What kind of life do you think is meaningful? Is it to overcome obstacles on the investment road and realize wealth and freedom as soon as possible? Or is the career progressing steadily and becoming a leader in the industry? Or do you have a happy family and enjoy the small blessings of life? Perhaps everyone has a definition of life in their hearts. But for @基金复基金, life is as exciting as the market, which cannot be defined by a certain standard. A life that is not defined is the life she wants. In this issue, let us walk into her life story and explore her investment philosophy.
After reining in from the brink, I know how to remove the “leverage” of human nature
Hello everyone, I am Fund Fu Fund, but I would like everyone to call me Fan Fan! Because my friends call me that! It has been almost 3 years since I settled in Xueqiu. During these 3 years, through thinking and creating in Xueqiu, I can clearly feel that my understanding of investment is constantly improving. It is really important to persist in summarizing and outputting.
My career path can be summed up as “The Prodigal Son”. I just entered the financial industry after graduation, and later, attracted by “windfall profits”, I entered the virtual currency industry. That’s right, a simple understanding is the industry of speculating on Bitcoin. At that time, the idea of entering this industry was very simple, just to make quick money. There was always a saying in my mind, “Be famous as soon as possible”, so you have to make money as soon as possible. As a result, all investments were bloody losses, especially in 2018, which was not only a bear market for A shares, but also a bear market for the virtual currency industry. I remember that one of my investments fell by 80%.
Virtual currency is an asset that has no fundamental support at all. It completely uses human greed to drive investment. In fact, it is no different from gambling. When it rises, it can double in one day, and when it falls, it can be directly returned to zero. In 2020, a friend I knew who speculated on coins made tens of millions, but when the Fed raised interest rates in 2022, the currency circle also fell, and my friend almost lost money. As the saying goes, if you gamble for a long time, you will lose. It is not unreasonable. When the “leverage” of human nature is infinitely magnified, there are only endless risks waiting for you.
After this incident, I learned more about self-denial, getting rid of “leverage” such as greed and fear in investment, and returning to rationality . Now that I have returned to the fund industry, doing a good job in macro and industry research, and following scientific investment logic and strategies, I feel more at ease.
Don’t underestimate the power of beta, let alone bet on expectations
My most successful investment is in 2021. I wonder if you still remember the hottest industry in 21 years, only new energy. This is also the first time I have felt the power of enjoying beta after choosing the right industry – just buy one at random, it will go up very well. In fact, I started to pay attention to and hold new energy in 20 years. However, consumption and medicine were too hot in 20 years, and the limelight of new energy was overwhelmed. In the first half of 21, favorable policies for new energy emerged one after another, and there were more and more bullish names, such as Ningde Times, BYD, Tianqi Lithium and so on. So, I resolutely started buying new energy stocks. I won’t say which one. Anyway, it is a small leader in a not particularly well-known segment. I started to test the water in the middle of 21 years, and slowly restocked in October. In the end, this stock gave me a profit of 100,000. At that time, I dared to keep increasing positions on the right side because I strongly felt the general trend of new energy as the main track. Later, at the beginning of 22, the new energy plummeted, and after my income fell back a part, I also decisively sold and took profit.
Just like the rebound of the pharmaceutical sector after the recent relaxation of the epidemic, many times we can perceive that there is a “trend” in a certain industry, and it is a relatively large and sustainable trend, rather than an industry rotation every two days. If you want to invest and make money, even if it is difficult for ordinary people to study a certain stock thoroughly, you must maintain a feeling that a certain industry may be the trend or trend, and then only the feeling is not enough, and you must have a certain logical deduction to demonstrate This outlet is not fleeting .
For example, after the epidemic eases, most people will feel that there will be a “trend” in the pharmaceutical sector. On this basis, a complete and closed-loop investment logic was deduced: I referred to the relevant data changes after foreign relaxation, and determined that the infection rate would rise, the supply of drugs with a high probability would be tight, and the sales of mainstream related drugs would increase, thereby driving performance. The growth rate is expected to increase. So I tended to participate in the investment of Yiling Pharmaceutical, and then conservatively took profits.
In 2021, the great success of investing in new energy stocks made me a little bit drifting, and I felt that I was the chosen one. Therefore, after taking profit of the new energy, looking at the cash in the account, the first thought is “I have to find the next outlet quickly”, and I can’t let the money lie in the account to “lazy”.
At that time, when the new crown was spreading, I came into contact with Watson Bio. At that time, I bought Watson because it was the first mRNA vaccine in China. The news of Watson’s factory building, in short, everything is going well, so I kept adding to Watson’s position. Although Watson continues to release news about clinical trials in various countries, the third-phase data has not come out for a long time, which makes people panic. Subsequently, Watson’s stock price began to plummet. Although I also carried it for a while, the clinical data was really delayed for too long, let alone the successful development and mass production of the vaccine.
In the end, I also began to reflect. In fact, when I bought Watson, it was a pure bet on expectations that it could quickly develop and mass-produce mRNA vaccines. However, vaccine development is very difficult and full of various uncertainties. However, I was blinded by various good news and turned this uncertainty into certainty. It seems to be on the news broadcast, keep building factories, and keep doing clinical work, and it will definitely succeed in the end. So, people always tend to see what they want to see, so it is easy to deceive themselves. Therefore, in order not to make similar mistakes again, I resolutely do not buy stocks that are “highly uncertain and fully supported by expectations and beliefs” .
Learning to invest is like “fighting monsters and upgrading”, with different challenges at different stages
Investment is like “upgrading monsters” in the game. Only by completing tasks and challenges at different stages can you gradually grow into a senior investor. For Xiaobai Jimin, the simplest is “broad-based index base + industry index as satellite position”, such as core position configuration CSI 300 index enhancement, CSI 500 index enhancement, satellite position for dispersion, such as national dispersion , you can configure the NASDAQ 100 index of developed countries, as well as the Vietnam index of emerging countries. In terms of industries, it is sufficient to configure industry indexes such as medicine, consumption, new energy, and semiconductors. In the long run, such a combination has a high probability of outperforming the market. For me who used to be very busy with work, this is basically the configuration, and then I insist on fixed investment and hold it for a long time.
From a young basic citizen to an advanced one, I began to study fund managers, began to study investment styles, and understood what is called growth style, what is called value style, what is called quality style, etc., and I also know different styles of funds , What kind of performance does it have in different market conditions. When I understood all of this, my investment awareness really began to awaken, and I began to know what I wanted and what I didn’t like. Like, I just like the growth style and not so much the quality and value style. So I started to have a preference for the heavy warehouse fund, which is biased towards the growth style. Therefore, I dare to say that after the growth style plummets in 2022, no one will follow suit and switch to an undervalued value style, but a firm growth style of increasing positions on dips. Therefore, at the stage of advanced Christians, start to know what you like and what you don’t like. It is precisely because of “like” that we can really achieve “others are fearful and I am greedy”.
Finally, when I reached the stage of senior civil servants, I felt changed again. I gradually put away my liking for a certain industry and a certain style. Because I realized that “like” can easily lead to emotional. Especially those bloggers like us who often study funds and industries, especially after making money in a certain industry before, it is easy to have feelings for a certain industry and funds, which leads to irrational operations. So I began to learn to see both funds and fund managers as purely tools. Then this kind of fund is completely used as a tool, which requires a higher investment ability: know what you want, and know how to judge whether a certain fund is what I want.
For example, buy new energy and medical themed funds. Many people buy industry-themed funds because of the reputation of the fund manager or the performance ranking of the same industry. I mainly look at the subdivisions of a certain fund’s heavy holdings. For example, when there is news of the opening recently, the subdivisions such as pharmacies and traditional Chinese medicine are the obvious benefits. Therefore, you can’t just buy a medical themed fund at this time, because it is likely that you will The selected medical fund has a heavy position in the CRO sector. The same is true for new energy, including upstream raw materials, midstream batteries, and downstream complete vehicles. I usually read a lot of industry research reports, select the subdivisions that I am more optimistic about, and then go to find funds that have heavy positions in this field. This is the tool thinking of senior Christians. Every fund is just a tool to “buy the stocks I want to buy for me”. The core is to know what you want.
A Word to Novice Investors
Many people will say that the most important thing in investment is “controlling positions” and the like. I think these are too detailed and vary from person to person. I think the most important thing for investors is not to keep learning, but to keep learning. In investment, the biggest risk is not to take a heavy position in a stock, nor to frequently adjust positions at the right time, nor to participate in high-risk futures trading. The biggest risk is “not understanding”. Take the sharp drop in wealth management products and bonds this year as an example. Many pure white investors, after listening to the propaganda of wealth management managers, bought without thinking, thinking that they will make a profit without losing money. After the result fell sharply, she cried and fainted at the counter.
Don’t just listen to the “investment truth” of bigwigs. We must have heard many great principles, such as: the more you fall, the more you buy, stick to fixed investment, and hold for a long time. . These words seem to be very correct, but they are useless. Because each principle applies to different scenarios. For a person with a small amount of funds and an unstable job, it is an extremely dangerous behavior in itself to buy more and more stocks in the early stages of a bear market. Therefore, when beginners listen to the truths shared by the big guys, they must not believe and copy all of them. Instead, they must selectively absorb according to their own situation, and continue to form their own investment system from learning and practice.
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