Original link: https://headsalon.org/archives/9026.html
God’s New Ranch #19: The Broken Ladder
Whig
December 7, 2019
As discussed in previous chapters, the demographic transition has weakened the status competition of the middle and upper classes and cut off the downward flow waterfall, while the welfare system has provided a safe haven for the losers or abandoners of the status competition, allowing them to avoid being condemned by fate. What will such a strange and perhaps unprecedented evolutionary situation bring us?
inward
The first consequence of the transformation is that the upper-class culture loses its outward tension. In the past, because of the high reproductive rate and limited capacity of the upper-middle class, it always had a strong tendency to expand. Under different institutional and geopolitical conditions, this Tension may manifest itself in geographical colonization and conquest (see Chapter 7), or in the exploration and development of career development space.
Corresponding to the outward tension is a confident and aggressive upper-class culture, because those who successfully maintain their upper-class status are often successful pioneers (territory or career space), and success will give them self-confidence and belief in their own culture They are superior to other species and are qualified to replace them, or at least achieve a dominant position; of course, there are also some upper classes in society that lack the tendency to pioneer and release tension mainly through internal fighting (see Chapter 8).
The demographic transition has largely eliminated outward tension, but the instinct of people to compete with each other has not changed. As a result, the spearhead of the attack has turned to the inside of the society. In the large-scale internal struggles, the latter has a clear direction: to compete for resources, power and status, while the direction and target of the former attack is uncertain, which is very similar to the immune system in autoimmune diseases (autoimmune diseases). Attacks on organs, similar attacks also occur in allergies (allergic diseases), the difference is that the latter requires the stimulation of some foreign allergen, while the former does not.
Interestingly, autoimmunity and allergies (at least in part) are due to the fact that patients have too little exposure to foreign antigens, the immune system is overly idle and the sensitivity is raised too high . Swarming, very similar in principle: those still combative and aggressive members of the elite, whose fighting talents have nowhere to go because there is no obvious external enemy to attack, start fighting among themselves, the reasons that induce this fighting It can be very trivial, nonsensical and arbitrary, and the participants may not have clear and practical goals or demands.
It was against this background that Western culture was involved in a self-denying and self-defeating vortex. The cultural elites competed to attack the core values of modern Western civilization. The starting point and reasons for the attacks were varied, anti-Christianity, anti-war, anti-imperialism, Anti-capitalism, anti-consumerism, anti-science, anti-globalization, anti-big corporation, relativism, postmodernism, new feminism, environmentalism, multiculturalism, poststructuralism, deconstructionism, neo-Gramscianism, Intersectionalism…, there are many, and they are often fighting with each other. Only on the core issue of anti-Western and anti-American imperialism can they find common ground and join hands to occupy Wall Street.
It is true that there are anti-establishment cultural anomalies in any society in any era, and there are always a small number of unsatisfactory upper-class elites who will criticize mainstream values as a means of competing with the establishment in power. For this reason, they sometimes fabricate a The golden age that never existed, or the depiction of a distant society that is little known as a paradise; there is a subtle motive behind the second approach: showing that one knows how to appreciate foreign cultures has always been a way for the upper class to gain prestige in this way, because it demonstrates that they have a greater range of activities, a wider cultural horizon, and greater exposure to foreign things, which are associated with high status (see Chapter 2), whereas the lower classes are culturally Always more narrow and exclusive.
Yet, even with these motives in mind, a large half of the cultural elite of status, prestige, and well-being are berating the very system that underpins the prosperity of their societies, allowing them to enjoy a level of abundance and freedom never seen before or anywhere else. The value system is unprecedented, and these elite positions are always enthusiastically pursued by young people, especially college students, and these pursuers are also beneficiaries of the system, not from the margins or the lower classes.
And these attackers actually know in their hearts that they benefit from the system, and their honest enough bodies reveal this: those societies that are immune to its attacks and even often praised by it do not attract them to emigrate, although no one stops them .
To understand this spectacle, it is necessary to go back to the historical background of the competition for human status.
In early societies, an aspiring young man had to “do something” to prove himself if he wanted to establish a significant status for himself. This could be an early morning ambush against a hostile group (as in the Andamanese), [2] or a headhunting (Ilongo), [3] or a predatory rape of chastity (Samoans), [4] or a cattle raid (East African pastoralists), or a horse raid (Great Plains Indians), Those who don’t get anything done are stigmatized by their peers, muffled in groups, held their heads high, or even considered adequate adults.
In these societies, the critical period for status competition is adolescence and early adulthood, when untried possibilities are still open and many of your important social relationships (in-laws, work partners, mentors and brothers, followers) etc.) have not yet been bound, and others have not yet made up their minds about you, so it is time to give it a go. If you wait until these things are settled, and then want to fight for the front and change your face, the hope is too slim; Therefore, adolescence restlessness is a very common cultural phenomenon. Under the effect of soaring male hormones, men in this age group are extremely manic and restless, fighting for courage, because these few short years will largely determine their future life. social position. [5]
But in large societies where hierarchies are firmly established, the traditional avenues of unrest are largely unworkable (except in some borderlands), and the competition for status turns to more peaceful causes: learn a good trade, get a good job, organize a Engineering, repairing aqueducts, building a temple, creating a work, getting fame in an examination, becoming an official… Although these careers also benefit from ambition, drive and competitiveness (they are also related to hormones), but more Patience, restraint and self-discipline are required.
Different from the previous small egalitarian society, in a large hierarchical society, only a few lucky ones can achieve success in a certain career, and most people have to accept a mediocre or even humble status. Competition, limited resources, strict hierarchical barriers, armed defense of vested interests, and (in some societies) strong judicial guarantees for established rights force them to put aside their edge and succumb to a lower but at least acceptable level. standing position.
These conditions have fundamentally changed in recent generations, with the competition for upper-middle status weakened by declining fertility rates, competition still fierce but less severe, and losers (or those who are not fully committed to the competition) have plenty of Opportunity to get a sub-optimal outcome that is still comfortable, on the bright side, it encourages some people to adopt bolder and aggressive strategies, to explore, innovate and challenge authority, but it also has a destructive side, it makes some people unscrupulous It is necessary to find the target of attack, because although the competition has been weakened, the youthful restlessness instinct will not change in a short time, and at the same time, because the external expansion has stopped, the attack is often directed at internal targets.
Different from the conventional competition for resources and power in the past, this is more like a game-style competition, just like a sports competition. Although the participants also have the pursuit of power pleasure and achievement glory, they are divorced from the actual utilitarian standards, precisely because The nature of this game, with its erratic goals, can point anywhere, as long as it is exciting enough.
In the era of crazy revolutions in the first half of the 20th century, most of the radicals who were keen to subvert the existing order came from the upper elite, many of whom were descendants of the aristocracy, and few of them were real proletarians; Mischievous hairy children will be quickly and ruthlessly suppressed by their elder brothers, but now it is different. The loose resource conditions and the long-term peace of society have improved the sense of security of the upper class, so they have become more willing to tolerate such restless behavior. In more recent times, this tolerance has been further escalated by the nannyization of the elite’s attitude towards young people.
So we see a strange scene. The basic rules of the game that determine social status are still the same as in the past. The middle class is still struggling to maintain a decent life and strive to climb up. The same as in the past, however, every generation of people who successfully climbed to the top, a considerable number of their children will rebel against the values and moral norms that helped their parents achieve their achievements and gave them a superior position, becoming a destructive attack on the moral order Power, although the proportion of the population of these apostates is not very high, but their wealth, status, good educational background and artistic taste, extensive social relations, and a lot of free time allow them to occupy schools, media, It is the most important communication node of literature, art, film and television, etc., so it has an overwhelming influence on cultural trends and ideological trends.
rebel hero
The above trend is also reinforced by another factor. The modern open class system and developed capital market have created some rocket-like high-speed passages for rising status. The requirements for the endowment combination of successful people are very different, and become more narrow and single. Because of the finely divided market, as long as you have one thing that is outstanding, and its market value is recognized by investors, they will help you match it. Gather all the advantages you don’t have, and open up all the thorny roads that you can’t break through by yourself, whether it is an inventor, a business model innovator, an actor, an athlete, or a model (see Chapter 14).
This in itself is a great thing. Many talents that would have been buried have been brought into play, and many innovations that have not survived the difficult development period have been carried forward. However, its cultural consequences are not necessarily positive. It makes some frivolous and arrogant, disregarding morals Norms, even geniuses with imperfect personalities and serious antisocial tendencies also have the opportunity to become famous, but if there is no in-depth division of labor, no lawyers, professional managers and investors to pave the way for them, they will go through the thorny career development road by themselves Dealing with all kinds of people and dealing with various cooperation and transaction relationships, they are almost destined to stumble in a certain link and be eliminated.
This situation first appeared in the literary and artistic circles, then in the film and television entertainment circles, and then in the sports circles. In contemporary times, with the rise of the venture capital industry, it has extended to the technological innovation industry. Two notable examples are John McAfee (John McAfee). McAfee and Elon Musk; such villainous stars do not necessarily represent a high percentage of the successful, but enough to provide rebellious youth with a steady stream of role models to emulate and cultural heroes to fuel their revolutionary momentum.
elite bubbles
The weakening of competitive pressure and the cessation of external expansion led to another consequence: the culture became increasingly feminized (feminized), and the middle and upper classes became more and more delicate and weak. This can be seen even in their restless and rebellious behavior. 1936 -During the Spanish Civil War in 1938, 50,000 to 60,000 revolutionary youths from dozens of Western countries flocked to Iberia, and more than 15,000 people died there. However, some violent terrorist groups such as the Red Brigades and the Weather Underground can still be organized sporadically, while today’s rebellious youth will only wear a famous brand and sit on the street taking selfies.
At the same time, they are increasingly reluctant to leave the comfortable little world they are familiar with and explore new worlds. In the century before the First World War, more than 20 million British people left their homeland and immigrated to various parts of the world, and 70% of them went to Outside of the British Empire, [7] many graduates of prestigious schools regard overseas work as the starting point of their careers, with the world in mind, and the four seas as their home. In his own comfort zone, he is ignorant and lacks interest in the outside world.
This retreat occurs not only at the international level, where Western elites lose interest in the Third World, but also within Western society, where cultural barriers between classes continue to deepen, and the upper and middle classes move into highly exclusive neighborhoods and form their own towns and cities. School districts, going to their own church, the life of the lower class is becoming more and more distant and blurred in their vision, many middle and upper class have the most popular star, favorite sport, favorite car model, and most common entertainment in the lower class, The most popular TV series, beer brands, and fast food chains are all ignorant and unheard of. In the words of Charles Murray, they hide in the “elite bubble” (elite bubble) they have constructed for themselves. [8]
It is true that there has always been a differentiation of living space between classes. The difference is that in the past, this differentiation was shown as a fairly continuous gradient without a particularly steep fault. In the community where any particular individual lives, there is a local small ladder. Among the neighbors of a rural yeoman, there are not only squires and lawyers who are higher than him, but also farm laborers and blacksmiths who are lower than him. The status gradient of urban communities is even richer, although rich and poor areas can also be roughly identified, But far less than the neat class segregation produced by the suburbanization movement of the 20th century.
Several factors have deepened the residential segregation in residential space. One is the change of transportation conditions (see Chapter 10), and the other is the change of industrial model. The rise of chain retail/service industry has eliminated a large number of shopkeepers. The middle-class position is very important in the traditional lower-class communities. The scale of manufacturing has a similar effect. Many workshops and small factories that utilize labor nearby no longer exist, and their original bosses do not need to live in the lower-class communities.
The third factor is the welfare system. As I have explained before (Chapter 17), the welfare system deprives middle- and upper-class individuals in lower-class communities of their status as community leaders, and the security and moral problems it brings aggravate their retention. The cost of being there, thus hastening its escape.
A fourth factor is an egalitarian culture, which may be counterintuitive to many, but it makes sense: in a world where socioeconomic status is destined to be unequal, to live in a highly egalitarian culture If you believe that everyone has similar talents and potentials, enjoys the same grace of God, deserves the same wealth and glory, and has the same The taste for life and taste for art under the same conditions, and the same moral standards…, so that no one has the right to pity, scorn, reprimand or instruct his neighbor, or condescend to show kindness, or possess higher than others, then, living in a community with vastly different conditions can make you uncomfortable, because the reality you witness impacts your beliefs every day, and you can’t help but come up with things you have always hated. Thoughts: Why is he like a dou who will never be able to support him? Some people can’t learn how to teach, maybe they are too stupid? Why do so many people like something so vulgar? These children are too pitiful. Can’t their parents work harder and pay more attention? He can even do such a thing, he is simply inferior to a beast! Their minds are so obstinately closed, and so preoccupied with stupid and banal ideas, that I reckon they’d better get out of public affairs, and yet they have a vote!
Whatever the reason, residential segregation is easily achieved spontaneously through individual dispersive selection once the tendency to congregate of the same kind has arisen, as Thomas Schelling’s analysis shows, as long as economic conditions (or any other demographic statistical indicators) have initial differences between communities (this can just happen randomly without any reason), and some people are dissatisfied with the distribution of their communities, for example, he feels that there are too many poor people, or too few people with artistic taste , they may move to a community whose indicator is more in line with their wishes, but their moving out further reduces the value of this indicator in this community, so those remaining people who have similar tendencies but not as strong as them find themselves waiting for I can’t go on anymore, so I also move away, and the cycle accelerates until it reaches a new equilibrium point. [9]
One of the consequences of hiding in the elite bubble is that the ideology and political ideas of the upper class are increasingly out of touch with social reality. Due to their extreme ignorance of the living conditions and real difficulties of the middle and lower classes in the third world and their own country, they offer policies aimed at helping the middle and lower classes. The prescriptions often smell like “why not eat minced meat”, which at best misses the point and does nothing, and at worst seriously aggravates their situation.
For example, they think that raising the legal minimum wage can improve the lives of the lower class. However, in the West today, the biggest problem for the lower class is unemployment. Long-term unemployment is the main channel for the poor to slip into the poverty trap. As long as there are stable workers, even if the salary is not high, You can also live a decent life, and the minimum wage law will just drive some low-skilled workers out of the job market and push forward the poverty trap; similarly, they wage the battle against sweatshops and child labor in the third world, but they don’t know how to leave The Bangladeshi girls from the factory did not go to school but went to the streets as prostitutes. [10]
They see traditional marriage as obsolete and work hard to “destigmatize” single mothers, that is, remove the moral pressure to conceive before marriage and have children outside of marriage, thinking that it will liberate women from patriarchal oppression This may be true for themselves, but for the lower-class girls and their children, this is another fast track to slipping into the poverty trap; The elite children are equally smart, eager to learn, self-disciplined and motivated, and they are also far away from the temptation of depravity, crime and street gangs.
They push for increasingly stringent government regulations on the quality of goods and services, and for the judicial system to impose ever-increasing liability without fault on producers, [13] without caring that the resulting costs to producers will eventually It is reflected in the price, and the poor are the least able to withstand price increases, so the actual effect of these controls is to reduce the burden of screening and vigilance against quality risks for the middle and upper classes at the cost of increasing the living costs of the poor.
They promote organic food, but they don’t know (or pretend not to know) that the price tags on the supermarket’s organic shelves make the poor have to walk around. Meat, milk and eggs are still luxuries, and the most urgent problem is to meet the basic calorie intake. [14] For this reason, hundreds of millions of people are still taking cassava as the staple food at the risk of poisoning, [15] There are hundreds of millions more Vitamin A deficiency due to overreliance on rice kills hundreds of thousands of children and blinds many more each year, and a solution to this problem – genetically modified Golden Rice – was developed in the 1990s, but Due to the obstruction of the green organic movement, it has not been promoted so far. [16]
Greta Thunberg, the latest popular anti-warming fighter, is the best image spokesperson for this meat-eating culture. This 16-year-old girl from an elite Swedish family believes that a satellite communication and navigation device The non-powered sailing boat, a luxury toy of the contemporary rich, [17] is a viable substitute for a commercial airliner as a tool for transoceanic travel, considering that two random chairs in her living room cost 18,140 euros (excluding freight), [ 18] This magical idea may not be so inconceivable.
The elite culture that is out of touch with reality is increasingly shrinking into a closed game for self-entertainment, which has become irrelevant to the world outside the circle, thus losing the ability to penetrate downward, because the masses who are busy with daily necessities do not know what they are talking about , I don’t understand what kind of tricks they are playing, and it is impossible to follow and emulate. After all, how many people are interested in figuring out what cultural appropriation or intersectionality means, or what each representative in the large string of letters LGBTTQQIAAP What, the poor in Long Island City, New York, probably have a hard time figuring out how getting Amazon out of the way [19] would benefit them.
cowboy empire
At the same time as the culture ruptured, another pillar of the global value ladder began to crumble. In fact, this pillar was destroyed once during the First World War, until the United States partially took over the role played by the British Empire after World War II The role (see Chapter 15) was later reestablished, but the nature and effects of the two empires were very different.
The United States has a long tradition of isolationism, neither interested nor involved in affairs outside the Americas, but this does not mean that it lacks the drive to expand, but because the North American continent already provides enough room for expansion, in fact, very little There are countries that have expanded steadily and rapidly like the United States. From 1791 to 1912, the United States established a new state every three and a half years on average. In terms of area, each of them is a big country in Europe. [20]
Whether it is the Manifest Destiny or the Monroe Doctrine, it shows that the American elites are fully aware of this expansion, and even a major motivation for the Revolution of Independence was the London authorities’ efforts to limit colonists’ expansion to the west of Appalachia. Dissatisfaction with pioneering; even in the 19th century, when the British Empire was in full swing, calls for the annexation of Canada continued. [twenty one]
So the United States does not lack the potential for empire, but the environmental conditions have not allowed it to develop into a fully functioning empire. Its expansion resistance in North America is too small, its opponents are too weak, and the territory it has acquired is too vast to force it to be like the United Kingdom. Developing a set of institutional framework and governing machinery required to maintain a huge empire with extremely diverse cultures and extremely complex internal structures, as well as the diplomatic skills and treaty system required to deal with many powerful and sophisticated competitors, and the cause of the empire will be Be prepared for the high cost (including money and blood donation).
This limitation has been broken through since the Spanish-American War in 1898. At that time, the expansion of the United States in the North American continent was coming to an end (the establishment of New Mexico and Arizona in 1912 can be regarded as the end of this expansion process), and the Caribbean and Pacific Ocean began to expand. Attracting more and more American interest, the United States’ important overseas territories (Philippines, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Guam, Guantanamo, Panama Canal Zone) were all acquired in the decade between the Spanish-American War and World War I Yes, the decision to fight World War I itself was a sign that she was ready to abandon isolationism, but at this time, the demographic transition had quietly begun, the fertility rate was falling sharply, and the immigration peak of the late 19th century had long since receded, and then It was another blow from the Great Depression. As a result, the imperial eagle claws that had just begun to wave outward quickly retracted.
Another factor hindering the development of the American Empire is its profound egalitarian tradition. Among the four major streams that constitute the foundation of American culture, the Puritans in New England and the Quakers in the Delaware Valley are all strong egalitarians. The Scottish-Irish frontier people in Balachia also had a highly egalitarian cultural temperament, but they were not so ideological. Only the southern planters represented by Virginia gentlemen had aristocratic traditions and were elitists. [twenty two]
As analyzed in the previous section, if we want to live an egalitarian life, we must build a highly homogeneous society and form a community with people who are similar in all aspects. This is true for local communities and countries. Imperialism and egalitarianism are inherently incompatible; in fact, the contradiction between heterogeneity and egalitarianism has surfaced many times in American history, and ultimately ended with egalitarians winning.
The first is the issue of slavery. Although northerners have moral motives for opposing slavery, fear that the introduction of a large number of blacks will destroy cultural homogeneity is also an important reason. Therefore, many abolitionists hope to send blacks back to Africa, but Virginia nobles do not. Wouldn’t mind being in the same society as black people because they don’t demand equality and don’t give black people the right to vote.
The same is true in the attitude towards the Indians. In the eyes of the ruling elite in London, the Indians, like Indians and African natives, are potential imperial subjects. Although their status is temporarily lower than that of the British, they will eventually be regarded as a member. The nation is included in the pluralistic structure of the empire, so they hope that the colonists can live in harmony with them as much as possible, and in the eyes of the colonists, the Indians are a roadblock to their westward development, and they must be removed, because as egalitarians, They cannot tolerate heterogeneous beings as their community partners, so it is not difficult to understand that among American political leaders, the stronger the tendency towards equality, the tougher their attitude on Indian issues, such as Jefferson and Jackson.
The contradiction between empire and homogeneity is also manifested in the process of the territorial expansion of the United States. Before and after the Mexican-American War (1846-48), the United States had a campaign to annex the whole of Mexico, but this call was soon dismissed because of After the war, the United States only claimed a piece of the northernmost and most sparsely populated territory from Mexico. The opponents reasoned that the admission of millions of Hispanics, Indians, and Catholics as citizens would shake the the foundations of American society. [twenty three]
The same reason also hindered Puerto Rico’s state-building efforts for a long time, and kept Alaska and Hawaii out of the gate for a long time. They were finally admitted into the Federation after the proportion of white people increased to a high enough level. In the first 40 years of the 20th century, Alaska The proportion of whites in Hawaii has always hovered at about half, and it increased to 72% in 1940-50, and more than 3/4 before the state was established. Japanese are tied as the largest ethnic group, and ten years later they surpassed Japanese with a 38% advantage. [25]
Because it is culturally and politically at odds with the role of empire, when the United States was forced to assume imperial responsibility after World War II, it was very reluctant and unprepared. There are only a few urgent reasons why it must shoulder this burden: 1) If the victories won at a huge price are easily discarded, they cannot be accountable to the people. 2) When Europe seems to be unable to protect itself, it cannot watch the home of Western civilization in which it was born be destroyed. 3) If the world is allowed to fall into disorder 4) Intercontinental missiles, nuclear bombs, long-range bombers, missile submarines and other new weapons will make America no longer alone in the old world Moreover, isolationism is no longer a viable strategy.
With the rapid escalation of the Cold War, the United States quickly adapted to its new role, actively forming treaty alliances, deploying a network of military bases, helping Europe rebuild, taking the lead in organizing international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. (Peace Corps) to send tens of thousands of young people around the world to engage in voluntary service; when the unfavorable situation in the region changes, they are not afraid to use force to stop it, from Berlin, Turkey, Greece, North Korea, Indochina, to Guatemala, Cuba, Chile, Nicaragua, and Grenada all tried to contain the expansion of the Soviet Union, and fought two costly wars for this.
However, although it has worked hard enough, so far the United States’ imperial career can only be regarded as barely passing, because it at least won the Cold War, preserved Europe, expanded its sphere of influence, and maintained a not-so-satisfactory global market. However, Constructing a ladder of values, promoting a market order, and especially where it can bring about sustainable cultural and institutional change has been lackluster, and often has failed miserably and repeatedly, so as to avoid the burden of political support. The burden of responsibility for state-building has become a rare consensus among contemporary American political elites.
The main reason for these failures is that the United States lacks a long-term commitment to the regions it is trying to influence. Every time it sends troops overseas to intervene in regional affairs, politicians can’t wait to promise voters that they will withdraw quickly once the mission is completed, “never stay One day”, as a result, not long after the Americans left, the new order that was painstakingly established often collapsed very quickly, and the region fell into chaos again, and even became worse than before the intervention. In the words of Niall Ferguson (Niall Ferguson), the US President It is to create one “disposable empire” after another. [26]
The modern market order is produced through a very unique cultural/institutional evolution path. [27] Outside its original place, it needs the continuous action of external forces to take root. The role of external forces is reflected in two aspects. First, the local authorities Their fate must be tied to the big ship of market order, that is, as long as the ship does not sink, they can continue to enjoy prosperity and wealth, even richer than before (like the princes of Hyderabad), and once they have another , they will be punished immediately. Secondly, talented and ambitious people in this society must have the opportunity to stand out in the market order and climb upwards. The Victorian Empire was just such an external force exerted on its colonies and spheres of influence (see Chapter 15) to enforce and enforce the value system that underpinned that order.
Clearly, this is an unequal dominance-subordination relationship, which is precisely the kind of relationship that Americans with deeply rooted egalitarian traditions are least willing to enter into; as egalitarians, they prefer to believe that all peoples have the same propensity, willingness, and ability to build their respective good societies, and those that fail to do so are either (as Hollywood is fond of showing) obstructed by a handful of villains, or (as activists in academia and international organizations often argue) That) is because they are bound by poverty and backwardness.
Guided by the notion that the interveners need only get rid of the villains, help create a new constitution, arrange fair elections, provide generous economic aid, and everything will be fine; in fact, this line has repeatedly failed, and its failure has almost It was doomed from the very beginning, because since all forces are convinced that you will evacuate soon, they must start from the premise that you do not exist to plan their own future, and seek their own according to the old local rules of the game that they are already familiar with. If you don’t take seriously any schemes, agreements and institutional arrangements imposed in your presence, then you will only base your strategy on quicksand, and you will be abandoned at any time (just like the Kurds have been abandoned time and time again) . [28]
Economic aid is also ineffective, and even counterproductive, because first, improvements in living conditions do not necessarily lead to institutional improvements, especially when that improvement is due to pie-in-the-sky. It can be seen from experience that, secondly, and more importantly, donors simply do not have the ability (and often are not allowed) to distribute property directly to the people they are intended to help, and can only rely on local authorities to complete the distribution. This gives the latter a resource out of thin air that can be used to buy loyalty or appease grievances. Such resources can only be obtained through taxation, which weakens the dependence of those in power on taxation. In many regimes, It is this fiscal constraint that gives rulers some scruples about expropriating the private sector and avoiding excessive damage to the tax base, and when this scruple is lifted, they become even more unscrupulous. [29]
The smooth transformation of Germany and Japan after World War II may have fueled confidence in American-style imperialism, but these two cases are not comparable to other American interventions, because Germany and Japan were prosperous and successful before slipping into militarism society, and the U.S. commitment there was long-term, with the occupation of Japan lasting seven years (Ryukyu lasted 27 years), [30] the occupation of Germany ended in 1949 (Saryan to 1957), and only in 1955 The full return of governance rights, and the complete restoration of sovereignty will wait until the four major occupying powers approve the unification of Germany in 1990. [31] In addition, Germany and Japan still have treaty obligations to the United States militarily, and there are also the largest overseas military presence of the United States and Numerous military bases. [32]
In fact, the few countries that completed system transformation under the influence of the United States after the war were all at the forefront of the Cold War, facing huge external threats, and could hardly survive without the protection of the United States.施加的行为准则便对这些政权的行为构成了一种外部的宪法性约束，成为当地掌权者或权力竞争者不得不遵守的游戏规则。 [33]
冷战结束后，曾有过一个短暂的转型欢快期，以至弗兰西斯·福山（Francis Fukuyama）天真的宣告历史正在走向其完满终点， [34]其实那只是因为另一部平行阶梯的垮塌而造成的一轮回涌，从更长时段看，阵营对抗的结束和共同敌人的消失只会更加削弱美帝国原本就先天不足的秩序推行力；911后，重振帝国的呼声一度高涨，可是因为一次性帝国的本性未改，一时热情和高昂代价换来的又是一连串失败与放弃。
歧路滋蔓
人类固有的地位竞争本能让他们在每个局部小生态中都要争出个强弱高下，假如已经有一部社会大阶梯从外部世界延伸进了这个小生态，那么竞争的焦点就会聚集于如何沿着这部大阶梯往上爬，当地社会的价值标准也会沿该阶梯的引力梯度而被重塑，假如不存在这部大阶梯，那么一部独立的小阶梯便会从本地竞争中浮现，并且创造出其独特的价值体系（见第13章）。
不过，现实情况大多介于这两种纯粹状态之间，即，虽然有一部大阶梯伸进了当地，但并非所有人都有望沿着它往上爬，或甘愿接受较低的位置，于是那些有能力也有野心却无望挤进主路的人，便在体系之外另辟竞技场，在等级结构上形成一条分支岔路，对主流价值构成一股离心力量。
对于特定社会局部，哪股力量占上风，在多大程度上成为支配性力量，取决于哪条道路对那些力争上进但尚未选定奋斗方向的年轻人更具吸引力，在古代，妨碍人们踏上主路的，往往是主路本身的狭窄拥堵，且路障重重，现代社会的等级开放将主路变得极为畅通，造就了几轮社会大流动，也吸干了许多岔路支流，可是好景不长，最近几代人中，朝向主路的流动再次受阻，但这次的原因却和以往全然不同，并非因为主路变得更拥挤，而是上层的退缩令阶梯下部因失于维护而朽坏，不再能帮助年轻人踏足上攀。
这一朽坏表现在几个方面：1）当中上层退缩进他们的舒适气泡之后，下层失去了引导他们进入主路的效仿楷模，也没有了迫使他们走在阳光大道上的道德约束，2）上层精英整天用高音喇叭告诉他们，主流中产价值是坏的，甚至是邪恶的，根本不值得效仿，而那些仍然奉行着这套价值的中产多数，已乖乖闭上了嘴，3）几乎所有本可帮助下层中有潜力者向上爬升的文化与制度元素（例如婚姻伦理和学校纪律），都遭受着上层精英的无情批判，其中许多已被消灭殆尽（见第18章）。
当通往主路的匝道堵塞，地位竞争便很自然的转移到其他方向，在西方下层，最常见的岔路是街头帮派，在帮派世界中，自文明起源以来所确立的美德都变得一文不值，竞争将依循古老的丛林法则展开，暴力、凶狠、狡诈和残忍将帮助你赢得老大地位；阿列克斯·科特洛维茨（Alex Kotlowitz）描绘了居住在芝加哥贫民区是何种感觉：整个生活被笼罩在无休止帮派战争的恐怖阴影之下，母亲们整天提心吊胆，不知何时会传来儿子的死讯，活生生就像前文明时代的丛林社会。 [35]
和古代丛林社会一样，当代城市丛林中，随老大地位而来的是权力和财富，以及更重要的——性伙伴与后代数量，几乎所有相关研究都显示，下层社会中，犯罪倾向与性伙伴及后代数量呈显著正相关，帮派地位同样如此：老大最多，帮派成员其次，非帮派成员最少，一份英国的同龄组研究发现，反社会倾向最高的10%男性，其后代在下一代中的比例高达27%，这一繁殖优势，比第11章的极简模型中假设的数字，要高得多。 [36]
因阶梯断裂而滋生的岔路不仅出现在西方社会内部，也表现在国际层面上，随着帝国力量的收缩和西方的自我文化否定，通往旧引力中心的道路渐次淤塞，强弱不一的诸多局部引力中心纷纷滋长，全球价值阶梯随之而脱臼垮塌。
脱臼过程分为两个阶段，第一阶段是去殖民化，市场秩序的扩张被截断在众多新兴主权国家的边界之外；在英帝国势力所及的维多利亚秩序中，各国政府不仅被要求在国际关系中遵守帝国推行的游戏规则，也须在处理国内事务和对待自己国民的方式上符合一些最起码的标准，这是因为，假如在一个国家，外国商人的生意伙伴随时可能被诛杀，监禁，抄没家产，其税收和管制有着高度任意性，司法系统缺乏起码的透明度和公正性，财产得不到保护，契约无法执行，那就很难成为一块对帝国有价值的市场空间。
在帝国的正式部分（即殖民地），规范直接从顶层向下推行，其主干是一个普通法司法系统，而在非正式部分，则以条约、治外法权和必要时的军事干预（即炮舰政策）来推行，这样，至少与国际贸易和投资活动有关的现代经济部门将首先被纳入新秩序，而随着贸易和工业发展，越来越多的人口和社会局部被卷入现代体系，投身现代部门的那些人社会地位也随之提升，由此完成新秩序的扩张。
一战后，这一秩序开始被威尔逊体系取代，美国式平等主义被从个人层面类推比附到了国际关系上，国家主权和对等关系上升为国际法的基本原则，经历两战之间的过渡期，到二战后，威尔逊体系得到全面落实，这一新体系仍然支持自由贸易和全球市场，但维护它的大国，已不能将干预之手伸进主权边界之内。
1956年的苏伊士危机可视为新体系最终确立的标志，当时纳赛尔政府将苏伊士运河收归国有，并封锁提兰海峡（Straits of Tiran），英法随即联合以色列出兵干预，却被美国以抛售英镑债券和配合海湾国家实施石油禁运相威胁而强力阻止。 [37]
威尔逊体系就造成了这样一种局面：一些国家的当权者发现，他们可以不必在国内推进市场制度，同时却又能享受全球市场带来的好处，因为他们可以把自己变成一个垄断性的国际市场参与者，比如建立一家垄断性进出口公司，包揽对外贸易，这样自己就成了国外商人在该国的唯一交易对手，因而外商的经营风险便和该国其他人的死活与财产安全完全无关，他们也无需关心当地的制度质量，唯一需要关注的是当权者本身的信用状况，而这一风险是可以通过恰当的交易安排得到控制的。
最典型的例子是海湾石油国，现代市场秩序所造就的能源消费市场，石油工业体系，安全的国际航路，和低廉的交易费用，让这些国家的一小撮当权家族富的流油，因为财富来的如此容易且看起来永无止境，他们毫无动力推进国内变革，外商也满足于一个熟悉的生意伙伴，尽管对方的垄断地位会削弱他们的议价能力，但总比局势动荡导致无生意可做要好。
石油只是一个例子，更多国家的情况没那么纯粹，但原理类似，一般而言，一个国家若要成为市场秩序的原生地，或让它落地生根，成为其积极维护者，就需要满足一系列严苛的文化与制度条件，相反，若只是成为市场秩序的受益者，条件就远没有那么严格。
即便我们撇开宪政，法治，个人主义等深层根基不论，在相对浅表的层次上也不难看出原生地与受益者的差别：培育出一个能够源源不断涌出技术与商业模式创新的产业体系很难，但模仿或利用既有的技术和商业模式则容易的多，建立一个繁荣健康的证券或大宗商品交易市场很难，但没有这种市场的国家同样可得益于它们，清除海盗，保障远洋航路安全畅通，曾是一项艰巨而漫长的任务，而如今世界各国皆受益于此，无论是否对此做出过贡献。
这些全球市场秩序的非建设性受益者，构成了一种局部的价值引力中心，他们的巨大财富以及这些财富带来的煊赫权势，吸引着当地年轻人的敬畏目光和他们的奋斗攀爬方向，他们从中习得的价值取向和行为规范都是和市场秩序格格不入甚至背道而驰的，因为决定谁能从上述垄断利益中分得一杯羹的权力争夺，遵循着与市场竞争全然不同的游戏规则。
表面上看，在现代传媒的助推之下，西方文化的渗透力似乎空前强大，但实际上，传播渗透的内容十分肤浅，往往局限于消费品，影视娱乐，流行时尚，稍微深入一点的，还会效仿西方的技术，企业组织和生活方式，这些对于改变一个社会的文化与制度根基是远远不够的，那些渗透所及的社会中，人们或许会笼统的意识到西方社会总是在冒出一些好东西，人民看似也过上了好日子，可是对于这些好处是在何种价值传统和制度环境中创造出来的，哪些禀赋和习性帮助个人参与这些创造并分享其成果，他们是懵然无知的，好莱坞不会告诉他们真相，反倒会向他们灌输相反的价值观，拜访当地的记者，背包客，人类学家，NGO社工，和平队成员，也多半会赞美那些让他们长期陷于困境之中的本地传统，以展示自己友善宽容的美德，和懂得欣赏他乡异俗的品味，以及敢于反叛自身传统的勇气和洒脱。
深层次的渗透只能通过近距离现场亲身示范而实现，因为效仿身边成功人士的举止是人类最惯熟的调整自身行为的方式，在新近富裕起来的农村，最流行的汽车品牌和房屋装修风格，往往由村里最早发达的那个人决定，可是在那些被强权垄断隔绝于全球市场之外的社会，有为上进青年能在身边找到的腾达者，都是善于在权力竞技场和裙带网中钻营的人，而不是依靠勤勉，审慎，虔诚，对专业、品质和效率的执着，对知识、技术和商业问题的专注等等帮助人们在自由市场中取得成就的那些价值。
从这个竞技场中胜出的人，自然会对自己长期浸润其中的当地传统备感骄傲，他们还会利用赢得的权力和财富来复兴光大这些传统，以强化当地社会与全球秩序的隔离，同时将自己塑造成该传统的捍卫者以提升体制的合法性，假如他们控制的财富足够庞大，还可将该传统向外输出。
二战后的半个多世纪中，滚滚而来的石油美元不仅让沙特王族所属的瓦哈比教派（Wahhabism）在阿拉伯半岛取得统治地位，还推动这一原教旨主义教派蔓延于全球，仅法赫德（King Fahd）在位期间（1982-2005年），沙特政府至少投入了750亿美元推行瓦哈比， [38]在世界各地资助伊斯兰组织，兴办宗教机构，其中仅在非伊斯兰国家就兴办了200所伊斯兰学院，210个伊斯兰中心，1500座清真寺，2000所伊斯兰中小学，除此之外，还有众多海湾石油王子通过私人基金提供的资助；这些努力不仅逆转了此前一个多世纪伊斯兰世界的世俗化进程，也造就了众多酝酿极端主义的温床。 [39]
局部引力中心的存在，轻则给全球秩序带来离心倾向，重则滋生挑战该秩序的破坏性力量，可是，受制于主权原则，霸权者无法以武力威胁和政权更换来维护秩序，而只能以援助和制裁等和平手段笼络和扶助相对良性的政权，例如美国在戴维营协议（Camp David Accords）后为了稳住埃及，防止它挑动对以色列的战争，或倒向苏联阵营，1979至2003年间共提供了190亿美元军事援助和300亿美元经济援助。 [40]
正因为看透了这一点，有些政权为了避免美国对地区稳定过于安心，会故意暗中鼓动、培养或收容一些反秩序力量，让他们时不时惹出些麻烦，迫使美国更急切的寻找合作者以稳定局面，从而抬高自己在对美关系中的身价，只要不做的太过分，让美国人相信找不到比自己更好的替代者即可，例如，巴基斯坦军方长期庇护和支持塔利班等极端组织，即便在911后美国强力施压下也未停止，不久后更变本加厉，同时却享受着丰厚的美国援助。 [41]
还有些走得更远，直接成为秩序对抗者，他们或者周边没有重大威胁因而不需要美国的援助与保护，或者有其他大国撑腰；甚至这种直接对抗也不会断绝当权者从全球市场中继续受益的机会，除非他们将美国激怒到实施严厉禁运的程度，甚至即便在这种情况下，禁运也常因各种缝隙漏洞而无法将其慑服；在如今这个孤立主义再度回潮，主干联盟日渐松解的年代，已没有什么力量阻止人们走回各自熟悉的老路上去了。
注释：（其中所引文献详见〈参考文献〉）
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[2] Alfred Radcliffe-Brown (1922) 《安达曼岛人》。
[3] Renato Rosaldo (1980) 《伊隆戈人的猎头》。
[4]辉格(HS:5131)；Derek Freeman (1983)《玛格丽特·米德与萨摩亚》，第16章。
[5]辉格（2017）第I-5章。
[6] Wikipedia: International Brigades.
[7] John Gallagher (1982) ch.1.
[8] Charles Murray (2012) ch.3,4.
[9] Thomas C. Schelling (1978) Micromotives and Macrobehavior , ch.4,5.
[10] Benjamin Powell, “A Case against Child Labor Prohibitions”, Economic Development Bulletin , No. 21, July 29, 2014, Cato Institute.
[11] Douglas E. Schoen & Jessica Tarlov (2017) America in the Age of Trump , ch.4.
[12] Max Eden, “When Disruptive Students Are Coddled, the Whole Class Suffers”, Quillette , December 1, 2019.
[13]又称严格责任（strict liability）。
[14] Derek Headey & Harold Alderman, “Why living in a poor country means you have bad food choices”, The Conversation , August 29, 2019.
[15] Hipólito Nzwalo & Julie Cliff, “Konzo: From Poverty, Cassava, and Cyanogen Intake to Toxico-Nutritional Neurological Disease”, PLoS Negl Trop Dis , 5(6):e1051, 2011 Jun.
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[17] Wikipedia: Voyage of Greta Thunberg.
[18] marioalonso187, “Greta Starter Pack”, reddit.com , Dec 4, 2019.
[19] Wikipedia: Amazon HQ2#Long Island City.
[20] Wikipedia: List of US states by date of admission to the Union.
[21] Wikipedia: Annexation movements of Canada; Annexation Bill of 1866.
[22] David H. Fischer (1989).
[23] Wikipedia: All of Mexico Movement.
[24] Eric Sandberg (2013) A History of Alaska Population Settlement , Figure 3.
[25] Robert C. Schmitt (1977) Historical Statistics of Hawaii , Table 1.12.
[26] Niall Ferguson (2005) ch.4,6.
[27]辉格（2017）第III部分。
[28]更多分析见辉格(HS:6267)。
[29] Angus Deaton (2015) The Great Escape , ch.7.
[30] Wikipedia: Occupation of Japan.
[31] Wikipedia: Allied-occupied Germany.
[32] Wikipedia: List of United States Army installations in Germany; United States Forces Japan.
[33]更多分析见辉格(HS:653)。
[34] Francis Fukuyama (1992) The End of History and the Last Man .
[35] Alex Kotlowitz (2019) An American Summer .
[36] Anthony Walsh (2010) ch.3.
[37] Wikipedia: Suez Crisis.
[38] Wikipedia: International propagation of Salafism and Wahhabism.
[39] Dore Gold (2012) Hatred´s Kingdom , ch.8.
[40] Wikipedia: Egypt–United States relations.
[41] Sahar Khan, “Double Game: Why Pakistan Supports Militants and Resists US Pressure to Stop”, Policy Analysis , No.849, Cato Institute, September 20, 2018; Vanda Felbab-BrownFriday, “Why Pakistan supports terrorist groups, and why the US finds it so hard to induce change”, Order From Chaos , The Brookings Institution, January 5, 2018.
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