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• Two former Fed vice chairs call for sharp rate hikes, but warn U.S. economy could slip into recession

Two former Fed vice chairs — Clarida and Quarles — warned the central bank would have to raise interest rates more significantly than expected, with the result likely being a recession. Clarida said the Fed needs to raise interest rates into “restrictive territory” to slow economic growth and tame inflation, saying it would need to raise rates to “at least” 3.5% to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Quarles said earlier this week that the economy is “likely” to slip into a recession. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Kashkari also said the Fed may have to push long-term real interest rates into tightening territory to help reduce inflation.

• UBS investment manager: The Fed is still likely to achieve a soft landing

Although the Federal Reserve has tried to curb inflation with sharp interest rate hikes, many investors are worried that a recession is inevitable, triggering a recent sell-off frenzy in the U.S. stock market. But Jeremy Zirin, senior portfolio manager and head of U.S. equities for private clients at UBS Asset Management, said a recession isn’t coming so soon. He also sees a higher chance of a soft landing and a long-term expansion of the U.S. economy than many believe. “I think if we were to see a recession, it would be a normal, typical decline of about 30%. It will take about a few years to recover. But based on the strength of the U.S. economy, I think it will be more Shallow.”

• “Bear” haunts! Bill Gates warns of slower global growth amid rising interest rates

Microsoft co-founder and billionaire Bill Gates said on Sunday (May 8) that interest rates could rise high enough to slow the global economy due to the ongoing fallout from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the coronavirus pandemic. . “I’m afraid there is a very strong view that the world economy is going ‘bear’ right now, and that worries me a lot. He explained that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has caused commodity prices to soar, when in fact, “long before the pandemic, the level of government debt was very high and there were already some supply chain issues.”

• U.S. tech slump hits well-known hedge funds

This year, U.S. technology stocks have fallen sharply, and a group of funds that have used this to create brilliant performance have suffered damage. Tiger Global’s long flagship fund lost $16 billion, the largest loss in hedge fund history. ARK Innovation Fund has fallen 11% in the past 3 days, and has fallen 71% from its 2021 high.

• Foreign media: Zelensky opens new terms for peace talks

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday outlined his conditions for entering peace talks with Russia. He demanded the restoration of pre-Russian “invasion” borders, the return of more than 5 million refugees, accession to the European Union, and holding Russian military leaders accountable so that Kyiv would consider accepting a ceasefire.

• Foreign media: US first lady Jill Biden makes surprise visit to Ukraine

US First Lady Jill Biden’s motorcade crossed the border into Ukraine on a secret visit to Ukraine. Jill Biden meets with Ukraine’s first lady and tours schools. It is reported that the convoy passed through the city of Uzhhorod on the Slovakian border and held an hour-long meeting in a public school.

• The new mutant strain is more infectious, and the positive detection rate of the new crown in South Africa reached 31.1%, which is close to the highest record in history

South Africa may have entered the fifth wave of the epidemic. The two subspecies BA.4 and BA.5 of the newly discovered Omicron mutant strain seem to have more proliferative advantages than BA.2 and have strong immunity Escape ability, but they have not been found to differ in pathogenic severity or clinical presentation. As for whether the future trend of the new coronavirus mutation must be “continuous weakening of toxicity”, British experts believe that if one Omicron mutant strain recombines with another new coronavirus mutant strain, it may produce both immune escape and more serious diseases. strains.

• G7 countries pledge to ban Russian crude oil

Leaders of the Group of Seven nations said in a joint statement on Sunday that they would strengthen economic isolation of Russia and escalate a campaign against Russian elites who support President Vladimir Putin. After a virtual meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the leaders said they would cut off key services Russia depends on, further “isolating Russia” in all areas of the economy. They also pledged to gradually reduce dependence on Russian energy, including The import of Russian oil is prohibited.

• World’s largest independent oil trader: It will be more difficult to trade Russian oil from mid-May

Commodities companies will find it more difficult to buy and sell Russian oil from the middle of this month as the European Union tightens sanctions on Russia, the world’s largest independent oil trader Vitol Group said. Russia’s exports of crude oil and related products have fallen from 7.5 million barrels per day in February to around 6.5 million barrels per day, and exports are likely to fall further after May 15.

• Saudi Aramco slashes June oil prices for Asian customers for first time in four months

Saudi Arabia slashed oil prices for Asian customers in June, the first time in four months, as the outbreak weighed on demand, and its state-owned company Saudi Aramco has set the official selling price for its Arabian Light crude to Asia from the same as Oman and Dubai. The premium of $9.35/barrel was cut to $4.4/barrel. In the past two months, Saudi Arabia has raised oil prices to record levels above $100 due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

• Li Jiachao elected as the sixth chief executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region

Li Jiachao was elected as the sixth chief executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. In his campaign platform, Li Jiachao emphasized “strengthening the government’s ability to govern and unite to relieve the people’s difficulties”. He pointed out that in the future, the goal of governance will be results, bringing people to a government that can do things and achieve things, comprehensively enhance Hong Kong’s competitiveness, and lay a solid foundation for Hong Kong’s development.

US stocks resume trading

• The three major U.S. stock indexes closed down collectively on Friday, the S&P and Nasdaq fell for five consecutive weeks, and the energy sector continued to be strong

On May 6, local time, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed down across the board, and the weekly K line fell for five consecutive days, setting a record for the longest losing streak in nearly a decade.

Energy stocks rose collectively, Exxon Mobil rose 1.56%, Chevron rose 2.74%, and ConocoPhillips rose 4.69%, all close to or hitting record highs. Occidental oil, which Buffett had made a big addition to, also rose 4.25% on the day.

• Tesla expects to resume production in mid-May

According to Yicai, people familiar with the matter said that Tesla (TSLA.US)$ is expected to increase production capacity to pre-pandemic levels around mid-May, but did not disclose specific production targets. Tao Lin, Tesla’s global vice president, said: “We are full of confidence in China’s development. We believe that the epidemic is only a short-term test and challenge. We have also seen the ability of all walks of life to respond to challenges during the process of resumption of work. We believe that (production) will be very soon. It can go back to normal.”

• Vale signs long-term contract to supply Tesla with low-carbon nickel

Brazilian miner Vale said on Friday it had signed a long-term contract to supply nickel to electric car maker Tesla. Nickel is a key element used to make most electric vehicle batteries. Vale said the agreement is part of the Brazilian company’s plan to increase sales of its low-carbon, high-purity nickel to the electric vehicle market.

• Post-IPO lock-up period expires, Ford expected to sell some Rivian stake

The $Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US) $ post-IPO lock-up period expired on Sunday, and a flood of Rivian stock is likely to flood the market. Ford is one of the companies that will sell some of its shares. Ford plans to sell 8 million of its 102 million shares.

• Texas Instruments China responds to “layoffs”: no employees have been laid off

Texas Instruments (TXN.US)$ said that China is the most important market in the world, and it will continue to invest in the Chinese market and fulfill its commitments. Earlier it was reported that Texas Instruments (TI) has abolished the MCU R&D team in China and moved the original MCU R&D line to India.

• Top 20 U.S. stocks by turnover last Friday

Hong Kong City Prospects

• ByteDance establishes Douyin Group

All Weather Technology found from the website of the Hong Kong Companies Registry that ByteDance (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. has changed its name to Douyin Group (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd., effective May 6, 2022. ByteDance is fully renamed, and multiple vertical businesses are packaged and listed in Hong Kong soon? According to the Shanghai Securities News, compared with the split and listing of the video sector business that was reported at the end of 2021, ByteDance may package all businesses except Tiktok to land on Hong Kong stocks.

• $Country Garden(02007.HK)$ responded that the relevant pre-sale fund supervision measures in Fuzhou have been lifted

As the real estate gradually stabilized, the leading real estate company Country Garden suffered another false alarm. According to recent market rumors, the supervision accounts of all Country Garden projects in Fuzhou have been frozen. In response, Country Garden responded to Wall Street’s news on May 7 that it was a customer complaint about a project in Fuzhou in which the company participated, and the Fuzhou Housing and Urban-rural Development Bureau took appropriate measures to strengthen the supervision of the project company’s shareholders in order to urge the problem to be solved. Wall Street learned that the project involved was jointly built by Shimao, Country Garden and Poly, with equity ratios of 34%, 33% and 33%, and was operated by Fuzhou Shimao Shirui Real Estate Company. Recently, the project has provided a solution for checking out and withdrawing the parking space due to the need for local maintenance. The freezing of regulatory funds is also to ensure the progress of the program. At present, the pre-sale supervision funds for the Fuzhou Country Garden project can be processed normally after approval, and no threshold is set.

• $Vanke Enterprise (02202.HK)$ : Contracted sales of 30.84 billion yuan in April

Vanke announced that in April 2022, the company will achieve a contracted sales area of ​​1.609 million square meters with a contracted sales value of 30.84 billion yuan; from January to April 2022, the company will achieve a total contracted sales area of ​​7.936 million square meters and a contracted sales value of 137.34 billion yuan.

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Keywords: Hong Kong stock market closed; China’s April trade account, money supply data; BioNtech, Palantir Technologies financial report

On Monday, the day after Buddha’s birthday, the Hong Kong stock market was closed and the US stock market opened normally. Hong Kong stocks started trading on Tuesday.

In terms of economic data, China’s April trade account, money supply data, and US wholesale sales data will be released.

In terms of financial reports, vaccine giant $BioNTech (BNTX.US) $ , meme stock $Palantir Technologies (PLTR.US) $ will announce results.

Niu Niu Chen read:

For most investors, what matters is not how much they know, but how well they realize what they don’t know.
– Buffett

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