01
Stopped and rebounded.
This week, the broader market declined and then rose, out of the bottom of the market, basically the same as expected at the end of last week, adjusted in place around 3150.
Because of the old witch incident, the market was pessimistic a few days ago, but on Thursday, my brother clearly pointed out that the adjustment wave is coming to an end, and the adjustment of wave B 4 or 5 wave 4 is basically in place. In the next month or so, the market will enter the retouching mode. . On Friday, the market rebounded as expected, sending out a technical stop signal.
Regarding the issue of market conditions, in yesterday’s latest “Weekly Strategy”, I have already made a detailed interpretation, “the adjustment is basically in place, and we will actively do more science and technology innovation boards”, so I won’t repeat it here. Regarding the Science and Technology Innovation Board, as early as May 8, in the article “The Bear Market of the Science and Technology Innovation Board is Coming to an End”, my brother said that in the next few years, the biggest opportunity for A shares will be on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. $Kechuang 50(SH000688)$
On Friday, the Kechuang 50 Index broke through in heavy volume and set a new high for rebound. The next target is shown in the figure below:
02
For semiconductors, don’t get too into the game.
Last weekend, the screen was full of robots; this weekend, the screen was full of semiconductors. $CHIP ETF(SH512760)$
Every weekend is hot, and it will basically hang up next week.
Will the chip also fail next week?
Because of the hype for a few days, and the news of the US imperialist chip bill, the probability of the chip sector collectively failing next week is small, but sector differentiation is inevitable, some targets will fail, and some targets will rebound to new highs. Some will also increase.
As for the characterization of this round of chip market, I already said a few days ago that this is a round of short-term hype, not a logical drive of fundamentals, and is fundamentally different from the big chip market in 19-20, so it is impossible to go out of the neutral line. The market is even less likely to become the new main line of the market. However, it is normal for short-term speculation on and off for about two weeks.
Regarding the view of chip stocks, I also said in the latest “Weekly Strategy”: there is still room for hype in the short-term; the mid-line should not be too optimistic; the long-term continues to be optimistic.
Emotions have been hyped, and emotions have gone away, and this round of chip stocks will be no exception.
The short-term depends on hormones, the mid-term depends on prosperity, and the long-term depends on performance .
The global semiconductor industry has entered a downturn cycle, and domestic substitution has entered the deep-water area, making it more and more difficult to realize performance; moreover, after a round of speculation in 19-20 years, the market has long been fatigued, and most chip stocks are estimated The value isn’t cheap either. Therefore, for the entire chip sector, it is difficult to get out of the trending market in the mid-term, and it is more of a structural market, similar to the past two years.
On weekends, many people are talking about domestic substitution of semiconductors, but most people do not understand the real meaning of domestic substitution.
For China’s semiconductor industry, what really needs to be replaced by domestic products is not low-end technologies and products, but mid-to-high-end technologies and products.
The reason is very simple, because the US imperialists suppress China’s semiconductor industry, and they want to suppress advanced processes, not mature processes, nor backward processes. U.S. Imperial’s chips are inseparable from the Chinese market. If they lose the Chinese market, where will they get so much money for research and development, and U.S. Imperial’s semiconductor industry will be finished. However, U.S. Imperial cannot let China master advanced chip technology. Good always import chips from the US.
The US imperialist strategy is actually very simple. It is to limit China’s access to advanced technology and force China to buy from Europe and the United States. Not only will it be difficult for China to obtain equipment materials and design technologies below 14nm in the future, but it will also limit TSMC, Intel and Samsung in China. New fabs; however, mature processes above 14nm or outdated processes above 28nm will not only not restrict exports to China, but may even dump the Chinese market, in order to suppress China’s semiconductor industry to the greatest extent.
Now, among domestic semiconductor companies, there are few that can be replaced by advanced processes below 14nm. In the past few years, among the domestic substitution of semiconductors, the ones that are easier to achieve have been replaced, and those that have not been replaced by domestic ones are basically hard bones, and it is more and more difficult to realize the performance. )$ , how many domestic companies use its EDA? You can only fool retail investors.
Therefore, the domestic replacement of chips has a long way to go. It can solve the domestic replacement of 14nm in the next three to five years, and it can solve the domestic replacement of less than 7nm in the next five to ten years, even if it is successful. Let’s see when Shanghai Microelectronics’ DUV lithography machine can be developed. After it is developed, the problem of 28-14nm can basically be solved. Moreover, “everything is difficult at the beginning”, 0-1 is always better than 1- N is much more difficult. Once the DUV is developed, the time to develop the EUV will be much shorter.
Therefore, this wave of chip stocks needs to be viewed dialectically. It’s not that you can’t play, but don’t get involved, and don’t get too deep into the game, lest you become a pick-up man again. Even if you are involved in short-term speculation, you still need to control your positions. Furthermore, it is best to choose new logic and new targets. The old logic and old targets that have been played badly in the past few years will reduce attention.
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