Today, Muyuan’s trading volume was 76.84 million shares, with a turnover of 3.962 billion, down 6.4%, with the highest drop of 9%, and Wen’s drop of 7.52%.
Wen’s announced the third quarterly report yesterday, achieving a net profit of 684 million and a loss of 3.5 billion in the first half of the year.
Looking at the disk, Wen’s weakened after the opening, and Muyuan began to dive in the afternoon. And further trigger unexplained panic selling.
It has nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company, the main reason is the difference in market perception of the pig cycle.
1. About the slaughter of live pigs.
Yesterday, the Bureau of Statistics announced that from January to September this year, there were 520.3 million live pigs. If the average is monthly, it would be 57.81 million per month. Based on this calculation, 693 million live pigs will be sold throughout the year.
Pressing this column corresponds to almost 2018.
This is not the case in practice.
In the first half of 2022, 365.87 million live pigs will be sold, and a total of 154.43 million live pigs will be sold in the third quarter.
In the first half of the year, the average monthly slaughtering pig was 60.97 million; in the third quarter, the average monthly slaughtering pig was 51.48 million, an average decrease of 9.5 million compared with the first half of the year. The reduction in monthly slaughter will make pig prices rise in the third quarter. According to the slaughter progress in the third quarter, about 673 million live pigs will be slaughtered in the whole year, which is basically the same as that in 2021.
According to Muyuan Wen’s monthly slaughter, it is estimated that the average price of live pigs from January to September this year is 16.66 to 17 yuan. According to the price of live pigs in October, the average price of live pigs this year is around 20 yuan. Also basically the same as in 2021.
According to the calculation of Wen’s quarterly report yesterday, Wen’s pig farming business was just around the break-even point from January to September. Tianbang removes non-operating income and still loses money.
In the first half of the year, it was judged that the national slaughtering of live pigs would gradually decline in the second half of the year, so the data from the Bureau of Statistics has been well verified. It is good that the slaughtering in the fourth quarter can maintain the level of the third quarter.
2. About Nengfan data. This is all boring. I believe that those who have studied pig farming a little understand it.
3. Remarks on the end of the pig cycle. This argument is similar to that in the first half of the year that there are still three dips. Belongs to the snowball head.
4. This time is similar to the previous crash. When the market falls, it does not fall, and when the market rises, it falls sharply. Always inexplicable. Some people cut the meat and some people collect the meat, and the transaction amount will not deceive people. No need to guess who ran, no need.
In addition, many friends like to see the inflow and outflow of funds, and what main funds flow in and out. If I have 100,000 shares and sell them at one time, it is the main capital outflow, which is also called large-order selling. If I buy 1,000 more shares at a time, it is a small-order buy. I’m still the main source of funds, so looking at these kinds of statistics is meaningless at all. $Muyuan Shares (SZ002714)$ $Wen’s Shares (SZ300498)$
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