The content of this article is written by Professor Zheng Yongnian, Chairman of the Academic Committee of the Institute of Public Policy Research, South China University of Technology, Chairman of the Guangzhou Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Research Institute, and Dean of the Qianhai Institute of International Affairs, The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen). The keynote speech “Game of Great Powers and Reconstruction of the World Order” made in the “Situation and Policy” series of lectures invited by the Academy of Social Sciences was compiled. Sourced from Greater Bay Area Reviews.
Today’s topic is “The Game of Great Powers and the Reconstruction of the World Order”. This topic is very big and very important. It will affect China and even the whole world for decades. Today, I will first talk about international affairs, big-power politics and big-power games, and then talk about China, and analyze how China responds in some big areas. We are the second largest economy in the world and the largest trading nation. If you don’t talk about China, the world situation will not make sense.
So, what are the factors affecting the world order in recent years? In my opinion, there are four major factors affecting the international order since World War II: the new crown epidemic, the Ukraine war, great power competition and Sino-US relations.
The impact of the new crown epidemic
If you understand history, you will find that many wars and epidemics have gone together in history. Unfortunately, this epidemic and war have come together again. Of course, the new crown epidemic comes first, and the war comes later. The new crown epidemic has had a great impact on various countries, from occurrence to spread, countries are struggling to cope.
The Covid-19 pandemic has exposed weaknesses in national systems. Although the resources of Western countries are very powerful, when a governance crisis occurs, many conflicts arise between the state and society, between the government and the people. Of course, this has something to do with the difference between the individualism-centered culture in the West and the collectivism-centered culture in Asian countries.
This new crown epidemic has divided not only countries, but also societies. When human beings face a crisis, all kinds of weaknesses will be revealed, not only in the coexistence of people and the new crown, but also in the coexistence of people. From the perspective of the United States, the new crown crisis has greatly divided American society. Of course, China also has similar problems to a certain extent, the difference is that it is controllable and uncontrollable – we are controllable, but many Western countries are out of control. Naturally, the division of society is not only because of the impact of the new crown epidemic, but also because of the impact on society of the huge economic rescue plans launched by various countries and governments during the new crown epidemic. In essence, the huge financial and fiscal plans of various countries are mainly to rescue the social crisis, but the economic resources allocated by the state have intensified social injustice. This is very evident in American society.
The continuous fermentation of the new crown crisis also affects the relationship between countries and the world, and between countries. There are fewer exchanges between countries, and the entire aviation industry has suffered catastrophic effects in recent years. There is also less human-to-human interaction, which is the so-called “decoupling”. Especially since the outbreak of the new crown crisis, Sino-US relations have been divided in terms of ideology, governance philosophy, values, etc., and the people of the two countries are arguing with each other on social media.
If you pay attention to social media regularly, you will find that the new crown crisis has also led to the rise of populism in various countries. If it is manifested as populism at home, then it is manifested as nationalism on the international political stage. In the United States, this kind of populism is also manifested in disputes between various races. Since the outbreak of the new crown crisis, the living environment of Asian Americans in the United States has become very bad. The new crown crisis is far from over, and we must continue to observe the impact of the new crown crisis on domestic and international politics.
Ongoing Russian-Ukrainian War
The Ukrainian war was to be expected. Although the war was initiated by Russia, the root cause of the war was NATO led by the United States. NATO is a product of the Cold War, and NATO’s enemy at that time was the Warsaw Pact, which is the Soviet Union’s Eastern European bloc. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the Eastern European bloc, the Warsaw Pact was also dissolved, but NATO not only did not dissolve, but began to expand round after round. NATO expanded five times in a row, until Ukraine joined NATO and forced to the door of Russia, which constituted national insecurity for Russia.
There are also some who believe that the war is due to the personal character of Russian President Vladimir Putin. This is the rhetoric of the Western media and Western politicians who put the main responsibility on Putin alone. Don’t exaggerate Putin’s personal role. The root cause of the war is not Putin. The former Soviet leader Gorbachev was very pro-Western. Yeltsin, the first president of Russia after the Soviet Union, was also pro-Western. Even Putin was pro-Western in the early days. They all wanted to join the Western camp, even NATO, but the West Russia’s request was rejected.
Of course, it is also true that Putin does not like the West now. Then we have to ask, why did Putin, who was very pro-Western in the early days, become an anti-Western figure later? This is the result of a long-term interaction between the West and Russia. The eastward expansion of NATO has made Russia feel insecure as a country. Even without Putin, as long as NATO’s eastward expansion threatens Russia’s security, another “Putin” will emerge.
So, what will the future of the Russian-Ukrainian war look like?
The first may be the complete failure of Russia, or even the second disintegration of Russia. The West has used various methods and unprecedented tools to sanction Russia. The Russian-Ukrainian war is now not just a war between Russia and Ukraine, it has become a war with Ukraine as a proxy for the West. Of course the (US-led) NATO countries were not directly involved in the war, but they contributed money, resources and weapons, and Ukraine was actually a proxy in disguise. But to say that Russia is going to disintegrate, I think it is unlikely. Historically, great powers are hard to beat. Russia is also a nation of many disasters. For example, after the October Revolution of 1917, the entire West also made efforts to contain the communist revolution in the Soviet Union. After 1945, the West fought against the Soviet Union for half a century. In the end, of course, the Soviet Union disintegrated, but Russia after the disintegration of the Soviet Union was still a big country. There is no possibility that Russia will fail completely.
The second possibility is that Russia wins completely. That is to say, Russia has achieved its goals, such as Ukraine not joining NATO, Ukraine is not militarized, Ukraine does not allow foreign countries to set up military bases, and recognizes the independence of Crimea. I think this possibility is also very small. Ukraine is actually bigger than Germany, and it would be very difficult for Russia to annex the whole of Ukraine. Now on social media, many people are discussing what Putin wants to do, but most of them are conjectures of Western media and Western politicians, because people have no idea what Putin wants.
The end result could be a partial failure and partial success for Russia. The two sides are still at war, and negotiations have been going on for several rounds. Basically there is a little consensus, such as Ukraine not joining NATO. However, there are still difficulties on territorial sovereignty issues including the two eastern republics. We need to see clearly that it does not depend on Ukraine whether or not Ukraine will compromise. Now the situation has become very complicated. It is no longer the relationship between Ukraine and Russia. NATO and Western countries have been involved in this war to varying degrees. The level of Western support will in turn affect how the Russian and Ukrainian governments view the war. Negotiations will continue, but the war will not end immediately.
The war in Ukraine showed the disintegration of the UN-centred world system established since World War II. When the United Nations cannot check and balance in any effective way to make its member states abide by the rules, it shows that the United Nations has failed, the system has failed. The United Nations is not a country, but a set of rules. When its rules are useless and non-binding on member states, these rules are basically in a state of disintegration.
There are no winners in war. But in the short term, the US is the winner. The United States has achieved what President Biden called two “unities”: the first is the unity between European countries, because the Russian-Ukrainian war has made European countries have another common enemy; the second is the unity between Europe and the United States, in the past During the Trump period, the United States “withdrew from the group” everywhere and did not pay attention to the relationship between the United States and its European allies. After Biden took office, the first priority was to restore relations with European allies at the international level. The Russian-Ukrainian war undoubtedly helped the United States achieve this. A “Unity”. In addition, there is another “unity”, that is, the United States has achieved “unity” between China and Russia. But it is clear that this solidarity is actually “united”. It is the result of Western politicians and media kidnapping China and Russia together, and the result of the so-called “China-Russia axis” that the West has been shaping in international discourse and narrative.
But in the long run, the US is both a winner and a loser. Why do you say that?
First, on the surface, it appears that the United States is united with Europe, but in reality it is not. First, Europe is experiencing a very serious energy crisis. In general, European countries rely on Russia for about 40% of their energy, and Germany relies on Russia for more than 50% of their energy. In the long run, they can mention “de-Russification”, but such a high degree of dependence makes European countries cut off relations with Russia in the short term, which is undoubtedly a disaster. No government can afford it, and no government can afford it. Businesses can afford it. Second, Europe is also experiencing a food crisis. Ukraine and Russia can be said to be the breadbasket of Europe, especially Ukraine. I used to read “Ukrainian Tractors” when I was young, and this one shows that it is the breadbasket of Europe. Spring ploughing is about to begin, what to do with this food crisis? Then there is the supply chain crisis. Therefore, in the short term, although the war will have little impact on the United States, it will only endure the crisis of war for European countries. Although the United States (the West) sanctioned Russia, this kind of “decoupling” and “de-Russification” – in the words of our Chinese – is “injuring one thousand enemies and eight hundred to yourself”. We call Russia a “fighting nation” because its people’s tolerance is very high, but countries like France, Germany or the United Kingdom are used to being rich, and their people’s tolerance is very low.
Second, the issue of Germany’s “remilitarization”. How will Germany’s “remilitarization” affect Europe? This is easier to understand from the perspective of our neighbor, Japan. How many years have passed since Japan wanted to revise its pacifist constitution and wanted to re-militarize it? But so far there is no consensus in Japan. Re-militarization of Japan will have a very profound impact on the entire geopolitics of East Asia.
Germany is using the Ukraine crisis to carry out remilitarization this time, everyone supports it, at least no country explicitly opposes it, and the United States is also promoting it. Germany’s military budget suddenly increased to 2%. What does the remilitarization of Germany mean for Europe? What will be the impact on France? What is the impact on the relationship between Britain, France and Germany? Professor Huntington of Harvard University in the United States wrote a book called The clash of civilizations (“Clash of Civilizations”), that different wars will occur in different civilizations, he assumed that after the Cold War, the EU and European countries will never again be There will be war. But I personally feel that Huntington’s judgment may be wrong. You must know that World War I and World War II took place between European countries, between countries with the same civilization, the same culture, and even countries with similar political systems and economic development levels. The remilitarization of Germany is very dangerous to change the situation in Europe in the long run, and it will have a very significant impact on Europe.
Third, the issue of nuclear proliferation will be more severe. Because of the Russian-Ukrainian war, many countries, like Belarus, have revised their constitutions to allow countries to possess nuclear weapons; some countries have now proposed the concept of “nuclear sharing”, including Japan and South Korea in Asia, who use North Korea as an excuse to cooperate with The United States conducts nuclear sharing; and countries such as Poland have decided to allow the United States to place nuclear weapons in Poland. Nuclear proliferation caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war will become a new wave of threats that will undoubtedly bring greater insecurity to the world, including the United States itself. Although some international relations scholars believe that if every country had nuclear weapons, would the world be a more peaceful place? Personally, I believe that not only will the world not become peaceful, but there will be greater dangers. Because you can never guarantee which leader has the nerve to use nuclear weapons at will, leading to nuclear proliferation and nuclear war.
In addition, the Russian-Ukrainian war in disguise reflects the failure of the United States’ diplomatic capabilities. Not only China and Russia were “kidnapped” by the United States, but the United States itself also kidnapped Europe. The United States has its unique geopolitical advantages, and it is surrounded by two countries – Canada in the north and Mexico in the south. Now some people think that if the US supports Ukraine, will it turn the Ukrainian battlefield into an Afghan battlefield? Afghanistan is in the Middle East, far from the United States, and far from Europe. But now the battlefield is in Ukraine, in the very heart of Europe; if Ukraine becomes another Afghanistan, the whole of Europe will suffer. So the US actually kidnapped European countries as well. The United States handles the Russian issue and the European issue based on its own interests, not the interests of European countries. So although Biden claims that the United States and Europe have achieved unity because of the Russian-Ukrainian war, I personally think that this unity is very fragile, and its development trend remains to be seen.
Great Power Competition under the “New International Order”
When it comes to great power competition, everyone thinks of China-US competition, just like the US-Soviet competition during the Cold War. However, what we cannot ignore is that today’s great power competition is not only between China and the United States. When Mao Zedong, we called the superpowers the first world, and the second world and the third world. Now we believe that China is still the largest third world country, and we also represent the interests of third world countries, but from the perspective of other countries, China and the United States are now two superpowers. Just as the United States and the Soviet Union could not decide the entire world during the Cold War, China and the United States cannot decide the entire world affairs today. In fact, other great powers are playing an increasingly important role in today’s international affairs.
If the Ukraine war shows the disintegration of the UN-centered international system established since World War II, how can a new international order be established when the old one is about to disintegrate?
At present, it seems that the major powers are very active, and they all hope to establish an international order that can maximize their own national interests. Why did Russia start the Russo-Ukraine war? On the one hand, there is the eastward expansion of NATO. If there is no resistance from Russia, the eastward expansion of NATO will never stop. There is a very famous saying in our political science that “absolute power, absolute corruption.” I think this is true for individuals, for countries, and for groups. As a group, NATO’s expansion will never stop if it is not restrained by external forces. Russian President Vladimir Putin may want to establish a “Little Soviet Union”, because only when a group like the “Little Soviet Union” emerges to deal with NATO, NATO expansion can stop and Russia’s basic national security can be guaranteed.
Turkey is another country that has a big influence on China. In the Russian-Ukrainian war, Turkey has been the only winner so far. Turkey condemns both the war launched by Russia and the failure of NATO to handle its relations with Russia. At the same time, Turkey has also exerted superb diplomatic skills to pull Russia and Ukraine together and conduct many negotiations in the capital Istanbul. Turkey used to be an empire – a Muslim empire. Since modern times, Turkey has changed from a former Muslim religious country to a secularized country, but the current President Erdogan has been engaged in “re-religion” and “de-secularization” since he came to power, trying to build a Turkic language family (Turkish) alliances and empires. If it succeeds, it will have a very large impact on the situation in China’s northwest frontier, because Turkey has a great influence on the Xinjiang independence forces. So we have to pay close attention.
Another major country that has made a difference on the international stage is India. India’s attitude towards the Russian-Ukrainian war is similar to that of China, and it even explicitly stated that it would buy energy from Russia, but India is now under much lower international pressure than China. I have always said that China-India relationship is very important, second only to China-US relationship, because India is our biggest neighbor. In recent years, the United States has pursued an “Indo-Pacific strategy” to check and balance China, so some people think that India will stand on the side of the United States and condemn Russia. But India didn’t do that. India has traditionally had good relations with the Soviet Union, and India’s military and equipment systems are basically from Russia. Moreover, India, like China, is also a civilized country. Such a big country will not completely rely on the United States, and the United States does not have the ability to “incorporate” the whole of India. India is on our southwestern frontier, and it is also a rising power that cannot be ignored.
Japan to our east is another great country. Although China’s economic aggregate has greatly surpassed Japan’s after the rise of China, don’t forget that Japan used to be the world’s second largest economy, and so far it is still a big country with great economic capabilities in all aspects of technology. Japan now pursues its sphere of influence with its technological and economic prowess, aided by the United States. Japan will have a great influence on the Chinese mainland to resolve the Taiwan reunification issue. Moreover, Japan is now a major country in the CPTPP, and China officially applied to join the CPTPP last year. Can our “second accession to the WTO” be realized? Japan’s attitude towards China’s entry into the CPTPP is very critical.
Indonesia in Southeast Asia is also very important. Indonesia is also a large country with a population of several hundred million. If Indonesia’s role in ASEAN can be restored to what it was during the Suharto period before 1997, Indonesia’s position as the leader in Southeast Asia cannot be ignored. For China’s “Belt and Road”, especially the “Maritime Silk Road”, Indonesia is the top priority. The rise of Indonesia will also have a big impact on our relationship with Southeast Asia.
Therefore, the point to be emphasized here is that when we talk about the relationship between major powers today, we cannot only focus on the relationship between China and the United States. Many major powers are on the rise, and they are all pursuing an international order that maximizes their own national interests. Russia is just a step ahead. Turkey, Indonesia, and India will also take their next steps. The same is true for Japan’s revision of the pacifist constitution. The relationship of these countries with China will have a great impact on us and will have a great impact on the situation of the whole world.
Sino-US relations in the game
China-US relationship is not a simple bilateral relationship. China-US relationship is more like the two pillars of today’s world order, neither of which can fail. Our country has always emphasized that if China and the United States cooperate, everything can be accomplished; if they do not cooperate, nothing can be accomplished. It is a pity that the grand strategy of the United States now is to deal with China.
During the Cold War, the so-called China-US-Soviet Triangle was formed. President Nixon promoted the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the US, and China and the US basically stood together. Although not a formal alliance, it was actually a quasi-alliance to jointly deal with the expansion of the Soviet Union. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States began to focus its efforts on China. The United States has long judged that it will be difficult for Russia to rise again after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. For the United States, Russia can only act as a “troublemaker” and will not have a fatal impact on the global interests of the United States. The influence can only come from China.
During the Bush administration, the rise of new conservatism in the United States was aimed at China, with the aim of establishing a “mini NATO” in Asia. However, because of the 9/11 terrorist incident, the United States temporarily shifted its focus to counter-terrorism. Also because of counter-terrorism, China and the United States have found some common interests.
Has the U.S. counterterrorism been a success or a failure? In fact, the United States has not succeeded in countering terrorism, but the United States has changed its mentality and believes that terrorism is the norm, and everyone may have to constantly face the threat of terrorism. The United States began to think that the real threat to the United States is China. So Obama put forward a new concept, namely “return to Asia” (Pivot to Asia). Trump formally proposed the concept of “Indo-Pacific Strategy”. In the early days of the “Indo-Pacific Strategy”, it was only some informal communication. During the Trump period, it was a ministerial-level dialogue between the United States, Japan, Australia and India. .
Why did the U.S. break away from Europe? Why end the war in Afghanistan from the Middle East? The big goal is to shift the strategic focus to the Indo-Pacific. Today, the United States has formed the “two three four five six plus”. “Two” refers to the bilateral allies of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region, such as the United States, Japan, the United States and South Korea, and the United States and Australia; “three” refers to AUKUS, which is the alliance of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia; “four” refers to the United States and Japan as we speak here. , Australia and India four countries security dialogue; “five” is the Five Eyes alliance; “six” is to add Singapore and Vietnam on the basis of the four Indo-Pacific countries. Of course, the United States can expand indefinitely and become a “six plus”, which can always be added.
The main purpose of the United States is to form an Asian version of NATO to target China. The United States has been reconstructing different types of alliances. For example, it hopes to integrate the bilateral alliance between the United States and Japan and the United States and South Korea into a trilateral alliance between the United States, Japan and South Korea. It is only because of the historical scars between Japan and South Korea that it has not been able to form a trilateral alliance. The expansion of NATO has created a war in Ukraine in Europe, while the United States is trying to form a “mini-NATO” in Asia. If the integration of the United States is successful, it will have a very dramatic impact on the geopolitics of Asia. It is not just a matter of preventing China from achieving national reunification, but a problem that will pose a huge threat to China’s national security.
The United States now has many means to target China. America’s first resort is polarization, that is, creating a pole centered on the United States and a pole centered on China. This action has already begun. The United States has now kidnapped Russia and China together, which is a step forward in polarization. In the field of ideology, after U.S. President Joe Biden came to power, he simply defined Sino-U.S. relations as the confrontation between the so-called “American democracy” and “Chinese autocracy”, which is a system struggle. Through the Russian-Ukrainian war, the United States even saw itself as “democracy” and “civilization”, and China and Russia as “authoritarian” and “barbaric”. This is a classic ideological battle.
The second means is decoupling. The first is the decoupling of high technology. The United States is stuck on our necks, and it is very obvious in high-tech fields such as chips. The second is the decoupling of economy, trade, investment and finance. More serious is the decoupling of talents. The United States now restricts us, and it is getting harder and harder for our polytechnic graduates to study in the United States, because the so-called security review (actually political review) in the United States is getting stricter.
There is also the weaponization of Internet social media in the United States. The United States regards China-related media as agents of the Chinese government, and marks the Xinhua News Agency and the People’s Daily.
The war between Russia and Ukraine, some people are asking whether the United States is going to focus on Europe again and will not move back to the Asia-Pacific region? I don’t think so. The Russian-Ukrainian war only delayed and consumed some of the energy of the United States. The United States’ grand strategy will not change. It is still placed in the Indo-Pacific region, and the target is China. Although the United States has been using various means to sanction Russia after the Ukraine war, the United States has never forgotten Taiwan. Today’s news is that the speaker of the US House of Representatives, Pelosi of the Democratic Party, is going to Taiwan on Sunday. This has only happened once before, and if it does, it will create another wave of Taiwan Strait crises. Regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war, the basic judgment of the United States is that Russia is just a trouble maker, and the real main competitor and main enemy is China. America’s grand strategy will not change.
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