Feelings of learning the strategy of Pinellia Investment in the fourth quarter

Today I listened to Li Bei’s investment strategy for the fourth quarter of Banxia Investment (the manager of the golfer fund said that there is the original video under the page), and wrote some personal opinions. I feel that Li Bei’s level is still relatively high, and it is rare to have an overall understanding of the market. More profound fund managers. Looking at the historical performance of this Pinellia again, I feel that its performance and cognition are more consistent.

1. Pinellia Investment pursues absolute returns, this is right, just like a student, if you are looking for 100 points, then no matter who produces the papers or the exam questions, even if you don’t get 100 points in the exam, the result you get will be the same. It won’t go anywhere. On the contrary, those fund managers who pursue relative returns have flaws in their direction or requirements, no matter how well they do.

2. In the interview, Li Bei mentioned that he is more willing to learn from history and historical data. This direction is also correct. In the stock market, history tells us far more than you think. For example, through historical data, Banxia Investment found that 25% of stock price changes are driven by performance changes, and 75% are driven by valuation changes. (Note: The so-called valuation change drive is essentially the liquidity drive brought about by mass madness. Of course, this mass madness includes both greed and fear). This tells me that big-cycle investment may be more suitable for A-shares, so I choose the half-position investment strategy of Seth Klarman in “Margin of Safety”; and the Banxia investment strategy with more research resources is more aggressive. This difference is determined by resource endowments.

3. On the basis of the above cognition, from long stocks to macro hedging, and gave the understanding of the investment strategies of “The Rose of Time” and the two fund managers who are friends of time. As far as the stock market is concerned, I personally think that its so-called macro hedging is essentially a timing strategy under limited varieties. However, its timing strategy is mainly based on the understanding of the cycle and continuous observation of the details of liquidity data – this is actually the basis of the timing strategy, and the probability of success is still very high.

4. In general, his remarks are more objective, but the risk appetite is higher. Later, I listened to its risk management strategy and the largest retracement performance in history, which is basically quite reliable. However, the biggest problem with this strategy is that there is little room for error. Although the tail risk capability has been verified in 2015, to be honest, for professional investors in 2015, it is really not a risk. Professional investors with a little risk awareness Everyone knows how to manage this risk.

5. Regarding the deep recession of the US economy, it mentioned that China’s exports to the US in July and August may suffer from destocking in the US. Due to the short-term use of US labor, the current round of US inflation and labor wages are the reasons why. I personally think that the impact of the newly released export data to the US on China is actually not that big. Our problem lies in the sluggish domestic consumption caused by the decline in employment and income caused by the decline in real estate, although exports in US dollars only increased by 7 points. speed, but does not have a substantial impact on domestic production and capacity. The main reason is that in terms of export volume and production capacity, there is no data showing that the decline is so severe. After all, the current consumption of the domestic economy is mainly denominated in RMB. In the context of the Fed raising interest rates, a strong dollar can indeed ease inflationary pressures in the United States, which is bound to have an impact on capital flows. This is also what I said before, although we are facing a deflation problem, the room for interest rate cuts and monetary easing is bound to be greatly suppressed. I personally can’t see the deep recession of the U.S. economy that Li Bei said. After all, this year’s base is high, and next year’s inflation will naturally come down. The reason for the high interest rate.

Let’s talk about the issue of decoupling. I am not so pessimistic. First of all, capital is profit-seeking, and economic development is in line with the theory of resource endowment – ​​the cost is low, so decoupling is just the wishful thinking of politicians; secondly, the construction and transfer of global industrial chains It does not happen overnight. Looking at the world, only the population of India can make the United States live a good life as it is today, but India’s educational resources and population quality are not enough to support the needs of completing industrial transfer. As for the return of manufacturing to the United States, in my opinion, part of the crippled European manufacturing industry will flow to the United States. Finally, the current strategic intention of the United States is very obvious. On the Ukraine issue, the warmonger of the United States has tasted the sweetness. The next step is to try to stir up troubles around the Taiwan Strait and destroy our business environment. This is why it can lead a group of thugs and younger brothers. The only path to complete decoupling. This time is indeed the time to bet on the country. Every Chinese should understand that we have no choice but to unite closely around the country and believe that the country has the ability and wisdom to solve this problem. In fact, the United States is not as strong as imagined. The tertiary industry in the United States accounts for as high as 80% of GDP. This is useless during the war. This is also the core reason why the United States can’t wait to contain China’s economic development. Although the United States is the world’s largest military power, its military strength is deployed globally. 70 years ago, the United States did not get any advantage in North Korea. Today, at our doorstep, I don’t believe that the Yankees can get any advantage.

Finally, I would like to talk about my personal regrets in investment. Since I started professional investment in 2013, I have been fighting alone. External research resources and information resources are lacking, and I am getting more and more tired.

Disclaimer: This article is only for personal after reading, and I have no interest in the mentioned private equity funds. The stock market is risky, be cautious when entering the market!

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