Industry Views
In 2021, China’s machine tool market will grow rapidly, and in 2022, the growth rate will decline due to the impact of the epidemic. In 2021, the global machine tool market space is about 71.168 billion US dollars, an increase of 6.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate has increased by 27.2pcts year-on-year, of which the domestic market space is 23.89 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%, and the growth rate has increased by 16.6pcts year-on-year, accounting for 33.57%. Japan exports China’s machine tool orders were 21.03 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 77% year-on-year, reflecting the strong demand for China’s high-end machine tool market. From January to February 2022, the key enterprises of the association maintained double-digit growth. Since March, the industry demand has declined due to the impact of the epidemic. From January to July 22, the revenue of key contact enterprises decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, and from January to July 22 Japan’s export orders for Chinese machine tools fell by 1.81% year-on-year.
China’s high-end CNC machine tools rely on imports, and there is huge room for domestic substitution. According to the data of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the localization rates of low-end and mid-range CNC machine tools in 2018 were 82% and 65% respectively, while the localization rate of high-end CNC machine tools was only 6%, and high-end CNC machine tools were heavily dependent on imports. In 2021, the import value of China’s metal processing machine tools is 7.46 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%. There is huge room for domestic replacement of high-end CNC machine tools.
Starting from the core components, the road to “independent controllability” of China’s high-end CNC machine tools has gradually become clear: the core components of CNC machine tools mainly include CNC systems and functional components (spindles, rolling components, turrets, etc.), we believe that the industrial chain of CNC systems and functional components The foundation is weak and the dependence on imports has led to a slow progress of domestic substitution of high-end CNC machine tools. At present, the technical strength of domestic Kede CNC and Huazhong CNC in the CNC system is gradually catching up with the overseas leaders. On the one hand, OEMs are actively deploying self-made functional components; on the other hand, with the support of policy support and the investment and blessing of manufacturing transformation and upgrading funds, the functional component industry chain is expected to accelerate its maturity. We believe that the road to “independent and controllable” high-end machine tools in China is gradually becoming clear.
The transformation fund is overweight, the first batch of CSI machine tool ETFs have been approved, and the domestic replacement of high-end CNC machine tools with financial support is expected to accelerate: machine tools are technology- and capital-intensive industries. For example, with the support of government subsidies, its R&D expense ratio excluding government subsidies in 2021 will be 28.62%, which is much higher than the central R&D expense ratio. High R&D investment is expected to strengthen long-term competitiveness. At present, the manufacturing industry transformation and upgrading fund is actively investing in machine tool industry chain companies. On September 18, Huaxia CSI Machine Tool ETF and Cathay CSI Machine Tool ETF were approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, bringing positive financial support to the machine tool industry chain. We believe that on the one hand, it is expected to promote the host The factory strengthens R&D investment and continues to increase its investment in technology upgrades and self-made functional components; on the one hand, the current investment covers upstream enterprises in the machine tool industry chain, which is expected to accelerate the maturity of the supply chain of core components, thereby promoting the development of domestic alternatives.
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