1. I am afraid of getting old with fists, and I never put all my eggs in one basket. I will divide the funds into three flexible positions of high, medium and low. During the decline, according to the market and individual stock conditions, I will continue to transfer the low-elasticity positions to the high-elasticity positions. In this way, in a rapidly rising market, the profit may not be maximized, but it can be guaranteed that there will always be money to cover positions in highly elastic stocks when the market falls.
This model is suitable for investors who pursue certainty, and it may be difficult for impatients to persist. The opposite is the movement of the Tao, and the weak is the use of the Tao. Stocks in the world make money from rising, and rising is born from falling. If the position is well controlled, the bigger the bear market, the more profits will be made later.
2. Most people own a business just because it has been good.
Value investing is not a model. If you don’t follow a certain standard, you are a value investor. Understanding the value of an enterprise is value investing.
Many people who claim to be value investors, their understanding of stocks is actually based on its historical performance, and their understanding of the future value of enterprises is completely desperate.
3. Equity thinking is the fundamental logic of value investing, but the premise is that you must first understand what equity is. When you own assets, you have liabilities. When you own equity, you have to bear corresponding risks.
Equity thinking is of course correct, but the premise is that you really understand the future of the company, not its past. The value of an enterprise has always existed in the future, not how much money it has earned in the past few years. As investors, what we have to calculate is not the past data, but the future operation of the enterprise and the data that may be generated in the future.
4. Even people in the industry may not be able to think of good things, because their understanding of negative factors is much deeper than that of ordinary investors; The understanding of negative factors is much deeper than ordinary investors.
The original meaning of investment is to invest in a company and do things with a solid mind. Some money may not be earned, but it can be earned more stably and for a long time.
5. Find something in the transaction that does not change due to external changes, this is the value. Many stocks can only be held if they calculate their true value. When the entire market is killing valuations, the value is increasing, not decreasing.
All profits in 10 years can only be achieved by those who buy currency funds with full positions. It doesn’t matter how long the loss lasts, the important thing is not to hurt the fundamentals, and then you can resolutely buy those undervalued stocks when the price is low, and the subsequent bear-bull conversion can cover the losses for many years.
6. There are many valuable things, but only the value that you can understand is the effective value. All circles of competence are limited. The higher the valuation of the stock, the smaller the circle of competence of investors.
When the valuation reaches a certain level, even investors who have studied this stock for a long time will also withdraw from his circle of competence, although they often do not realize it.
Valuation itself is very flexible. Kweichow Moutai’s 70PE is of course high, but is 30PE high? Is 20PE cheap? 10PE will definitely not appear?
The most important thing about PE is not the value we see, but the possible changes in this value in the future.
7. My position reduction is mainly divided into 4 situations:
1) Changes in fundamentals;
2) The absolute increase is too large, overdrafting the performance of the next three years or more;
3) The relative increase is relatively large, exceeding the upper limit of the proportion of individual stock holdings;
4) There are better buying opportunities in other stocks.
For me, long-term holding has always been an outcome, not a goal. I don’t lighten up for the sake of lightening, and I don’t hold for the sake of holding.
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