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• Fed’s Evans: If inflation remains high, it will raise rates above neutral next year

Chicago Fed President Evans said on Tuesday local time that the central bank may raise the federal funds rate to between 2.25% and 2.5% by the end of the year, and then assess the state of the economy and if inflation remains high by then, further rate hikes may be needed. Evans told an event at the Economic Club of New York that he expects inflation to remain in the 3%-3.5% range through the end of 2022, which is not what policymakers want, So the Fed is likely to raise interest rates above the neutral rate next year.

• Don’t panic! Most of Wall Street speaks out: US inflation peaks, US stocks will rise to 4800 points by the end of the year

While most analysts are still discussing whether U.S. recession fears will affect stock market performance, Julian Emanuel, head of equities, derivatives and quantitative strategies at bullish Evercore ISI, expressed an optimistic view, predicting that U.S. inflation has peaked, and U.S. stocks will be next Start going higher. Emanuel gave his year-end target for the S&P 500, which he expects to reach 4,800.

• Commodities advocate Goldman Sachs says gas may be too high

U.S. NYMEX natural gas futures fell by about 10%, hitting a daily low of $7.039 per million British thermal units, after rising to $8.060 the previous day, the first time since 2008 that it rose above the $8 mark. Analysts at Goldman Sachs said the market’s nervousness “has exacerbated the rally in the U.S. benchmark natural gas beyond what we think is largely reasonable, [but] the U.S. natural gas market lacks the supply and demand responsive mechanisms that force prices lower.” Furthermore, she believes that “the current high volatility environment is likely to persist in the coming months”.

• US real estate giant Fannie Mae: US economy expected to fall into recession next year

The U.S. economy is expected to experience a recession next year, and the U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2022 is slightly lowered by 0.2 percentage points to 2.1%, and the GDP growth forecast for 2023 is lowered to -0.1% from the previous forecast of 2.2%. Our latest forecast includes expectations of a mild recession in the second half of 2023, as we believe that a contraction in economic activity is the most likely path to meeting the Fed’s inflation target given the current pace of wage growth and inflation. It now expects home sales to fall 7.4 per cent this year and 9.7 per cent in 2023. House price growth will slow from 20% in the first quarter to 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023.

• Battery costs soar, but global consumers can’t seem to wait: EV demand remains high

Buyers around the world are still lining up to buy electric vehicles this year even as the price of electric vehicles rises in the market today, subverting the traditional auto industry’s 15-year-old perception that electric vehicle sales will only explode when battery costs come down. The cost of raw materials for various metals in lithium batteries has risen due to sanctions on Russian metals and speculative buying by investors. Global EV demand remains strong despite the average cost of lithium-ion batteries soaring from $105/kWh last year to $160/kWh in the first quarter of this year.

• JPMorgan: Oil could hit $185 a barrel if EU immediately bans Russian oil imports

JPMorgan warned that a blanket, immediate ban could crowd out more than 4 million bpd of Russian oil supplies, pushing Brent up around 65% to $185 a barrel. Analyst Natasha Kaneva said, however, that the market could initially phase out Russian oil supplies in about four months without significantly impacting prices, as was done in phasing out dependence on Russian coal supplies. The bank’s main scenario is much more conservative, predicting a cut in Russian supply to Europe of only half the magnitude of that, or about 2.1 million bpd of disruption by year-end.

US stocks resume trading

• On Tuesday, technology stocks led US stocks to close higher, and the Nasdaq rose more than 2%

The three major U.S. stock indexes closed up collectively, the Dow rose 1.46%, the S&P 500 rose 1.61%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.15%.

Technology stocks were among the top gainers. Software, automobiles, and semiconductors generally rose. Amazon and AMD rose by more than 3%, Tesla, Google, and Intel rose by more than 2%, and Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft rose by more than 1%.

Most of the popular Chinese concept stocks rose, iQiyi rose by more than 8%, Weilai, Xiaopeng Motors, and Bilibili rose by more than 3%, and Alibaba, Ideal Auto, and JD.com fell by more than 1%.

• After the market fell 25%! Netflix’s financial report “kneeled again”, net paying users lost for the first time in more than a decade

Streaming media giant $Netflix (NFLX.US) $ announced the first quarter of 2022 earnings. Netflix lost 200,000 subscribers in the first quarter despite expectations for a slowdown in subscriber growth, which caught investors off guard. The financial report shows that the total number of Netflix Q1 subscribers fell by 200,000 compared with the fourth quarter of last year, far less than the increase of 2.5 million analysts expected. Ten thousand paying users; Q1 revenue was $7.868 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%, slightly lower than market expectations of $7.93 billion; Q1 net income per share was $3.53, better than Wall Street’s expected $2.89. Dragged down by the poor performance in Q1, Netflix’s stock price plummeted more than 25% after the market.

• Lack of help for the acquisition of Twitter? Musk reportedly willing to put in $10 billion to $15 billion in cash

Contemporary Iron Man billionaire Elon Musk is willing to put $10 billion to $15 billion in cash for a $Twitter (TWTR.US) $ bid, The New York Post reported, citing two sources familiar with the situation. The sources also said Musk may also consider borrowing against his 9.1% stake in Twitter if necessary, a move that could raise several billion additional dollars and plans to launch bids in about 10 days.

• Press the “restart button”! Tesla Shanghai factory officially resumed work, 8,000 employees arrived! Promote the coordinated resumption of work by more than 100 suppliers

The latest news shows that after a three-week shutdown, the $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Shanghai Gigafactory officially resumed production on April 19. Tesla said that there is still about a week of inventory of vehicle parts, and is currently actively promoting more than 100 suppliers to resume work and production with the support of relevant government departments, and to smooth the logistics chain.

• IBM’s operating earnings per share were $1.40 on revenue of $14.2 billion in the first quarter

$IBM Corp (IBM.US)$ released its first-quarter 2022 results after the market closed on Tuesday. The financial report showed that the company’s Q1 revenue was $14.2 billion, better than the expected $13.81 billion. IBM’s operating earnings per share in the first quarter were $1.40, compared with consensus estimates of $1.41.

• The world’s largest car company “overweights” hybrid cars: nearly 400 million invested in engine research and development and production

Toyota Motor (TM.US)$ , the world’s largest car company, announced on its official website on Tuesday (April 19) that it will invest $383 million in its four plants in the United States for the research and development of hybrid engines and Production. The engine plant in Huntsville, Alabama, will receive the highest amount of funding ($222 million) for a new production line capable of producing both internal combustion engines and hybrid powertrains. The rest of the funding will be allocated to the company’s three plants in Kentucky ($16 million), Missouri ($109 million) and Tennessee ($36 million).

• Rosenblatt: Buy rating on Google, $4,183 price target

Rosenblatt analyst Barton Crockett started tracking $Google-C (GOOG.US)$ with a Buy rating and a $4,183 price target. Given Alphabet’s new ad privacy restrictions, its leadership in viral video, and its growing success in cloud services, Crockett argues, “no company is better equipped to capitalize on what’s available online and avoid ineffectiveness than Alphabet. Act of.”

• Wells Fargo: Maintain overweight rating on Microsoft, cut target price to $400

Wells Fargo analyst Michael Turrin lowered his price target on Microsoft (MSFT.US) to $ 400 from $425 and maintained an overweight rating on the stock. The analyst said he disagrees with any notion that Microsoft’s peak is over, noting that Microsoft’s dominance in the market will continue to provide a broad base for its long-term cross-selling that remains undervalued for now. Analysts believe that Microsoft’s stock will benefit from a broad shift toward digital, and the company’s platform positioning is particularly favorable amid the current trend.

Yesterday’s top 20 US stocks turnover

Hong Kong City Prospects

• Beishui adds more than HK$1 billion to Tencent and buys more than HK$800 million of Meituan

On Tuesday (April 19), southbound funds bought a net HK$2.995 billion. Tencent Holdings, Meituan-W, and CNOOC received net purchases of HK$1.067 billion, HK$866 million, and HK$546 million, respectively. HKEx topped the list in net selling at HK$396 million. From March 24th, Southbound Funds have been net purchases of CNOOC for 13 consecutive trading days, with a total of approximately HK$5,877.18 million.

• Ascletis-B: 3CLpro inhibitor ASC11 is expected to be an effective drug for the treatment of new coronary pneumonia

$Ascletis Pharma-B(01672.HK)$ announced that its oral small molecule drug candidate ASC11 (3CLpro inhibitor) is expected to become an effective drug for the treatment of new coronary pneumonia. The anti-new coronavirus cell experiment showed that the antiviral activity (EC90) of ASC11 was 31 times (155/5) that of nematevir, 120 times (600/5) of S-217622, ​​and 16 times that of PBI-0451 (78/5). 5) and 7 times (33/5) of EDP-235. Importantly, ASC11 remains active against different variants of the new coronavirus.

• Li Ning: same-store sales in the first quarter recorded a low growth of 20%-30% year-on-year

$LI-NING (02331.HK)$ announced that the same-store sales of the entire platform for the first quarter ended March 31, 2022 will be calculated on the basis of the Li-Ning sales points that have been put into operation at the beginning of the same quarter last year (excluding Li-Ning YOUNG). Recorded 20%-30% low segment growth. In terms of channels, the retail (direct operation) channel recorded a mid-segment growth of 20%-30% and the wholesale (franchise) channel recorded a low-segment growth of 10%-20%, and the e-commerce virtual store business grew by 30% year-on-year -40% mid-segment growth.

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Keywords: U.S. API crude oil inventories for the week; P&G, Netflix, ASML, China Telecom financial reports

On Wednesday , in terms of economic data , the US weekly API crude oil inventories and the US weekly EIA strategic oil reserve inventories will be released.

In terms of events, the 2023 FOMC voting committee and Chicago Fed President Evans delivered a speech at the Economic Club of New York; in 2024 the FOMC voting committee and San Francisco Fed President Daly delivered a speech on the economic outlook.

In terms of financial reports , $ Procter & Gamble (PG.US)$ , $Netflix (NFLX.US)$ , $ASML (ASML.US)$ , $ASM Pacific (00522.HK)$ , $China Telecom (00728.HK ) )$ etc. will announce the financial report.

Niu Niu Chen read:

The best way to get something you want is to make yourself worthy of it.

– Charlie Munger

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