. According to the latest official data, although Tesla’s sales reached a historic high of 400,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter of this year, it did not meet Wall Street’s expectations. After all, in order to boost sales, Tesla offered a considerable degree of relief in December.
Superimposed on the sales data of the fourth quarter, Tesla’s total report card for 2022 is 1.31 million vehicles, not to mention that it is far behind the 1.85 million vehicles of its competitors, and there is still a certain distance from the 1.5 million vehicles it set at the beginning of the year. .
(Tesla delivery data)However, what worries investors even more is that in April this year, Tesla, which has “orders until next year”, has experienced overcapacity for three consecutive months. Tesla’s share price has also fallen from its peak of $1.3 trillion at the end of 2021 to its current $350 billion, which is really good for short sellers.
(Tesla stock price)The chill has passed to Tesla.
Trouble 2022
This year’s new energy vehicle market has been amazing this year. From the perspective of the global market, from January to September this year, the cumulative global sales of electric vehicles exceeded 6.8 million, with a market share of 13%.
Specific to the Chinese market, this growth is even more rapid. According to data from the China Automobile Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles from January to November 2022 will reach 6.253 million and 6.067 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 1 times; Achieved sales of 6.7 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 90%.
But this express train, Tesla did not catch up too much.
Affected by the domestic epidemic at the beginning of the year, Tesla’s Chinese factory was temporarily suspended, which directly led to Tesla’s sales in China in April this year being only 1,512 vehicles. But at that time, whether it was the industry or the capital, it was still self-evident that Tesla was optimistic.
It’s no wonder that Tesla is a well-deserved leader in the new energy vehicle market, both in terms of gross profit and production capacity. Musk even stated at the financial report that the order was scheduled for a year later.
But in December this year, Tesla once again heard the news of the suspension of production. According to Reuters, according to an internal notice and two people familiar with the matter, Tesla’s Shanghai factory has suspended production that day. The factory’s morning shift was cancelled, and the workers were told that they could start taking vacations. The factory did not explain the specific reasons.
Then there was news that not only December, but Tesla will also stop production from January 20 to January 31, 2023. If the news is true, it also means that Tesla’s production cuts will be extended from 2022 to 2023.
Although Tesla subsequently responded that the news was not true, the holiday period was January 20-28. In order to allow employees to flexibly arrange their return home time, they extended it by one day before and after.
After the release of the fourth-quarter production and sales data, Martin Viecha, director of investor relations at Tesla, also emphasized that a smoother delivery model will generate more vehicles in transit, which is why production is greater than delivery.
The industry remains concerned about demand challenges facing Tesla.
Such claims are not without basis.
On the one hand, in the second quarter of this year, Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory surpassed the Fremont factory to become the largest production base with a production capacity of 750,000 vehicles. In addition to supplying the domestic market, the Shanghai factory is also responsible for supplying the European market. From past experience, such shutdowns are rare.
(Source: Network)On the other hand, the production and delivery volumes of Q3 this year were 365,900 and 343,800 respectively, a difference of 22,000. This can explain to a certain extent that Tesla’s demand is declining.
Even with record sales in the fourth quarter, analysts are still not optimistic about Tesla. According to the “Wall Street Insights” report, investment bank Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in an email to the media: “Tesla’s demand is clearly showing cracks, and the (fourth quarter) data is not optimistic.”
In addition, unlike the “dumbbell-shaped” structure in the early stage of the market, the current market structure of new energy vehicles is changing. In the price range of 100,000-150,000 and 150,000-200,000 mid-range new energy models, consumers’ willingness to buy cars has increased significantly, and there is still a lot of room for growth in the future.
BYD is the best beneficiary. At present, Tesla’s main models, Model 3 and Model Y, are both at high-end prices, and there have been no major upgrades for several years after their release, making them less competitive than before.
Despite all kinds of pressure, Musk still said that “in the long run, Tesla will become the most valuable company in the world.” But the dismal stock price is enough to explain the market’s evaluation of Tesla.
Will 2023 be better?
It’s hard to say whether Tesla’s situation will be better as it enters 2023.
From the perspective of the overall market, although the growth will continue, the triple-digit growth like this year will become history. In November this year, the growth of China’s new energy market has shown weakness. Soochow Securities predicts that the year-on-year growth rate of domestic electric vehicle sales in 2023 will drop from 96% in the previous year to 38%, or 9.504 million vehicles.
The growth rate of the overall market is slowing down, and market competition will enter the stage of close combat.
According to Buffett’s theory, moats can be divided into four types: intangible assets, customer switching costs, network effects, and cost advantages. In the past, relying on the leadership of intelligent technology, the ultimate control of the industrial chain, the unprecedented production capacity brought by the Shanghai factory and the celebrity effect of Musk himself, Tesla’s moat can be said to be deep and wide.
(Source: Network)But times have changed. 2022 will be a year of rapid progress for all domestic new energy vehicle players.
In terms of battery life, even if hybrid technologies such as plug-in hybrid and range extension are not included, pure electric battery life is constantly refreshing records. The new forces have made great use of the smart cockpit, integrating multiple screens, voice, and gestures. In order to popularize the assisted driving experience, Xiaopeng is directly free of charge; Weilai continues to improve the user experience mechanism, and battery replacement and mobile phones are not left behind.
Even leaving aside the domestic Diwang, new forces and traditional fuel vehicle manufacturers who have transformed, the North American counterparts alone are enough to give Tesla a headache for a while.
According to a new report from S&P Global Mobility released last month, Tesla’s U.S. market share fell from 79% in 2020 to 65% as of the third quarter of this year.
At the same time, Standard & Poor’s predicts that by 2025, Tesla’s market share may drop significantly to below 20%, while the number of electric vehicle models in the United States is expected to increase from the current 48 to 159.
Of course, Tesla is not without action. On October 24 this year, Tesla announced that it would adjust the price of Model 3 and Model Y sold in mainland China, with a reduction range of 14,000 to 37,000 yuan. It is worth noting that this is Tesla’s first significant price cut since six consecutive price increases.
Later, Tesla launched a “superimposed benefit”. From December 7th to December 31st, the existing car will be exempted from 6,000 yuan, and the previous 4,000 yuan insurance subsidy will be superimposed. A simple estimate, after superimposing multiple discounts, the actual price of a standard battery life version of the Chinese-made Model Y naked car can reach a historical low of 270,000 yuan.
But price reduction can only be a temporary strategy. Judging from the data of China Merchants Bank International, Tesla, which has added a price reduction buff, still has an oversupply situation. In October, Tesla’s Shanghai plant produced 87,706 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles and delivered 71,704 vehicles, with a difference of 16,002 vehicles. This is also the largest gap between production and sales since Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory went into production. It is hard to be optimistic about the increase in sales brought about by price cuts.
From the perspective of the entire fourth quarter, Tesla’s 405,300 vehicles have not yet reached the market’s expected 420,000-430,000 vehicles.
Moreover, the subsidy for new energy vehicles will be reduced next year, and it will not last long by reducing prices, so the greater hope may lie in mass models.
In Tesla’s Q3 earnings call, Musk did not disclose the name and technical details of the new car, but said that the cost of the next-generation model “is expected to be half that of Model 3.” It is not difficult to speculate that this will be a new model aimed at the mass market. But the core of Tesla lies in technology, and it does not pay attention to the creation of interiors. Whether the cost can be cut in half and whether it can continue to maintain its core competitiveness will test Tesla’s product capabilities.
But one thing is certain, that is, in this long marathon, Tesla’s seat is not so secure.
This article is reproduced from: https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2023-01-03/doc-imxyxprf5999444.shtml
This site is only for collection, and the copyright belongs to the original author.